The cheat sheet: The NFL's early surprise has been the Minnesota wins
Best Bet
JETS vs. VIKINGS
Time: 8:30 a.m., London, NFL.
Line: Vikings by 2½.
Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 2-2/2-2; Vikings 4-0/4-0.
The Texans have been a spot-on comp for the Bears with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. Unlike pie-in-the-sky comps for teams with great coaches, better supporting casts or just a better quarterback prospect, the Texans were in no better position than the 2024 Bears when C.J. Stroud arrived last season — a first-year head coach, an unproven, first-time offensive coordinator, modest weapons and a rebuilt offensive line around Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil.
There was one potential flaw in the comp, though. The Texans played in the mediocre-at-best AFC South, where they went 4-2 last season en route to 10-7. The Bears play in the NFC North with the Packers, Lions and Vikings, who each have won a division title in the last three years.
Still, it didn’t seem like an impediment to the Bears’ rebuild. While they traditionally struggle against the Packers, the Bears traditionally play the Lions tougher than most — last season they lost in the final three minutes at Ford Field, then beat them convincingly at Soldier Field.
And the Vikings, who fell from 13-4 in 2022 to 7-10 last season after Kirk Cousins was injured in Week 8, looked headed to an even greater fall after Cousins left in free agency and seemed even more in a lurch after No. 10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason.
But maybe not.
The Vikings not only have stayed competitive after losing Cousins and defensive end Danielle Hunter (16.5 sacks last season) in free agency, they’re thriving under third-year coach Kevin O’Connell and second-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores. They’re 4-0, including victories over three contenders — the 49ers (23-17), Texans (34-7) and Packers (31-29 at Lambeau Field).
O’Connell, yet another Sean McVay protege — he was McVay’s offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021 — has worked wonders with Sam Darnold, the 2018 No. 3 overall draft pick who was a bust in six seasons with the Jets, Panthers and 49ers — 21-35 as a starter with a 78.3 passer rating.
With the Vikings, Darnold leads the NFL in passer rating (118.9) with a league-leading 11 touchdown passes to three interceptions.
The defense, 29th in scoring before Flores arrived, was 13th last season and is fourth through four games in 2024. Critics are waiting for the clock to strike midnight on Darnold, but it doesn’t look close right now.
Pick: Vikings 24, Jets 14.
TOP PLAYS
PANTHERS at BEARS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Bears by 4.
Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 1-3/1-3; Bears 2-2/2-1-1.
Outlook: The football gods seem determined to make a quarterback out of Caleb Williams whether the Bears are up to the job or not. After facing the 31st-ranked Colts and 32nd-ranked Rams, the Bears now get the 28th-ranked Panthers, who are allowing 32.3 points per game. Tough spot for ex-Bears QB Andy Dalton against a strong and balanced Bears defense.
Pick: Bears 31, Panthers 17.
BILLS at TEXANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bills by 1.
Total: 48.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 3-1/2-2; Texans 3-1/0-3-1.
Outlook: Bills are on tilt after getting humbled in a 35-10 loss to the Ravens — never recovering after allowing Derrick Henry’s 87-yard run on the Ravens’ first offensive play. Now they’re without Von Miller, who was suspended for violating the league’s personal-conduct polity. Miller isn’t the player he was but had three sacks in four games.
Pick: Bills 27, Texans 20.
PACKERS at RAMS
Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Packers by 3.
Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 2-2/2-2; Rams 1-3/1-3.
Outlook: After beating the Colts and Titans with Malik Willis at quarterback, the Packers lost to the Vikings 31-29 at Lambeau with Jordan Love back. Love’s rust showed early, as he threw two INTs in the first half as the Packers fell behind 28-0 before rallying. Love figures to be in a much better groove here.
Pick: Packers 34, Rams 17.
THE REST OF THE GAMES
DOLPHINS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Patriots by 1. Total: 37.
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 1-3/0-4; Patriots 1-3/1-2-1.
