NFL straight-up picks, Week 5: Can Texans send Josh Allen's Bills into a spiral?

We got back on the bicycle last week with a 13-win slate across our Week 4 straight up picks. Our reward for carving a path through a minefield of NFL games is… another week loaded with coin flip matchups.

As of Thursday, nine of Week 5’s 14 games have betting spreads of a field goal or less. Two more clock in at 3.5 points. That leaves a lot of uncertainty as teams across the league begin to truly find out what they are in 2024.

Let’s try and parse that out. Last week’s success looked a little like my 2023, where I ended the year as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds — in fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 5 picks (minus Meghan, who is off):

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Chicago Bears (-3.5) over the Carolina Panthers

Why I like this pick:

Caleb Williams is beginning to find his rhythm. The Bears have proven they’re capable of winning even when he doesn’t. Last year’s top three defense is playing like a top five unit. The Panthers got a nice bounce with Andy Dalton’s takeover, but he remains very much Andy Dalton. Carolina’s defense has looked as overmatched as you’d expect against good passing offenses.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Dalton’s competence has made some of the Panthers’ offseason acquisitions look smart, as Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette are each competent after being non-factors with Bryce Young. Carolina just nearly racked up 400 yards against the Bengals, so if Williams doesn’t come to play they should be able to score enough to win a 14-10 game or something similar.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 2-2 (.500)

Hardest favorite to back: Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why I like this pick:

In a battle between two mid defenses, I… kinda like Atlanta’s playmakers more than the Baker Mayfield/Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Bucky Irving??? combo. Kirk Cousins underwhelmed last week and still won at home. The Falcons have the receiving depth to stretch the field and put the onus on Tampa’s cornerbacks instead of its all-world safety.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Bucs are capable of rising up and crushing you under the weight of your own mistakes with quickness. The Falcons, historically, are a fertile garden of those moments. Tampa Bay beat Atlanta in Mercedes-Benz Stadium last season in a game in which Mayfield didn’t even complete half his pass attempts. This is a gut pick in a season in which my gut was all bad bacteria and not good Jamie Lee Curtis yogurt bacteria in Weeks 1-3.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 2-2 (.500)

Upset pick of the week: Houston Texans (+1) over the Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen may not be mortal. C.J. Stroud has gone through the kind of sophomore learning curve you’d expect from an NFL quarterback compiling a useful database of game film. Josh Allen. Josh Allen.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 1-3 (.250)