Fox News Poll: Harris, Trump in close race in North Carolina
Vice President Harris has a 2 percentage-point edge over former President Trump in the latest Fox News survey of North Carolina registered voters (50% Harris, 48% Trump). Last month, Trump was ahead by 1 point (50% to 49%), for a 3-point shift in the presidential race.
Among likely voters, the race flips with Trump on top by just a single point, 50% to 49%.
When third-party candidates are included, Harris is up 1 point among registered voters (3% support third party), while Trump is up 2 points among likely voters (3% to others).
The results among both registered and likely voters are within the margin of error.
Harris’s strongest support comes from Black voters, urban voters, and college-educated women, while for Trump it is Whites without a college degree (particularly men without degrees), rural voters, and White evangelicals.
Most Democrats (98%) and Republicans (96%) back their party’s candidate, while the small group of independents favors Harris by 7 points.
Slightly more Harris supporters (92%) than Trump supporters (89%) are certain of their choice.
Harris is viewed more positively than Trump among Tar Heel voters — 50% have a favorable view of her vs. 49% unfavorable for a +1 net positive rating. Trump’s rating is negative by 7 points (46% favorable, 53% unfavorable).
Just 30% say the economy is in either excellent (7%) or good (23%) condition, while another 70% say either fair (30%) or poor (40%). This negativity is a far cry from November 2019 (late into Trump’s term as president) when 54% were positive and 44% negative.
By 7 points, voters are more likely to think Trump can better handle the economy and about the same number give him the edge on making the country safe (+6). He does best on immigration and border security, where he leads Harris by 15 points, down from a 19-point lead in August.
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Harris does best on the issue of abortion, where she is preferred by 16 points. Voters also give her the edge on helping the middle class (+7), protecting democracy (+6), and fighting for people like you (+5).
The candidates tie on who can bring needed change.
"The race here will be close, but Trump still holds the edge on the issues that matter most to North Carolina voters," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson. "So long as they think Trump is more likely to make the country more prosperous and safer, he’s the odds-on favorite."
At least 8 in 10 Black voters think Harris is better equipped to handle these issues and actions, except when it comes to immigration, where Trump eats into Harris’ lead with 25% saying he would better handle immigration vs. 73% for Harris.
The survey also finds the gap in the gubernatorial race in North Carolina has widened. Democrat Josh Stein (56%) has a 16-point lead over Republican Mark Robinson (40%), a 5-point increase since last month (54% Stein, 43% Robinson).
The survey was conducted after news of alleged inflammatory comments Robinson made on a porn website.
"It is unlikely the toxic nature of the Republican gubernatorial candidate will cause Trump voters to switch to Harris, but it could affect turnout," says Anderson. "It complicates things for the Trump campaign to have to actively avoid the GOP candidate, and there could be some Trump-leaning independents who are so turned off by Robinson they decide it’s not worth voting."
Trump endorsed Robinson in March but has yet to comment on whether he’ll pull his support.
Some 14% of Stein supporters split their ticket and back Trump in the presidential race, while just 4% of Robinson supporters back Harris.
A few more things…
-- By 17 points, those who say they will vote early in North Carolina back Harris. Among the smaller group of Election Day voters, Trump leads by 20 points.
--The views of the vice-presidential candidates play out the same as the presidential, with Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz receiving a net positive rating of 5 (46% favorable vs. 41% unfavorable) and Ohio Republican Sen. JD Vance net negative by 6 (41-47%).
--Views of President Joe Biden are net negative by 15 points (42% favorable, 57% unfavorable).
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Conducted September 20-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 991 North Carolina registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (138) and cellphones (615) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (238). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points and for the subsample of 787 likely voters it is ±3.5 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance, and marital status.