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Gender Gap Tracker Week 5: The Rust Belt-Sun Belt Divide

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Gender Gap Tracker Week 5: The Rust Belt-Sun Belt Divide

Only two national polls in the past week included breakdowns by gender, the fewest so far in the general election season.

Despite the paltry amount of data, I have still updated the Washington Monthly Gender Gap Tracker numbers for Week 5, which you can find below.

But the relative lull in national numbers gives us a chance to ask: Is the gender gap story any different in the swing states?

The short answer is: Yes.

While the national gender gap indicates a race tilted toward Kamala Harris, in several Sun Belt battlegrounds the gap is boosting Donald Trump.

First, here’s what’s leading the Washington Monthly website:

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To refresh: the Gender Gap Tracker follows both the Gender Gap—the distance between the margin among women and the margin among men—and the Gender Gap Tilt—the difference between the female lead and the male lead. Only polls with gender breakdowns are included.

To assess how the gender gap is shaping the presidential contest in the swing states, the Tracker examined swing state polls sampled during the last half of September, then compared them to national polls over the same period.

All nonpartisan polls with male and female data were included with one exception. AtlasIntel had a set of swing state polls last month which showed Trump winning the female vote and Harris winning the male vote in some states. Typically it’s not good practice to remove outliers from averages. But those results defied too much logic, so that pollster was left out of this analysis.

Here are the Gender Gap and Gender Gap Tilt numbers for polls sampled between September 15 and 30. (Please note that numbers don’t add up exactly because of the effects of rounding.)

NATIONAL

Overall average lead: Harris +2.4

Female average lead: Harris +10.7

Male average lead: Trump +6.5

Gender Gap: 17.2

Gender Gap Tilt: Harris +4.3

ARIZONA

Overall average lead: Trump +2.9

Female average lead: Harris +5.2

Male average lead: Trump +11.7

Gender Gap: 16.9

Gender Gap Tilt: Trump +6.5

GEORGIA

Overall average lead: Trump +1.4

Female average lead: Harris +9.1

Male average lead: Trump +13.6

Gender Gap: 22.6

Gender Gap Tilt: Trump +4.5

MICHIGAN

Overall average lead: Harris +2

Female average lead: Harris +15.3

Male average lead: Trump +13.2

Gender Gap: 28.5

Gender Gap Tilt: Harris +2.1

NEVADA

Overall average lead: Harris +0.1

Female average lead: Harris +4.7

Male average lead: Trump +6.5

Gender Gap: 11.2

Gender Gap Tilt: Trump +1.8

NORTH CAROLINA

Overall average lead: Trump +0.6

Female average lead: Harris +8.3

Male average lead: Trump +10.5

Gender Gap: 18.7

Gender Gap Tilt: Trump +2.2

PENNSYLVANIA

Overall average lead: Harris +0.5

Female average lead: Harris +13.7

Male average lead: Trump +13.1

Gender Gap: 26.8

Gender Gap Tilt: Harris +0.7

WISCONSIN

Overall average lead: Harris +1.3

Female average lead: Harris +15.5

Male average lead: Trump +13.6

Gender Gap: 29.1

Gender Gap Tilt: Harris +2.0

When comparing the battlegrounds to the national gender gap data, we see that the Gender Gap Tilt is:

* less favorable to Harris in every battleground compared to her +4.3 tilt nationwide.

* positive for Harris in every Rust Belt battleground, helping her hold on to small overall leads.

* positive for Trump in every Sun Belt battleground, helping him win small overall leads in all of them save for Nevada, just barely.

We also see that the Gender Gap is particularly wide in all three Rust Belt states. Why? Harris gains a higher share of the female vote, and Trump the male vote, in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin than their national averages.

HARRIS FEMALE VOTE SHARE

National 53.3%

Michigan 55.5%

Pennsylvania 55.5%

Wisconsin 56.9%

TRUMP MALE VOTE SHARE

National 51.6%

Michigan 54.2%

Pennsylvania 55%

Wisconsin 55.5%

Whereas in each of the Sun Belt states, Harris’s average share of female vote is slightly smaller than the national average, while Trump’s male share is larger.

HARRIS FEMALE VOTE SHARE

National 53.3%

Arizona 51.3%

Georgia 52.8%

Nevada 51.2%

North Carolina 52.9%

TRUMP MALE VOTE SHARE

National 51.6%

Arizona 55.1%

Georgia 55.4%

Nevada 51.9%

North Carolina 53.8%

Bottom line: While the Sun Belt gender gap favors Trump, if these numbers match the final outcome Harris would win the Electoral College 276-262, powered by a big Rust Belt women’s vote checking Trump’s strength with Rust Belt men.

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And now, your Week 5 Gender Gap Tracker. Note that these national numbers are different than the ones above because it covers a different time period.

WASHINGTON MONTHLY GENDER GAP TRACKER

OCTOBER 3 EDITION

GENDER GAP: 19.3 (change from last week: up 3.3)

GENDER GAP TILT: Harris +3.9 (0.4 shift toward Trump)

OVERALL AVERAGE

Harris: 49.1

Trump: 46.8

Margin: Harris +2.5 (0.2-point shift toward Trump)

FEMALE AVERAGE

Harris: 53.6

Trump: 42.0

Margin: Harris +11.6 (1.4-point shift toward Harris)