MP's Pre-Offseason Thoughts

There was a 2-3 day window after the season ended where all the puff pieces from the Tampa Times had me wondering if maybe, just maybe, the Rays might look to turn it around next year, but then I remembered how the Rays focused on receiving guys who are 2-3 years out at the Deadline instead of MLB ready players, and then DSG announced it was cancelling the Rays broadcast deal. I now expect this offseason to be painful. The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that the Rays will end the offseason with a much smaller payroll and much lower odds of making the playoffs in 2025 than they currently have. Just consider the following:

1. Franco – Depending on how his legal situation plays out, the Rays could be forced to honor his contract in full going forward, beginning with the $8.45MM owed in 2025. They have to budget for that possibility.
   
   
2. DSG – The loss of their broadcast deal probably shot a $50MM hole in the Rays budget. Now, I am sure they will reach a short-term deal with Spectrum and other cable providers to continue broadcasting Rays games for the 2025 season, but it will likely be for less than the $50MM they lost (particularly after expenses).
   
   
3. Pitching – Even with the DSG news, the Rays present/future relies on good pitching, and they cannot afford to be penny wise, pound foolish here. Littell gets traded because he’s in the last year of his deal. That’s really all you need to know about his future with the club. That leaves 6 legit arms in McClanny, Rasmussen, Springs, Bradley, Baz, and Pepiot. With Ras only expected to make $2MM next year, he could easily stay in the Pen as part of an elite high-leverage group (to be returned to the rotation in case of emergency only). With Springs on IL to end the year and McClanny not having returned to pitching yet, I doubt either are candidates to be traded in the offseason, even with Springs making $10.5MM next year. To save money, the Rays trade Fairbanks, Poche, Alexander, Littell, and maybe even Cleavinger. That’s a lot of lefties to trade, but with the emergence of Monty, the return of McClanny, Springs and Lovelady next year, and guys like Lopez, Rock and Seymour in AAA, it’s do-able. Rays’ pitching costs around $25.5MM next year.
   
   
4. Offense – The Rays need to add 2-3 legit bats to contend next year as is, and those cost money. As I look over the roster, I just don’t see where they add 2-3 legit bats economically and without blocking top prospects. More likely than not, they will seek "upgrades" at positions of need via trades, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if those trades brought in more low minor types than AAA/MLB types, given what we saw at the Deadline. With money being a big issue (and a ready made excuse to cut costs to the bone), I could see a roster like this in the Spring:

· 1B/DH (Aranda, Shenton, B.Seymour and some young RHB brought in via trade) – With the loss of their broadcast deal, I have to believe there is a pretty good chance that both Diaz and B.Lowe are traded this offseason. Diaz is certainly getting traded. The Rays tried to trade him at the Deadline, and those discussions will pick back up in the offseason. Rolling with all rookies and 2nd year players is probably going to be ugly, but with Morgan being a potential 2025 call-up and Isaac coming up in 2026, I could see the Rays go this way in a down 2025 to save money.

· 2B (Mead, Palacios and Caballero) - This position needs improvement if B.Lowe is playing less than 50% of the time at 2B, which will probably be the case in 2025 if he is back, but with the Rays in cost-cutting mode and B.Taylor a year out, I doubt we see the Rays try to improve on Mead, Palacios and Caballero. At least this way we should finally see Mead get a real chance in the Majors, and he hits LHP well if nothing else.

· SS (Walls/Caballero) - The Walls/Caballero pairing is awful but there is not much the Rays can do to fix it. SS is a hard position to fill on a budget. The Rays took a shot with Caballero and it didn't pan out. C.Williams is the future, and that future is about a year away.

· 3B (JC and Caballero) - Caminero is the present and the future and will play most days.

· C (Rort and RHB) - I expect to see a RHB brought in to back up Rort next year, but the Rays are unlikely to spend much money on a backup. Rays also have Keegan and Piper to consider, both of whom are RHB and should be in AAA. I don’t know why Pinto is in the doghouse, but he’s probably traded this offseason.

· LF (Morel and Palacios) - This is an obvious spot to upgrade if the Rays want to compete in 2025, and it could happen via trade for a player in pre-arb; however, the Rays probably want to see what Morel can do after a full offseason with the club, and the obvious spot for C.Simpson to start his ML career is in LF (with a move to CF in 2026, which is how the Rays handled KK his first year up (though KK played mostly RF that year)). Morgan could also play LF given the LHB overload at 1B/DH with Aranda, Shenton and Seymour.

· CF (Siri and Deluca) - It's hard to find good hitting CFers with elite defense. The Rays probably plan to stick with Siri for one more year with the hope that Simpson can take over in 2026. I don’t think Deluca is a legit long-term option for everyday playing time, but I’d love to be proved wrong.

· RF (J.Lowe) - I expect J.Lowe to rebound next year and I'm sure the Rays will give him every opportunity to do so. That means no outside upgrade brought in for RF.

Total cost for the position player side of the active roster is a pathetic $12.5MM, assuming Siri, Walls and Rort are the only guys who aren’t-pre-arb and that Diaz and B.Lowe are both traded. Rays still need to budget $8.45MM for Franco though.

1. Overall Payroll - If the Rays really want to cut to the bone, I think they can start out OD with a roster that costs $38MM (active roster) to $59MM (40 man). They could even trade Springs mid-year and save another $5MM or so. In fact, that's probably a pretty likely expectation if the Rays "tank" next year, as they could move Ras back to the rotation or call up Seymour (or whoever remains of Rock, Lopez, Wilcox, Workman, or Hunley) to replace Springs.
   
   
2. Big Picture – The Rays went 26-30 after the Trade Deadline this year (46.4 winning percentage). I suspect that’s a pretty good estimate (75 total wins) for how the Rays will perform next year without Yandy (who hit 142 wRC+ after the Deadline) and B.Lowe (who only hit 93 wRC+ after the Deadline). Neither of Yandy or B.Lowe had good years in 2024, so it won’t kill the Rays’ offense if they don’t return next year. Plus, I suspect J.Lowe, Morel, Caminero and others will play better in 2025, and the pitching should be a real strength for all of next year. The Rays like to pretend they are the smartest guys in the room, and if we’re all being honest with ourselves, they usually are. I suspect the Rays made their moves at the Deadline this year knowing DSG could terminate their broadcast deal and Franco might head to trial with an uncertain outcome. Both happened and it doesn’t appear that either will blow up the Rays’ plan for 2025. Everything they’ve done suggests they are making moves for a window opening in 2026. 2025 could be painful, but good times are around the corner.