Projected 2025 Royals arbitration salaries

The Royals have a lot of young players - how much will they make?

The Royals have a young team, and that means having to deal with several arbitration-eligible players as they plan for next year’s team. Salaries for arbitration-eligible players can be hard to predict, but MLB Trade Rumors has a formula they use to project the salaries that eligible players can earn, and they have released their projections for next year.

The Royals have ten arbitration-eligible players for next year: Kris Bubic, Hunter Harvey, Carlos Hernández, Kyle Isbel, Daniel Lynch IV, MJ Melendez, John Schreiber, Brady Singer, Josh Taylor, and Kyle Wright.

*-numbers from Cot’s Contracts and MLB Trade Rumors. Daniel Lynch’s salary is pro-rated for the time he spent in the big leagues.

Players are eligible for arbitration once they accrue at least three or more years of service time (plus certain “Super Two” players) but are not yet eligible for free agency. Clubs have to decide whether or not to “tender” the player a contract. If a player is “non-tendered”, they become free agents that can sign with any team.

If the player is tendered, the two sides negotiate on a salary, and if they are unable to come to an agreement by February, each side submits a figure to an independent arbitrator. The arbitrator will pick a side to win, and cannot split the difference. Salaries depend largely on service time, with Arbitration 1 players (players in their first year of the process) generally receiving 30 percent of market value, Arbitration 2 players receiving 50 percent of market value, and Arbitration 3 players receiving 70 percent of market value. Players cannot receive more than a 20 percent pay cut.

Contracts for arbitration-eligible players used to be non-guaranteed, meaning they could still be cut in spring training without teams obligated to pay the entire salary, but now those contracts are fully guaranteed.

For the Royals, Brady Singer will be the most expensive player, but also the most likely to be tendered. Kyle Isbel and Kris Bubic each had solid seasons that will warrant retaining their services. The Royals need bullpen help and hoped John Schreiber and Hunter Harvey could help more than they did, so expect them to be tendered. The Royals knew Kyle Wright would miss all of this year with injury, acquiring him with the hopes he could contribute in 2025.

Josh Taylor is not even on the 40-man roster anymore, so you have to wonder if the Royals feel he is worth $1 million after numerous injuries and an inability to throw strikes when he is healthy. He seems likely to be the only non-tender candidate, but the Royals could surprise if the cut bait with some inconsistent players. Daniel Lynch IV and Carlos Hernández have had ups and downs in their careers, but pitched well in September in relief roles and will not command high salaries. The Royals will likely tender MJ Melendez, but he has put forth a pretty disappointing career thus far, and its unclear how he fits into the team’s plans going forward.

According to Cot’s Contracts, the Royals have $74 million in contract obligations next year, but $16 million is to Michael Wacha, who is likely to reject his player option. Bobby Witt Jr. would have been eligible for arbitration for the first time this year, but he signed a long-term deal that could be worth up to $288 million over 11 years.