NFL spread picks, Week 5: The Denver Broncos have earned some trust, the Jets have not and more

Week 4 was not too shabby for our crew, excluding Charles Curtis and Prince Grimes. Everyone else finished .500 or better, but still only Blake and Christian maintain winning records on the season.

As we head into Week 5, the Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions all have a bye, but that won’t make picking against the spread any easier.

Or will it?

Our panel made consensus picks in four games on this week’s slate, including betting on a Denver Broncos win (and cover!).

Here’s a full look at the lines and picks for Week 5. All odds provided by BetMGM. 

All odds via BetMGM

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thursday Night)

Opening Line: Falcons -1.5

Blake Schuster: Buccaneers +1.5

Two division rivals coming off massive Week 4 wins meet on Thursday night. What could go wrong? Everything? Yeah, give me the points.

Prince Grimes: Falcons -1.5

Big Tyler Allgeier game loading if Bijan Robinson can’t go, and maybe still even if Robinson can go.

Charles Curtis: Buccaneers +1.5

Gonna be a close one, so I’ll take the points.

Cory Woodroof: Falcons -1.5

I’ve watched a lot of Falcons-Bucs games over the years. They usually split outside of that whole Tom Brady thing. Tampa Bay lost at home and won away last year, so I’ll say it’s flipped this year. Atlanta wins this one while TB figures out its injury issues, and TB wins at home in a couple of weeks.

Robert Zeglinski: Buccaneers +1.5

By the end of the year, I think the Falcons are a clear and solid playoff contender. But they’re still figuring out who they are. Right now, the sound and tough Buccaneers don’t have that problem.

Christian D’Andrea: Falcons -1.5

Atlanta beat an NFC South rival last week at home despite a weak showing from Kirk Cousins. I don’t love this pick, but I do like pretending I’ve learned from the past.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets (London)

Opening Line: Jets -4

Blake Schuster: Vikings -3

Minnesota is the best-coached team in the NFL right now. A wild, but accurate statement.

Prince Grimes: Vikings -3

I like the under more, but New York’s offense doesn’t yet seem equipped to beat good defenses.

Charles Curtis: Vikings -3

The Sam Darnold Revenge Game narrative has begun.

Cory Woodroof: Jets +3

Last week showed that Minnesota is mortal, even if it still won. That Jets defense could be the first real back-to-Earth moment for the 2024 Vikings.

Robert Zeglinski: Vikings -3

It should be real amusing watching 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers try and figure out where a pass-rusher is coming next in Brian Flores’ defensive scheme that has already confounded better AND younger quarterbacks.

Christian D’Andrea: Vikings -3

Is Minnesota three points better than New York on a neutral field? Seems that way. The last time Aaron Rodgers played in London he lost to the 2022 Giants — a different surprising team led by a counted-out quarterback.

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers

Opening Line: Bears -5.5

Blake Schuster: Bears -3.5

Remember when the Bears announced Andy Dalton as QB1 over Justin Fields? Anyways, Caleb Williams is starting to adapt and a fierce Chicago defense is finally getting help from Chicago’s offense.

Prince Grimes: Bears -3.5

Chicago’s offense is slowly coming along, but this is more about the struggles I expect Carolina to have against Chicago’s defense.

Charles Curtis: Bears -3.5

The Andy Dalton Revenge Game is…no, kidding. I think this is a confidence builder for the Bears.

Cory Woodroof: Bears -3.5

The Panthers are playing much better with Andy Dalton, but the defense is a point of concern that the Bears could exploit at home.

Robert Zeglinski: Bears -3.5

Andy Dalton’s revival of the Panthers’ offense came at the hands of two of the worst defenses in pro football. The Bears, by contrast, have en elite unit capable of shutting the door on anyone. Also, this is another pretty favorable matchup for Caleb Williams.

Christian D’Andrea: Bears -3.5

Andy Dalton faced the league’s 18th and 27th ranked defenses in his rise back to prominence. Now he gets a top five unit on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

Opening Line: Bengals -1.5

Blake Schuster: Ravens -2.5

The Bengals have the seventh-worst defense against the run and Derrick Henry is wide awake now. Good luck, Cincy.

Prince Grimes: Ravens -2.5

The Ravens got Derrick Henry going against Buffalo, and I don’t think he’s slowing down this week.

Charles Curtis: Ravens -2.5

The Bengals are just not the best right now, and the Ravens have figured some stuff out. Simple.

Cory Woodroof: Ravens -2.5

Baltimore woke up, and the rest of the NFL should be on alert. The Bengals haven’t been as sharp this season, so getting this game so early isn’t ideal.

Robert Zeglinski: Bengals +2.5

I’m not sure Cincy can stop anyone, but Joe Burrow has been dicing everyone up and I don’t see the ceiling caving in on the Bengals just yet.

