Hezbollah: Down But Not Out

That Hezbollah was dealt an unprecedentedly painful blow with the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah is not up for debate. While Israel succeeded in taking out the Lebanese movement’s former leader, Abbas al-Musawi in 1992, the latter’s tenure was short-lived, having been appointed as secretary general of Hezbollah only one year prior to his assassination. Nasrallah, by contrast, sat at the helm of the organization for 32 years, during which it witnessed its golden era.  Under his leadership, Hezbollah military operations forced Israel to end its occupation of Lebanon in May 2000. A 33-day war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 ended in what was at best a draw for the Israeli side, shattering the image it once enjoyed as an invincible military and greatly boosting the popularity of the Lebanese movement in the Arab world. 

The assassination of Nasrallah is the culmination of a security-intelligence war waged by Israel that is unparalleled in recent history. A mass detonation of pager devices belonging to Hezbollah members left 12 people dead—including innocent civilians—and thousands injured. While Israeli leaders denied culpability, Lebanese and American officials have revealed that Israel was behind the late September operation.  

Senior Hezbollah commanders, including the head of the elite Radwan forces, were meanwhile killed in an Israeli precision strike following the pager operation. The assassination took place as the commanders had gathered for a brief meeting which was held two-floors underground in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

This string of operations no doubt leaves a void within Hezbollah, creating unprecedented challenges for the organization. It would be a mistake, however, to view this latest episode as the beginning of the end for the Lebanese movement. According to some recent estimates, the number of Hezbollah fighters may exceed 50,000. (Nasrallah himself had put that number at 100,000). 

It also continues to possess a formidable weapons arsenal despite the recent Israeli onslaught. Israeli military officials themselves cast doubt on the claims that half of Hezbollah’s rocket capabilities had been taken out in the latest round of hostilities. Most estimates put the number of the Lebanese movement’s rockets and missiles within the 120,000 to 200,000 range.  It is also likely that Hezbollah continues to have in its stockpile precision guided munitions which it has yet to put to use.

The elimination of the old guard also paves way for the Lebanese movement’s younger generation to assume a more prominent role within the organization. This may improve Hezbollah preparedness in the face of a far more technologically advanced enemy. Unlike the older commanders, a large number of these youth are educated college graduates who could potentially put more emphasis on the technological intelligence element that Israel has used to its advantage

The neutralization of Nasrallah in particular could end up actually swelling the ranks of Hezbollah. While crushing the morale of the organization’s supporters was probably one of Israel’s goals behind the assassination, Nasrallah’s status as an idol amongst his followers may actually galvanize those who support Hezbollah but are nonetheless not active members to seek to join its ranks given their thirst for revenge.  Should such a scenario play out, Israel’s assassination may turn out to be a strategic miscalculation.

Hezbollah’s command and control also appears to be somewhat intact despite its recent losses. It continues to carry out cross border military attacks that have reached as far as the Israeli port city of Haifa. The absence of a leader at the helm, however, does remain an important missing link in Hezbollah’s command-and-control structure.

“The absence of a secretary general does impact the command and control,” explained retired Lebanese army general Elias Farhat in an interview with RS. 

“The units of the resistance are launching missiles at certain targets and specific times and in specific numbers,” he noted, but added that “for the command and control to be complete a new secretary general must be chosen”.

As a result, the immediate focus for the Lebanese movement will be on filling its leadership vacuum.  In the first speech by a senior Hezbollah official since the assassination of Nasrallah, the organization’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, announced that a new secretary general will soon be appointed. 

Whether or not Hezbollah publicly announces the identity of its new leader in the near future is another matter. The movement may be reluctant to do so, given how Israel has taken out its senior ranks. That Hezbollah swiftly denied the media claims that it had chosen the head of its executive council Hashem Safieddine to succeed Nasrallah further illustrates its reluctance to publicly disclose its new leadership. 

On the Lebanese domestic front, the assassination of Nasrallah is unlikely to significantly weaken Hezbollah. Unlike in previous times, the number of the organization’s domestic enemies has greatly diminished. The former Prime Minister Saad Hariri issued a statement condemning the assassination, describing it as a cowardly act and calling for Lebanese unity. Hariri’s stance as the most popular Lebanese Sunni politician is not surprising; the Sunni–Shiite divide that appeared to pose a real danger to the nation’s social fabric during the war in Syria has given way to joint solidarity with the Palestinian suffering in Gaza.

This solidarity has even taken the form of joint military collaboration against Israel. The Lebanese Sunni party Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya has joined Hezbollah in the cross-border operations against Israel in support of Gaza.

Other prominent Lebanese political figures who were once staunch enemies of Hezbollah have since changed their position. These include the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who had spearheaded the anti-Hezbollah campaign following the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, the former premier. Commenting on the assassination of Nasrallah, Jumblatt even said the late Hezbollah leader has “joined the long caravan of martyrs on the road to Palestine”.

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