How the Middle East conflict could influence the US election – and why Arab Americans in swing states might vote for Trump

As we near the first anniversary of the October 7 attack on Israel, the conflict in the Middle East has escalated significantly. Iran just launched nearly 200 missiles on Israel, and Israel has continued its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza.

In addition to the assassination of top Hezbollah commanders, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel has struck hundreds of targets in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa and the suburbs of Beirut in the past few days. It has also expanded the conflict to include a limited ground invasion into Lebanon.

Meanwhile, despite ongoing efforts by the US, the possibility of some kind of ceasefire in Gaza and the wider region seems ever more remote.

After the Iranian missile strikes, a US state department spokesman said: “We are not going to give up on reaching a ceasefire in Gaza because we believe it is the best way to free the hostages.” But he later added, referring to Hamas, “you need both parties to engage and right now we have a refusal to engage by one of those parties”.

It looks more and more likely that there will be no political win for President Joe Biden in the Middle East before the November 5 election, as his team had clearly been hoping. Some argue that this is partly because Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping that Donald Trump wins in November, and that he could then draw the US into a confrontation with Iran.

Ceasefire blocked

The US seemed to be making some headway on a ceasefire in July. But then came the assassination of Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran (which Israel has not admitted to).

Some have argued that this was not only an attempt to draw Iran into the conflict, but a clear blow to the chances of a ceasefire. The more pragmatic Haniyeh was soon replaced by the more extremist Hamas commander, Yahya Sinwar.

The US was again hopeful of a peace deal in September, but Netanyahu torpedoed the deal with last-minute demands. These included for armed men be barred from returning to northern Gaza during an eventual ceasefire, and that Israel retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow band along Gaza’s border with Egypt.

Reports suggested that Netanyahu was deliberately undermining negotiations and using delay tactics over the summer. But what is the political purpose of delaying peace?

Read more: Iran's leaders have everything to lose in a direct war with Israel. Why take such a massive risk?

Netanyahu is banking on Trump winning the election, and having a US partner that is easier to manipulate than Biden. Netanyahu has boasted that he was able to convince Trump to exit the Iran nuclear deal, a historic deal engineered by the Obama administration in 2015 to lift economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme. It was considered by many to be a step towards global peace.

Trump’s controversial decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem — which Palestinians also claim as their capital – was also a symbolic win for Netanyahu and the Israeli right.

Arab-American voting patterns

Despite Trump’s unconditional support for Israel, many Arab Americans are more likely to vote for Trump (or at least vote against Kamala Harris) in November.

Jewish American voters have traditionally tended to vote for the Democratic ticket, with about 70% of Jewish citizens identifying as Democrats. This is important as there are sizeable Jewish communities in swing states such as Pennsylvania (with 433,000), Florida (with 672,000), and Georgia (with 141,000).

Recent polls show that 72% of Jewish voters back Harris against Trump. And while 75% of American Jews claimed that Israel is important to them, it ranked only 9th on a list of 11 issues in terms of importance to shaping their vote.

The same can’t be said for the Arab-American communities, who have been devastated by the conflict in Gaza (and now Lebanon) and are angered by Biden’s response to Israel. While the US has used diplomatic pressure to agitate for a ceasefire, it also recently sold Israel another US$20 billion (£15.08 billion) in fighter jets and other weapons. This is one of the largest military packages since the beginning of the Gaza war.

Given a list of ten issues and asked to choose the three most important, 60% of Arab Americans polled chose Gaza, and 57% said the war in Gaza would influence their vote. This may explain why nearly 80% of Arab American voters have an unfavourable view of Biden (based on a poll taken in May). Only 55% have an unfavourable view of Trump.

Though Arab-Americans don’t necessarily like Trump, they cannot stomach supporting an administration that failed to prevent the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. They may either not vote or vote for a third-party candidate.

And Netanyahu is banking on this issue affecting the election in Trump’s favour. Arab Americans constitute a critical voting bloc in swing states, such as Pennsylvania (126,000 Arab Americans) and Michigan (392,000 Arab Americans).

It’s likely that the Jewish American vote from 2020 to 2024 won’t change, but Arab Americans supported Biden nationally with 64% support in 2020, and in the key state of Michigan provided Biden with almost 70% support. This could tip the balance against Harris in a state that Biden won with only 154,000 votes.

Many Arab American voters are not convinced that Harris represents a departure from Biden — and in a poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations in Michigan in August, only 12% of Muslim American voters in that state support Harris. These voters are demanding a ceasefire.

But we won’t see a ceasefire anytime soon. Prior to the October 7 attacks on Israel, Netanyahu was fighting for his own political survival. Netanyahu, who is still on trial for criminal charges for fraud, bribery and breach of trust, has repeatedly discredited democratic institutions and was resisting public pressure to step down. After the attacks in Lebanon, Netanyahu is now rebounding in the polls in Israel. Netanyahu is facing less internal pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza, and is gaining more confidence that aggression will pay off.

In our view, the more aggressive Netanyahu’s government is (both in Lebanon and in Gaza), the greater the likelihood that Trump will be elected. This all works perfectly for Netanyahu as it could allow him to look beyond Lebanon and target his biggest obsession: Iran.

Natasha Lindstaedt is one of the panellists at an upcoming US election discussion, America Votes – Why the World is Holding its Breath, organised by The Conversation and partners Campaign for Social Science & Sage. Please do register to come along here.

Faten Ghosn has received funding from from the National Science Foundation and Department of Defense and U.S. Army Research Office/Army Research Laboratory under the Minerva Research Initiative on topics not related to the article. Nonetheless, the views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the National Science Foundation, Department of Defense or the Army Research Office/Army Research Laboratory.

Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.