Winter/October weather outlooks updated
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- The Climate Prediction Center released new monthly and seasonal outlooks on Thursday revealing an expectation that drought makes a return to more of Central Texas.
Drought has significantly improved across Central Texas with only southern Gillespie County in "moderate drought" and drought-free conditions everywhere else in the 15 counties that KXAN serves. Still, abnormal dryness has been spreading in the latest drought report as drier weather continues.
The seasonal drought outlook released on Sept. 19 suggests that drought will start returning to parts of Central Texas over the next few months.
The return of drought to the area is likely already developing as dry weather has impacted most of Central Texas near and east of I-35 for the majority of September.
October outlook
A warmer and drier October is in the cards according to the latest monthly forecast from the Climate Prediction Center.
The odds of a warmer-than-normal October are even higher to our west, but our outlook still leans warmer than is typical for the month ahead.
Our rainfall expectations aren't super clear cut, but the odds lean drier than normal with the exception of areas southeast of Austin where near-normal rainfall is expected.
What’s normal in October?
Normally, October is a wet month falling right in the middle of our second “wet season” which runs from September through November.
- Average high Oct. 1: 87º
- Average high Oct. 31: 77º
- Average low Oct. 1: 66º
- Average low Oct. 31: 56º
- 6th warmest month of the year
- Average rainfall: 3.91″ (second-wettest month of the year)
- Average number of triple-digit days: None
Winter forecast update
While the "official" winter forecast won't be released until November, the updated outlook for December-February continues to lean heavily on the expected La Niña, despite a weaker La Niña anticipated.
La Niña usually brings warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal conditions to Central Texas and the existing winter forecast points to exactly that.
A drier winter can have a knock-on effect into the following seasons. If drought becomes exacerbated, it can make spring and summer hotter if there's less water in the ground.