State of Texas: Polls tighten in U.S. Senate race, sparking new surge of campaign cash

AUSTIN (Nexstar) — The race to watch in Texas: Democrat Colin Allred is trying to defeat incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

Cruz is favored, but new polling suggests Allred has a fighting chance.

A new Emerson College/The Hill poll, funded by Nexstar Media, was released Thursday. According to the poll, 49% of voters support incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, while 45% support Democratic challenger Colin Allred. Six percent are undecided in that race. The results fall within the poll's margin of error.

Both Cruz and Allred increased their share by a point since the previous ECP poll earlier this month.

The poll also asked how likely voters feel about each candidate. Cruz had a favorability score of 48%, compared with 45% for Allred. But there’s a significant difference when it comes to voters who have a negative view of each candidate. Slightly more than half of voters in the poll, 51% said they don’t like Cruz. Allred’s negative numbers came in at 41%.

But another number in the poll stands out. With a little over a month to go before the election, 15% of likely voters said they had not heard of Colin Allred. That number was just 2% for Ted Cruz.

"Cruz is a known commodity in Texas, obviously, whereas 15% say they aren't too familiar with Colin Allred. So there is some room there for Allred to, you know, grow his name ID, grow his favorability, and perhaps catch up to Cruz,” explained Matt Taglia, Emerson College Polling senior director.

“So I see little chance of, you know, one candidate or the other, breaking away here. I think if anything, it's only going to narrow further,” Taglia added.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of 950 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 24, 2024. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points. Poll respondents were contacted either by cell phone via MMS-to-web text or via an online panel.

Other polls are showing similar results, suggesting a tight race. And the buzz is attracting more campaign cash to Texas.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced it's making a new multi-million dollar investment into Texas. The DSCC is the arm of the party focused on electing Democrats to the Senate. The group is adding to the $79 million in ad reservations that they already had so far.

It has been 30 years since a Democrat won a statewide election in Texas, and Cruz is still favored to win. But the incumbent Republican is also campaigning hard, and trying to raise money.  In media appearances aimed at Republican audiences, Cruz said his campaign was in trouble and asked for help.

“We’re being outspent badly, which is why the polls are showing this is a one or a two or three point race,” Cruz told Fox News radio host Guy Benson.

“This race in Texas is a real race. It is a serious fight,” Cruz added.

The surge of campaign cash focused on the Texas race reflects the importance of how the outcome could influence the balance of power on Capitol Hill.

An Allred victory in the Lone Star State would help Democrats who are in danger of losing control of the upper chamber. Their majority right now is as close as it gets — 51 to 49.

Of the 34 Senate seats in play in November, 23 of them are held by Democrats or Independents who caucus with Democrats. That means Republicans have fewer seats they need to defend and only need to flip two seats to take control of the chamber.

Further complicating things for Democrats, Independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring, and many political experts believe it's all but certain his seat will turn red come November. That by itself would make the Senate 50-50.

Experts point out there are vulnerable Democrats in a handful of states including Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Maryland.

It's something to keep in mind for Texans who believe their votes don't carry much weight when it comes to national politics, because this time, they just might.

At least, when it comes to the Senate.

Mom who lost son "not backing down" in fight for fentanyl education

Fentanyl poisonings continue to kill thousands of people across Texas. But the latest statistics from the Centers for Disease Control show an encouraging sign. The numbers show a slight decrease in deaths in Texas, mirroring a nationwide decline that started showing up earlier this year.

Part of the credit for the decline can be attributed to increased awareness of the dangers of the drug, DEA officials say.

Last year, Texas took a new step towards fentanyl awareness when Governor Greg Abbott signed a bill known as Tucker’s Law that requires school districts to educate students in grades 6-12 about the drug. The bill is named after Tucker Roe, a 19 year old who died from fentanyl poisoning. 

His mom, Stefanie Roe, helped push for the legislation. She founded the nonprofit Texas Against Fentanyl after Tucker's death. Tucker was Stefanie’s firstborn and only son.

"He was born with just an adventurous little spirit, a lover of people, and just a real light in our family and in others," said Roe.

After she lost her son in 2021, Stefanie founded Texas Against Fentanyl, a 501C3 founded to increase awareness, support, and legislation surrounding the drug. 

“In 2021 when I lost Tucker, I had no knowledge of illicit fentanyl. I had never heard of press pills. I did not know that teens were selling to teens, and seven out of 10 pills were lethal. And as a mom, that just struck me that I didn't have the information to safeguard my son and give him knowledge of that poison,” said Roe. 

Tucker’s Law took effect last year. Since then, Roe says schools have reached out to Texas Against Fentanyl to organize assemblies and bring in the Tucker Project to their school programming. Roe believes that knowledge about the drug is essential to save lives. 

“If a student understands that, this is what it looks like. You can't see it, you can't taste it, you can't smell it. It can be added to these things. This is the impact it has on the body. It's not a just say no campaign. It's to get educated so you can make better decisions,” said Roe.

