PAGASA not ruling out Julian landfall, super typhoon status

MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau is now seeing potential landfall and possible super typhoon status for Tropical Depression Julian, which remained over the Philippine Sea on Friday evening, September 27.

In a briefing past 11 pm on Friday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Julian was located 400 kilometers east southeast of Basco, Batanes, or 435 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan.

The tropical depression is moving south southwest at the same speed of 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

So far, it continues to have maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

But PAGASA said Julian may strengthen into a tropical storm on Saturday morning, September 28, then into a severe tropical storm and subsequently a typhoon by Sunday, September 29.

“Rapid intensification is increasingly likely and the possibility of [Julian] reaching super typhoon category is not ruled out,” added the weather bureau.

Julian will keep following “a looping path over the waters east of Batanes and Cagayan in the next five days,” but its track appears to be shifting westward, which would bring it closer to extreme Northern Luzon.

Because of this westward shift, Julian might make landfall in Batanes by Monday afternoon or evening, September 30, as a typhoon.

Whether Julian makes landfall or not, it will be dumping rain in Northern Luzon, with floods and landslides possible. Below is PAGASA’s rainfall forecast as of 11 pm on Friday.

Friday evening, September 27, to Saturday evening, September 28

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Batanes, Cagayan

Saturday evening, September 28, to Sunday evening, September 29

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, Batanes, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur

Sunday evening, September 29, to Monday evening, September 30

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Batanes, Apayao, Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region

Other areas in the country, which are not affected by the tropical depression, may only have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Saturday.

In preparation for strong winds, more areas were placed under Signal No. 1 at 11 pm on Friday:

• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• northeastern part of Isabela (San Pablo, Divilacan, Maconacon, Palanan, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano)
• eastern part of Apayao (Luna, Pudtol, Santa Marcela, Flora)

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Julian could be Signal No. 3 or 4.

The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards [Julian’s circulation] may also bring strong to gale-force gusts” to these areas:

Saturday, September 28

• Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

Sunday, September 29

• Aurora, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Bicol, Aklan, northern part of Antique

Monday, September 30

• Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Bicol

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For coastal waters in the next 24 hours, PAGASA warned of rough seas in the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands as well as the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 3.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.

Moderate seas are also seen in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024, and also the sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.

PAGASA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Jebi, located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Jebi was last spotted 2,460 kilometers east of Northern Luzon on Friday evening, moving north northeast at 10 km/h.

The tropical storm slightly intensified, with its maximum sustained winds increasing from 65 km/h to 75 km/h. Its gustiness is still up to 80 km/h.

PAGASA previously said Jebi is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com