Outlook: The Dolphins’ offense wasn’t great with Tua Tagovailoa in Weeks 1-2 but has been abysmal since Tua went out with a concussion in Week 2 against the Bills — just 15 points in nine quarters. Tyler Huntley replaced Skylar Thompson last week and wasn’t any better. Tyreek Hill, who had seven catches for 140 yards in Week 1, has 10 for 87 yards in three games without Tagovailoa.
Pick: Patriots 17, Dolphins 13.
RAVENS at BENGALS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Ravens by 2½. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 2-2/2-2; Bengals 1-3/2-2.
Outlook: The Ravens can’t beat the Chiefs but do pretty well against all the other contenders with great/good quarterbacks — stomping the Bills and Josh Allen last week after beating the Cowboys and Dak Prescott in Week 3. Derrick Henry’s rushing totals have increased each week — 46, 84, 151 and 199 last week, including an 87-yard touchown. Joe Burrow is good, but doesn’t play defense.
Pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 24.
BROWNS at COMMANDERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Commanders by 3½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 1-3/1-3; Commanders 3-1/3-1.
Outlook: Surprise teams like the Commanders often hit the wall at some point. But the Commanders — third in scoring (30.3 ppg) behind rookie QB Jayden Daniels (107.4 rating, 82.1% completions) and OC Kliff Kingsbury after beating the Bengals (38-33) and Cardinals (42-14) — also have the most improved running game in the NFL. They’re up from 27th (93.6) in 2023 to third (169.3).
Pick: Commanders 26, Browns 22.
COLTS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 2-2/3-1; Jaguars 0-4/2-2.
Outlook: Both teams have been searching for elite quarterback play for the past several seasons, but the Jaguars are doing it with the same guy. Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, made the Pro Bowl in his second season (25 TDs, 8 INTs, 95.2), but has regressed since then. And now, coach Doug Pederson seems to be teetering.
Pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 17.
CARDINALS at 49ERS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 7½. Total: 50.
Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 1-3/2-2; 49ers 2-2/2-2.
Outlook: Underdogs of seven points or more are 5-2 SU/5-1-1 ATS this season. The Cardinals have beaten only the short-handed Rams (in a rout, 41-10), But their losses are to the Bills (3-1), Lions (3-1) and Commanders (3-1). Niners are getting healthier, though.
Pick: 49ers 30, Cardinals 23.
GIANTS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Seahawks by 6. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 1-3/1-2-1; Seahawks 3-1/1-2-1.
Outlook: The Giants perked up against the rival Cowboys last week. They seem more likely to revert to form here — Giants are 0-4 SU/ATS on the west coast over the last three seasons, losing to the Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers and Raiders. But it’s the NFL.
Pick: Giants 24, Seahawks 23.
RAIDERS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 36.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 2-2/2-2; Broncos 2-2/3-1.
Outlook: Sean Payton’s Broncos have recovered from an 0-2 start with rookie QB Bo Nix with victories over the Bucs and Jets, but their defense is doing the heavy lifting, allowing 16 points in the two wins.
Pick: Broncos 23, Raiders 19.
COWBOYS at STEELERS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Steelers by 2. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 2-2/1-2-1; Steelers 3-1/3-1.
Outlook: The Steelers wasted Justin Fields’ career-best 367 total yards and lost as a road favorite when Colts backup Joe Flacco threw 2 TDs. A tip for all you young sports bettors: Don’t punish the team that burned you.
Pick: Steelers 23, Cowboys 20.
SAINTS at CHIEFS
Time: 7:15 p.m., Monday, ESPN.
Line: Chiefs by 5. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 2-2/3-1; Chiefs 4-0/3-1.
Outlook: The Chiefs are still living a charmed life — winning by 7, 1, 5 and 7 points. They lost No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (24-288, 2 TDs) to a knee injury vs. the Chargers, but with Patrick Mahomes around, it’s never as bad as it looks.
Pick: Chiefs 19, Saints 17.