Roe said there has been some confusion over how to teach the topic calling it an “unfunded mandate” for schools. She says Texas Against Fentanyl has been developing a curriculum alongside the Texas Education Agency to help schools.

With the next legislative session looming in January, Roe says there are changes to be made. She says she plans to push lawmakers to make improvements to Tucker’s Law along with implementing new legislation to improve testing at hospitals to increase accurate reporting on fentanyl deaths.

Roe says her group is also working to decriminalize fentanyl test strips. The test strips allow people to detect whether fentanyl is in the drugs they use. Texas is one of a few states where the strips are illegal, considered to be drug paraphernalia. Last session, a bill to decriminalize test strips passed the Texas House but failed to advance in the Senate.

Roe says her group is relentless and will pull every stop to get legislation passed to help save lives. 

“We're mad moms who have lost our children to something that we did not have education on, and we're not backing down,” she said.

'Reached our limit,' Lawmakers hear warnings about looming water crisis

Texas lawmakers met Tuesday to discuss a variety of water-related issues in Texas, including the implementation of the Texas Water Fund. The fund was approved by voters last November and dedicates $1 billion for water infrastructure.

Also on the House Natural Resources Committee’s Tuesday agenda was looking into opportunities to expand the reuse of water, reviewing boil water notices in Texas and finding solutions to keep water accessible and examining groundwater infrastructure. The committee also heard public comments related to these issues.

The state’s population is expected to increase by 73% by 2070, compared to the population in 2020, according to the 2022 Texas State Water Plan. Water demand is also expected to grow in that time by 9%. However, water supplies are projected to decrease by 18%.

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said Texas loses a farm a week because farmers don’t have enough water for their crops. He said infrastructure upgrades are one solution to help save water.

“Texas is out of water,” Miller told Nexstar on Tuesday. “We can’t grow, we can’t expand, we can’t have economic opportunity and jobs without water. We’ve reached our limit, there is no more. We’ve got to do some things different.”

According to a 2022 study from the National Wildlife Federation, Texas loses at least 572,000 acre-feet of water every year. That’s more than Austin, Fort Worth, El Paso, Laredo and Lubbock’s combined 2020 water demand.

“It’s the silent issue, with the least urgency, with the biggest impact,” State Sen. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock, previously told Nexstar. “We’ve been, for far too long, treating water like a commodity that has no meaning. And it’s truly not. It’s not a commodity. It’s a necessity.”

Perry authored Senate Bill 28, a bill related to the Texas Water Development Board financial assistance.

“Water is the only problem that we face as a state that can literally be fixed with more money,” Perry said. “It’s just a commitment to a vision to provide water and a commitment of resources to get there. So that’s been my frustration — it’s not one of those problems that we can’t solve. The lack of urgency to deal with it is frustrating.”

Jeremy Mazur, director of infrastructure and natural resources policy at Texas 2036, testified at Tuesday’s hearing. He said the $1 billion investment is not enough.

“The $1 billion that lawmakers and state voters approved last session was a great first step,” Mazur said in an interview Friday. “They took steps to expand our state's financial strategy for addressing our water infrastructure challenges.”

The state needs to invest $154 billion in the water supply in the coming decades, according to Mazur and Texas 2036. By 2070, the gap between funding the necessary investment will be over $110 billion.

“We can close this gap, and we think the right solution is to follow the financial model that we already use for state parks and highways, which is to have a dedicated, focused revenue stream towards our Texas Water funds that can be used to finance and build the water and structure and supplies that we need,” Mazur said.

The state needs to expand its water supply portfolio and has an issue with old water systems. Mazur said these are the two biggest water issues the state is facing.

“We have this growing problem associated with aging, deteriorating drinking water and wastewater systems that are fast becoming liabilities to the communities that they serve,” Mazur said.

Congress passes bill to avoid government shutdown, for now

Congress passed a short-term funding bill to keep money flowing to government agencies through the election and avoid a government shutdown. But that temporary fix ends on December 20, setting the stage for an end-of-year spending battle.

The bill, known as a continuing resolution, or CR keeps most federal funding at its current levels. It also adds more money for the Secret Service and the upcoming presidential transition.

Most lawmakers agree the temporary fix is not ideal.

"None of us like them," said House Speaker Mike Johnson of continuing resolutions. "It allows Congress to continue serving the American people through the election."

Rep. Tom Cole, R-Oklahoma, pointed out some good did come out of the compromise.

"Nobody got everything they wanted, but we all thought: okay, more money for the Secret Service, making sure there's enough money for the transition. But let's leave everything else pretty much alone," Cole said.

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, expressed his dissatisfaction with the timing of the CR. He wanted the funding to continue until after next year's inauguration.

"I think it's a mistake to have this expire before Christmas," Roy told reporters before the final vote. "It's for the appropriators, for the uniparty, swamp, whatever pejorative you want to use. That's where they want it."

The fight over what to cut and where to spend will continue, as lawmakers now have more time to figure out a long-term budget. The temporary deal gives many of them time to hit the campaign trail, almost one month before election day.