Christian D’Andrea: Bengals +2.5

Total gut call. September is over. Cincinnati can be good again.

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Opening Line: Dolphins -4.5

Blake Schuster: Dolphins +1

Imagine telling yourself a month ago the Pats would be favored in this game despite Drake Maye still riding the bench. I don’t know what to make of Miami without Tua, but I know the Patriots don’t have a strong QB either and have far fewer weapons than the Dolphins.

Prince Grimes: Patriots -1

It’s amazing how bad the Dolphins look without a quarterback who nobody seems to be sure how good he is.

Charles Curtis: Patriots -1

Sheesh. The Dolphins are broken.

Cory Woodroof: Dolphins +1

The New England offensive line is awful, and Miami has enough talent up front to make this interesting. Don’t expect a lot of points.

Robert Zeglinski: Patriots -1

Dear. God. Tua Tagovailoa is missed. I’ll leave it at that.

Christian D’Andrea: Patriots -1

What a gross game. Give me the home team, I guess.

Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns

Opening Line: Browns -3

Blake Schuster: Browns +3.5

Back-to-back stunning games for Jayden Daniels has the hype in Washington reaching dangerous levels. So of course I’m betting on a disappointing home loss to an inferior team.

Prince Grimes: Commanders -3.5

It pains me to say the Commanders have their guy at QB, but they do. And he’s good enough to help them cover this number against a bad Browns team.

Charles Curtis: Commanders -3.5

The Browns are also broken.

Cory Woodroof: Commanders -3.5

Washington is the feel-good story of the NFL right now, and Cleveland stinks. Keep the good times rolling, Commanders. The rookie wall may catch up eventually, but not now.

Robert Zeglinski: Commanders -3.5

Nothing about this morose Browns season suggests they’re about to derail arguably the hottest quarterback and offense in pro football. These are some dreary times on the Lake Erie lakefront.

Christian D’Andrea: Commanders -3.5

Jayden Daniels probably can’t carve up the Browns defense like he did the Cardinals. But have you seen the quarterback Cleveland keeps trotting out and owes $100+ million? Deshaun Watson, once accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct, has been the league’s 46th-best quarterback (out of 49) since joining the team.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5

Blake Schuster: Colts +3

Everyone remembers what Joe Flacco was able to do with the Browns last year, right?

Prince Grimes: Colts +3

The Colts are undefeated against the spread as underdogs, and they’ll keep that up here, if not win outright.

Charles Curtis: Colts +3

They’re underdogs? Really? I’ll take the points here, gladly.

Cory Woodroof: Jaguars -3.

The Jaguars are desperate, as a loss here could trigger major changes in the franchise. The Colts are very disappointing this year and aren’t sure who they’ll field at quarterback on Sunday. Let’s say Jacksonville does just enough to eek out a win.

Robert Zeglinski: Jaguars -3

Jacksonville was this close to upsetting the Texans last Sunday, the supposed best team in the AFC South. And let’s be serious: what have Anthony Richardson’s Colts done to warrant supreme confidence against anyone?

Christian D’Andrea: Colts +3

I’m not sure Jacksonville should be giving points to anyone at this stage, even if this is a great opportunity for its first win of 2024.

Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Texans -1.5

Blake Schuster: Bills -1

A letdown against the Ravens was so entirely predictable that I correctly predicted it last week. Now we’ll get a proper shootout between CJ Stroud and Josh Allen.

Prince Grimes: Texans +1

Joe Mixon is finally back! And while Houston won’t be able to replicate exactly what Baltimore did to Buffalo last week, that’s a nice blueprint to have.

Charles Curtis: Texans +1

The Bills are a pretty good team but this is the kind of game a contender should win by at least a field goal.

Cory Woodroof: Bills -1

This will be close as heck, but I like Buffalo to rebound after coming off a difficult loss to Baltimore.

Robert Zeglinski: Bills -1

Buffalo’s biggest weakness are linebackers who can’t adequately fill their gaps, as evidenced by the Ravens steamrolling them. This should not be an issue against a Texans team that can’t run the ball. Sorry, Stefon Diggs, your “revenge” will have to wait.

Christian D’Andrea: Texans +1

The Houston receiving corps vs. the Buffalo secondary is the kind of mismatch that can make up for the Texans’ lack of a run game. Oh, and Joe Mixon is coming back, so that should make things at least a little easier on the ground.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Opening Line: 49ers -9.5

Blake Schuster: 49ers -7.5

I am, for the first time this year, fading the Cardinals. I don’t think they’re a bad team, but they’re not strong enough to keep with the great teams yet.

Prince Grimes: 49ers -7.5

The Cardinals just lost to the Commanders by 28.

Charles Curtis: 49ers -7.5

I still have high hopes for the Cardinals offense, but not this week.

