Oscar Experts Typing: Mikey Madison vs. Karla Sofía Gascón vs. the field in Best Actress

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we tackle Best Actress, which has two favorites and lots of viable contenders for the other three spots.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday and we’re back together to type about what is annually our favorite category: the Best Actress race. In terms of quantity, this year feels no different than previous years, with several performers seemingly vying for one of the five Oscar slots. But as you’ve said when we’ve spoken about this IRL, while there are many contenders, the race maybe doesn’t feel broadly competitive as years past — and once critics groups and precursor awards start being doled out, maybe Best Actress locks into a set five or six contenders very quickly. But that’s a debate for future Joyce and Chris. For today, hope springs eternal for so many deserving actresses. I’m very bullish about two of my five picks so far: It’s legitimately hard for me to imagine the Oscar Best Actress lineup without “Anora” star Mikey Madison and “Emilia Perez” breakout Karla Sofía Gascón. I’ve also got Nicole Kidman represented in my predictions, a long shot if you believe the odds. But the “Babygirl” star won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at the Venice Film Festival and her approval ratings within the industry have maybe never been higher. Playing a “risky” part in an adult thriller seems like potential catnip for the actors’ branch, even if she winds up being a lone nominee (I still think “Babygirl” can factor elsewhere, including screenplay and supporting actor). I also came around to where you’ve been for months: Amy Adams, Oscar nominee for “Nightbitch.” Everyone jumped ship after the film’s trailer, but I bought the dip — particularly after the TIFF premiere, where the reviews were strong and Adams went seemingly from having frontrunner fatigue to enjoying the bounce of an underdog (no pun in intended). I still think she’s got a strong chance this year. For my final slot, well, until this morning, I had Marianne Jean-Baptiste for “Hard Truths.” But while her forthcoming BAFTA nomination feels all but certain, I am not entirely sold on the film being embraced by the Academy. So instead I’m back on Saoirse Ronan for “The Outrun.” Much like I can’t imagine Best Actress without Madison and Gascón, it’s tough for me to envision the Best Actress lineup without Sony Pictures Classics. The indie studio has three worthy contenders in Ronan, Tilda Swinton for “The Room Next Door,” and Fernanda Torres for “I’m Still Here” (four contenders if you want to count Julianne Moore, also for “The Room Next Door”). I can make the case of the others, but the narrative of this being “Ronan’s year” feels too strong to ignore. She’s fantastic in “The Outrun,” this year’s winner of the “To Leslie” award for best “small film with a giant heart.” I think she’s got the performance and the reputation to pull more No. 1 votes than Jean-Baptiste or Adams. So she’s back in for me (I had her in this summer but dropped her after the fall festivals). So, that’s my five — with Jean-Baptiste, Angelina Jolie, and Demi Moore on the outside. Jolie is in third in the odds and the Oscar winner has Pablo Larraín’s history on her side: His last two biopics about famed 20th century women landed the lead actresses Oscar nominations. It seems likely she’ll make it, right? Should I just move her into my picks like a normal person or do you think I’m right to suspect she might miss?

joyceeng: No shade, but the year doesn’t feel so stacked that Jolie is in grave danger of missing. She obviously could, but she reminds me of the type of contenders on whom everyone starts to waver because the reception and strength of their films are less than ideal, but they make it in because their performances tick traditional boxes and they have good personal ink. We’ve seen that the past two years with her fellow Netflix ladies Annette Bening, Carey Mulligan, and Ana de Armas. Jolie also might not even be a lone nominee, a fate that befell Larraín predecessor Kristen Stewart. I’ve had Edward Lachman earmarked in cinematography (black and white, baby!) to follow his “El Conde” bid and the film is definitely in play for costume design. A month ago, I had Ronan in first and now she’s not in my top five. I only dropped her to make way for Kidman and I also don’t want to drop Adams until I’ve seen “Nightbitch,” so Ronan drew the short straw. I’ll probably have her back in at some point — and likely sooner than later — but her narrative to me is entirely Film Twitter-driven at this point. Don’t get me wrong — I would love to see her win an Oscar and would’ve given it to her for “Brooklyn,” but there’s no indication yet that the industry feels the same way. She’s excellent in “The Outrun” — the performance is catnip for actors and very much “To Leslie” coded — and this will be a test case for her since her previous four nominations were for Best Picture nominees. She’s more likely to be “The Outrun’s” sole nomination than not, which wouldn’t cripple her nomination chances but might hurt her for the win — if we’re going along with this “Ronan’s year” narrative — unless she sweeps like Julianne Moore did. Now, I have no effing clue who’s winning, so she could in theory steamroll, but I’m not going there yet. If she and Swinton both make it in, it will be a rematch 17 years in the making after the latter prevailed over Ronan in Best Supporting Actress for “Michael Clayton.” Can Swinton finally get her sophomore nom? Imagine telling someone back then that only one of them would accrue multiple nominations over the next two decades and it would be the then-13-year-old.

