Nationals series preview: Running out of time
The Nats love to run, can the Royals keep up?
After years of playoff heartbreak, the Nationals finally won the first championship in club history in 2019 with a team full of stars like Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg. But within a few years, all of those players were gone, and the team has not had a winning record since. The Nationals play in the eighth-largest TV market in the U.S., yet have acted more like a small market team in recent years, rebuilding with young players.
Kansas City Royals (82-74) vs. Washington Nationals (69-87) at Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Royals: 4.61 runs scored/game (12th in MLB), 4.06 runs allowed/game (8th)
Nationals: 4.09 runs scored/game (24th), 4.76 runs allowed/game (25th)
The club bottomed out with 107 losses in 2022, but improved to 71-91 last year and can improve this year if they can at least split their remaining six games. But they still have the sixth-worst record in baseball and barring a 5-1 ending this week, will not have a winning month this entire season. They dropped six of seven on their most recent road trip, and their only series win this month was over the Marlins.
Only the White Sox have hit fewer home runs than the Nationals. They have the seventh-lowest walk rate, but the sixth-lowest strikeout rate. The offense has been scuffling lately, averaging just 2.6 runs-per-game in their last 13 games.
The lineup is without All-Star C.J. Abrams, who was sent to minors the rest of the year after being out at a casino all night before a day game. They traded away Lane Thomas and Jesse Winker mid-season, which made room for two of the top hitting prospects in baseball - Dylan Crews and James Wood. Luis García is a .332/.376/.550 hitter at home this year and overall has the 11th-lowest walk rate among qualified hitters. Joey Gallo is batting just .162/.279/.368 in 25 games since returning from a hamstring injury.
The Nationals have stolen more bases than any team in baseball, although they also lead the league in caught stealing by a significant margin and have been picked off more than any team. Centerfielder Jacob Young leads all of baseball in Outs Above Average, but otherwise the Nationals have been poor defensively. Keibert Ruiz has thrown out just 19 percent of would-be base-stealers, allowing the third-most stolen bases in baseball.
Mitchell Parker has had a solid rookie season, and is sixth among all rookie pitchers in fWAR. Hey may be hitting a bit of a wall, allowing 27 runs in 33 1⁄3 innings in his last seven starts, failing to get out of the fourth inning in three of those games. he has been significantly better at home with a 2.81 ERA at Nationals Park compared to 6.61 on the road, and just 13 walks in 14 starts at home. He throws a 92.5 mph four-seamer half the time mixing in a curve, splitter, and slider.
The Royals have not yet announced a starter for Wednesday, although it is likely to be some combination of Alec Marsh and Michael Lorenzen. DJ Herz was acquired from the Cubs last summer in a deal for third baseman Jeimer Candelario. The 23-year-old rookie has a 3.78 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break, although he gave up seven runs in less than four innings in his last outing against the Mets. He has virtually no platoon split and opponents are hitting just .180/.296/.295 against him the first time through the lineup.
Since the start of 2021, Patrick Corbin has a 5.70 ERA, second-worst among all pitchers. This year, he has the fifth-worst strikeout-to-walk ratio among qualified starters. He leads the National League in hits allowed (202) and is tenth in home runs (24) given up. Righties are batting .317/.359/.524 against him, although he fares much better against lefties. Cobin relies heavily on his sinker, which opponents are hitting .337 against, mixing in a slider, cutter, four-seamer, and change up. He yields a groundball rate of 47.4 percent, tenth-highest among qualified starters.
The Nationals bullpen has a 4.18 ERA with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate but the sixth-lowest walk rate. Closer Kyle Finnegan has the third-most saves in baseball with 38, and has blown five saves. Jose A. Ferrrer has given up just two runs in 21 innings (0.86 ERA) in his last 20 games. Former Royals pitcher Jacob Barnes has given up 11 runs (10 earned) in 5 2⁄3 innings this month with opponents batting .419 with three home runs. Former Royals farmhand Robert Garcia is tied for the sixth-most appearances in the National League.
The Nationals are not a good team, but they are feisty enough and the Royals are playing poorly enough that this series is not a given. The Royals have the edge in every pitching matchup, but the offense will need to wake up and score some runs. The door is open for the Royals, but they have to walk in. No one expected this before the season, but this is possibly the most important series for this organization since they won a title in 2015.