Cory Woodroof: 49ers -7.5

The Cardinals are my biggest NFL disappointment outside of the Cowboys. Maybe they’ll figure it out? Against San Francisco, I’m less sure, at least for this week.

Robert Zeglinski: 49ers -7.5

Kyle Shanahan has been watching tape of the Cardinals’ defense and laughing all week.

Christian D’Andrea: 49ers -7.5

Both San Francisco’s home wins have come by 13-plus points. Arizona is better than the Patriots, but probably not the Jets.

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Opening Line: Broncos -1

Blake Schuster: Broncos -3

Who knows how bad the vibes in Las Vegas will be by the time this one kicks off. Give me the team at home coming off a massive win against the Jets.

Prince Grimes: Broncos -3

Denver’s defense looks insanely good, which is bad for a Gardner Minshew with no Davante Adams to throw to.

Charles Curtis: Broncos -3

The Raiders don’t have much going on especially with Davante Adams hurt.

Cory Woodroof: Broncos -3

What is going on with the Raiders right now? How are the Broncos 2-2? This is a weird season. Broncos get to 3-2.

Robert Zeglinski: Broncos -3

Denver has a playoff-caliber defense. The Raiders have nothing playoff-caliber as they prepare to trade another veteran All-Pro in as many years.

Christian D’Andrea: Broncos -3

What’s the over/under on this game? 12?

Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Rams -1.5

Blake Schuster: Packers -3.5

Did you know California produces more dairy annually than Wisconsin? Anyways, it took Jordan Love exactly two quarters to shake off all the rust after sitting since Week 1. The Rams are in trouble.

Prince Grimes: Packers -3.5

The Rams don’t have the firepower to keep up with Green Bay right now.

Charles Curtis: Packer -3.5

Jordan Love is legit!

Cory Woodroof: Packers -3.5

I believe in Green Bay to be very good once Jordan Love gets settled back in. Los Angeles is vulnerable. Expecting a Pack win.

Robert Zeglinski: Rams +3.5

The Packers are solid but they have not earned enough faith to take them to cover the spread against Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. That Green Bay defense looks like literal Swiss Cheese sometimes.

Christian D’Andrea: Rams +3.5

The Packers aren’t quite trustable, especially with the league’s worst kicker taking points off the board on a regular basis.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5

Blake Schuster: Seahawks -6

This line could be double and I’d still take it. The Seahawks at home, with this offense, is a steal.

Prince Grimes: Seahawks -6

Seattle’s offense shouldn’t have a problem putting up points on this Giants defense.

Charles Curtis: Seahawks -6

The Giants have had some flashes of cover-ability, but I’m not buying that this week.

Cory Woodroof: Seahawks -6

Seattle may win the NFC West at this rate.

Robert Zeglinski: Seahawks -6

Geno Smith is a surgeon and we don’t appreciate him nearly enough. Just the absolute definition of accuracy and poise.

Christian D’Andrea: Seahawks -6

Geno Smith’s gonna be playing mad at home against a defense that is, statistically, similar to the one he just put up a season-high 29 points against.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sunday Night)

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5

Blake Schuster: Cowboys +2.5

Massive CeeDee Lamb game loading. You’ve been warned.

Prince Grimes: Steelers -2.5

Pittsburgh’s defense is much better than what they showed against the Colts and Joe Flacco. They’ll be flying around mad in this one to prove it.

Charles Curtis: Steelers -2.5

Can’t bet on the Cowboys against this defense.

Cory Woodroof: Steelers -2.5

This will be a weird game, but that Pittsburgh defense is no joke. The Cowboys defense will be down a lot of pass-rushing help, and Justin Fields will benefit from that.

Robert Zeglinski: Cowboys +2.5

The more the Steelers’ defense potentially falters, the more Justin Fields has to play like a dropback passer. That … is not sustainable for Pittsburgh.

Christian D’Andrea: Cowboys +2.5

Dallas has been light on chaos and will be without Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence, which, oh no. But much of the Steelers’ offensive line is hurt, so even a second-string Cowboys pass rush can introduce enough panic to the pocket to force Justin Fields into some game-changing mistakes.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints (Monday Night)

Opening Line: Chiefs -8

Blake Schuster: Saints +5

Chiefs Devil Magic will deliver a win to Kansas City, but the Saints have the horses to keep it one-possession game.

Prince Grimes: Chiefs -5

KC is the defensive team we don’t think of as a defensive team. But they are, and I expect them to make life difficult for Derek Carr.

Charles Curtis: Chiefs -5

Not loving what I see from the Saints as of late.

Cory Woodroof: Chiefs -5

Patrick Mahomes wins, folks.

Robert Zeglinski: Saints +5

The Chiefs have no receivers and New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the game. I was already mightily unimpressed with Kansas City’s offense before the injuries.

Christian D’Andrea: Saints +5

The Saints have played everyone tough. The Chiefs haven’t blown anyone away.