SEE Experts slugfest: Saoirse Ronan, ‘Challengers’ trio, and more Oscar category confirmations

Christopher Rosen: I waver on whether we’re predisposed to discount the Ronan narrative because it’s so driven by Film Twitter (and we are used to discounting that general vibe), or whether there actually is a groundswell of support for her (something the four previous nominations seemingly point toward). Swinton feels very much in play — and her move to lead actress felt like it came from a position of confidence in the performance. I still haven’t seen “The Room Next Door” and I don’t really know what to make of it: generally favorable reviews (but not overwhelming reviews), the Golden Lion win, and that 17-minute standing ovation (what). It seems obvious “The Room Next Door” will pop at the New York Film Festival, so I wonder if that will get Swinton a renewed bounce. I mentioned Moore and, having finally watched “The Substance,” she’s as good as advertised but also not in the movie as much as I expected. (Margaret Qualley is awesome as well.) “The Substance” is being sold as the grossest body horror movie ever and while it’s definitely gross gross, I also found it easier to digest then expected. I don’t actually think it’ll be a no-go for voters, but I also don’t know that Moore will make it in despite her expected Golden Globe Awards nomination. Speaking of the Globes, Cynthia Erivo feels like a lock there for “Wicked” and I still think that movie could wind up among the Best Picture nominees. She’s a past Best Actress nominee and, well, do you think it’s possible she could defy gravity and the early season contenders to make a run at the Oscars next year?

joyceeng: You mean Cynthia Erivo, another one of Ronan’s past Oscar rivals? I don’t think past nominations are necessarily a sign of a groundswell of support. Adams has received more nominations in a shorter timeframe and hasn’t won (and if she also makes it in, she would lay claim to the “overdue” narrative). And we don’t need to bring up Glenn Close. The support needs to show itself in the current race and it hasn’t yet, but the night is young. You’re the one who had Erivo once upon a time, so I feel like you ought to make the case for her. I’m not gonna slot in either “Wicked” woman yet, but if the film is well received and a hit, why not? I know we’re concerned about normies not being aware it’s a two-part film, but I would think most of the industry knows that, though I’m probably given them too much credit. The Globes comedy/musical actress race could be barnburner though. Who will emerge victorious between Madison and Gascón? The past two years, the Best Actress top two were in different Globe genres and each won, setting up tantalizing face-offs down the line, but the current top two are in the same category this time.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: The state of the weirdest Best Picture race in years

Christopher Rosen: So what you’re saying is that like Best Picture, the Best Actress race is somewhat unformed and without an easily identifiable frontrunner? So let’s go back to the top before we exit the chat for this week. Madison and Gascón are, respectively, first and second in the odds and either feels like a potential winner. But while their nominations seem assured, I’m not entirely convinced either will win despite being deserving of the Oscar. If you had to pick a winner now, where would you go: Madison, Gascón, or the field?

joyceeng: I can see both winning under certain conditions, but I would probably take the field right now. To close the loop on Jolie, this could be another weird race like the one three years ago. No one was as heavily predicted to win at this stage like KStew was, obviously, but that race took a lot of twists and turns before Jessica Chastain, who seemed down and out at one point with “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” struck gold. I guess what I’m saying is: Nicole Kidman is coming for her seventh Golden Globe.