Why Is The U.S. So Keen To Get Turkey Back Into The F-35 Program?
Until now, discussions surrounding Turkey’s eligibility to acquire the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter came to an abrupt end in 2019 after Ankara insisted on acquiring a Russian-made air defense system. Washington implored the Turkish government not to push ahead with the purchase of the S-400 system from Moscow, as purchasing a weapon system from an adversary would undermine NATO security and interoperability. The purchase and final delivery of the missiles resulted in Ankara being kicked out of the F-35 program and the imposition of U.S. sanctions, making it the first time one NATO ally sanctioned another.
Turkey now appears to want to backtrack from this fateful decision and has initiated a dialogue with Washington to find a way back into the F-35 program, and Washington is listening. This is a mistake, as Turkey’s proposed solution to address the S-400 is an insufficient remedy to qualify for receiving a strategic platform that ensures NATO’s competitive edge against adversaries. Perhaps more importantly, Ankara is not a true believer in the values that define NATO. It is visibly anti-Western in demeanor and undermines the alliance’s, as well as its members’ core security interests. It is an ally on paper only and acts consistently like an adversary. Addressing the S-400 issue is too small a step by Ankara, and it does not merit a return to the F-35 program.
According to several sources, Ankara seems to think it has found a magic formula to acquire the F-35 and satisfy Washington at the same time. In late August, Turkish officials pitched their American counterparts with a plan that would ensure the permanent warehousing of Turkey’s S-400 system, which the United States could continuously verify. In essence, Turkey was volunteering never to activate its Russian missiles, subjecting this pledge to U.S. verification, thus nullifying a perceived threat by the U.S. and NATO.
A high-level official at the American Embassy in Ankara did not deny that an offer had been brought by Turkey to resolve the S-400 issue and asserted that “The ball is now in Turkey’s court.” However, this was quickly refuted by unnamed officials in Ankara who denied any willingness to sell or completely shut down the S-400 system. Defense Ministry sources told Anadolu Agency, “Our country’s need for air defense systems persists. In this context, the S-400 air defense system remains in the inventory of the Turkish Armed Forces.”
In January, Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland left the door open for the resumption of the F-35 family as long as Ankara satisfactorily resolved the S-400 issue. The exact criteria for Turkey’s re-entry into the F-35 program remained vague, but Washington has been signaling for months that they want to see the complete removal of the S-400s from the country. Ankara’s new suggestion cannot be the way forward. Turkey has provided no evidence that it is a sincere believer in NATO’s mission.
In early September 2024, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his decision to apply to join BRICS+. At NATO’s Washington summit in July, he reiterated his desire for Turkey to become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). To be clear, both of these organizations are not only the antitheses of Western economic and security institutions of which Turkey is a member but also entities dedicated to undermining the rules-based order. Turkey’s desire to join them should not fall on deaf ears. It should not be simply ignored or dismissed by NATO capitals. Moreover, it is worth remembering that Turkey actively delayed NATO enlargement, denying Sweden and Finland’s entry into the alliance for eighteen months, which directly benefited Moscow. And staggeringly, Turkey is the only NATO member state that embraces and provides material support to Hamas.
If one wants to know the level of anti-Americanism and anti-Westernism that exists in Erdogan’s Turkey today, a recent event provides a good idea. In August, U.S. Marines attached to the sixth fleet, who were on shore leave in Turkey’s Izmir province, were assaulted by a Turkish mob who demanded they leave Turkey. Since the beginning of Israel’s war on Hamas, Erdogan has spared no effort to undermine and damage the security interests of a key U.S. ally. In protest of American support for its Israeli ally, the Turkish government did little to prevent mobs laying siege to key NATO military installations in Turkey, including Kurecik and Incirlik bases.
Why is Turkey so determined to acquire the F-35? Since being removed from the program in 2019, Ankara has showcased to world audiences the development of its domestically produced fifth-generation fighter, KAAN, bringing Turkey into a small club of nations that can produce fifth-generation fighters. However, Turkey doesn’t expect to have these domestically-produced fighters ready before 2030, as the KAAN still needs to be fitted with a domestically-produced engine.
Greece’s acquisition of F-35s will leave Ankara out in the cold, with a virtually obsolete air force composed mainly of aging F-16s, F4s, and F5s. Although KAAN was showcased to the world, there is also no guarantee that its final addition to the Turkish Air Force will actually happen. In the final analysis, Turkey is desperate to modernize its air defense and offense capabilities. Procuring F-35s is the best option, and Washington is listening.
The Biden administration, while keeping Erdogan at arm’s length for the majority of its time in office, is working behind the scenes to explore any and all opportunities to see if it can rebuild a substantive relationship with Ankara. It is based on an obsession and mistaken belief that Turkey can correct its foreign policy misadventures and, under the right circumstances, gravitate back to being a stalwart member of the European and transatlantic security community.
Prior to leaving his post, Ambassador Jeff Flake spearheaded the initiative to improve Turkish-American ties. This mostly amounted to heaping praise on Erdogan and reinforcing tired tropes that Turkey was a vital ally of the U.S. In a recent interview with Politico, Flake praised Ankara’s role in a recent prisoner exchange involving seven countries, describing Turkey as an “indispensable ally.”
Ankara has and is taking visible steps to decouple itself from upholding the values and security priorities of the NATO alliance, of which it has been a member since 1952. Knowing that there is no mechanism to expel a member, one should not expect Turkey to follow up its estrangement from the alliance by actually leaving it. Instead, it will choose to remain inside while integrating itself within entities like BRICS and SCO, weakening Western security and resolve against China and Russia.
So why, then, is the Biden administration willing to continue exploring opportunities to arm an emerging adversary with a capability that could threaten the remaining members of NATO?
Sinan Ciddi is a nonresident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on X: @SinanCiddi.
Sophia Epley is an intern at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a student at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.
Image: Flight Video and Photo / Shutterstock.com.