Know your enemy: Q&A with Mark Brown of Camden Chat

The Orioles can hit, but the bullpen has been an issue.

The Royals will face the Orioles this week in a best-of-three Wild Card series that is a re-match of the 2014 American League Championship Series that resulted in a Kansas City sweep. The two teams have rebuilt since then, with Baltimore developing what was widely considered the best farm system in baseball. Those young players carried Baltimore to the playoffs last year, and will look to go further this year.

How do these two teams stack up? I wanted to get the perspective from the other fan base and I was fortunate enough to talk to Mark Brown of Camden Chat to get his thoughts on the upcoming series.

How is this a different Orioles team than the one that was swept in the first round of the playoffs last year?

A whole lot of the same players are back from the team that won 101 games a year ago and swiftly exited the postseason, so in one sense, the big difference is just that it’s the same guys with more experience. That’s not entirely true, since there have been some changes to the roster, most notably the team bringing in Corbin Burnes as a one-year rental trade to be the ace of the staff. Although Burnes had a tough August that knocked him out of real contention to win a second Cy Young award, he had an excellent season overall and his presence is a big change: The Orioles have a guy with a multi-year track record of big success who they can pitch in game 1 of a postseason series. Another “addition,” so to speak, is that the already-good Gunnar Henderson took his game to a superstar level. I think Royals fans know a little about that kind of transformation.

What’s also different is that I think this year’s Orioles had to battle more adversity to get where they did in the regular season. They had very, very good injury luck a year ago, especially regarding starting pitchers; the only IL stint lasted about ten days. Compare that to 2024 where they lost Kyle Bradish and John Means to Tommy John surgery after each of these guys had their seasons delayed before they even began. Position players missed big chunks of time as well, with Jordan Westburg’s two months on the shelf seeming to be the thing that sent the team into an August and most-of-September swoon. Whether battling through these challenges will help them any in the postseason, who knows.

What is the concern level with the Orioles bullpen right now?

As a matter of temperament as a baseball fan, I am not wired to be confident in the bullpen, ever. Even considering that, it’s been a big come-down this year from the almost-automatic Félix Bautista - who got hurt in late August 2023 and needed TJ himself - to the guys they’ve used this year. Free agent signing Craig Kimbrel washed out in the second half and neither of the O’s bullpen deadline additions inspired a ton of confidence. In September, Orioles relievers had a 5.31 ERA, with struggles from another 2023 All-Star, Yennier Cano, among others. There will probably not be any defined roles in this bullpen for the postseason and the Orioles will just match up wherever they can and hope for the best.

Which 1-2 Orioles players have to step up for this team to have success?

The Orioles are going to need some good performances from their best hitters if they’re going to get anywhere. Henderson was the team’s top hitter in the regular season by a strong margin, closing out with a 155 wRC+. By bWAR, Henderson just turned in the greatest season by any Oriole not named Cal Ripken. So, they need him in the postseason hitting home runs just like he did in the regular season, with 37. The even more prolific home run hitter for the team was outfielder Anthony Santander, a pending free agent whose 44 homers marked his 2024 campaign as one of the greatest power seasons by a switch hitter that’s ever been recorded.

The pattern in recent postseasons is that the team that hits more home runs is the team that wins the game. These guys are the ones who’ve delivered most often for the Orioles in 2024 and they are the obvious ones to hope for a good series for the team to advance.

When the Royals and Orioles played in the ALCS in 2014, a lot was made about the managerial matchup between Buck Showalter and Ned Yost. How do you feel about Brandon Hyde leading this team and will his tactics be a factor in this series?

Brandon Hyde is unique among managers because he survived the rebuild years. The team brought him in to lose 100+ games for three years in a row (only the COVID year in 2020 cutting the season short stopped this from happening) and then after the Orioles turned the corner in 2022, the O’s showed faith in Hyde and kept him around. With the team winning 101 last year and 91 this year, I think that faith has been rewarded. There are some O’s fans who are much less patient with Hyde than I am about how he’s tried to manage things with some of the young players the team has tried to break in to MLB this season; the preseason #1 prospect Jackson Holliday has had some real growing pains.

Overall, I think he’s done well at pushing the right tactical buttons even while juggling a group of less-than-trustworthy relievers. His particular strength can be seen in how Orioles pinch hitters have a .857 OPS for the season. That’s the best mark of any American League team by a wide margin. He’s done well at matching up in late innings with the platoon options on his roster.

What is your prediction of the series?

A week ago, I would have predicted the Orioles were on the wrong end of a two-game sweep. The only thing that tempts me into having some hope is that there were a few players who returned from the IL in the season’s closing days - Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, and Ramón Urías - and they did seem to make a difference for an offense that sagged in September. Add them to Burnes and presumably Zach Eflin as a 1-2 punch and I will, with a wince, predict Orioles in three.

Many thanks to Mark Brown at Camden Chat, and follow them for all the latest Orioles news, analysis and takes.