The Horn Of Africa: The Years Ahead – OpEd
This is not intended to be like a seers saying but an attempt should always be made to predict what the future holds for the region. It is a conflicted region where many hands are involved, mostly foreign but also with local supports or agents. It is a region where man-made poverty and leaders interested more in their personal development and aggrandisement than their nations and peoples interests prevail. It is a region, where there are old and young leaderships, who have diametrically opposed views on the fate of the region. It is a region where leaders think they know best and do not use the counsel of the experienced and knowledgeable people of their countries. It is, indeed, a rich region which is poor out of its own making and of the making of others combined to impoverish it.
Many of the reports that would come from the region would continue to be about its continuing conflicts for a while. The conflicts are what feed and enable international NGOs to thrive upon the broken backs of the people of the region. The NGOs remain an employment avenue for many unemployed people of developed countries, who provide the meagre grants and aid that trickles to the region. They recover the grants and aid through the NGOs. We do not see any change in the infrastructure of the NGOs or for that that matter their objectives.
The Somalia scenario will improve, as the country moves on to exploit, at last, its vast hydrocarbon resources and this will not please the West Asian countries which will fight back to cause more trouble for Somalia than it already has, and the region. The four-decade civil war will taper off though, and the country will breathe, at last, a breath of life. This may not be the case for Ethiopia which has embarked on the path to ethnic civil strives, where the multiple nationalities of the country will each be seeking to manage its own affairs the way it wants. This will, especially, be the case for the larger groups of Tigray, the Amhara State, the Oromia State and the Somali State. Ethnic mobilisation in Ethiopia is currently on a full swing and we may be looking at an Ex-Yugoslavia of Africa.
The old leaderships of Djibouti and Eritrea will continue for some time, but they will definitely be replaced by a younger generation hungry for power. No one knows how this will transpire. Will they follow the bad examples of Somalia and Ethiopia, or will they adopt more egalitarian and equitable infrastructures, where the rule of law and fairness prevail? It is not clear! Nothing in the Horn of Africa States region can be taken for granted.
The Sudan civil war will continue as foreign hands fight over its gold and other mineral resources, which will prevent any decent reconciliation between the two main local contenders for power – the Military and the RSF. The Military government may eventually prevail as it represents the legitimate authority of the country while foreigners prop up the RSF. The difficulties of Sudan will, however, continue for some years to come
Because of the growing ethnic conflicts of Ethiopia, the region will once again be overwhelmed by refugees running for their lives from Ethiopia. Many will arrive in the neighboring countries and particularly Somalia and Sudan, and many will move on to other parts of the world.
Somalia will be helping Ethiopia or what is left of it, in due course. The Eastern parts of the country is Somali anyway and the Somali assistance will prevail in the traditional Somali way. It is a large family which looks after itself, at whatever cost. It may carry the burdens of a splintering Ethiopia. The achievements of Ethiopia over the past several decades are currently under great threat and may be clawed back.
The difficult scenario described above is avoidable through a change in the outlook of the leaders of the region and in particular the emerging king of Finfinnee (Addis Ababa). Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, should not be putting pressures on the region for seemingly unachievable goals such as an access to a sea and the like. The Prime Minister instead of fanning warfare in the region should be working for peace for which he was awarded the highest global medal in this respect, the Alfred Nobel Peace Prize. He should, at least, respect this award and honor it.
The Horn of Africa as noted in several other writings is not only rich in resources but is strategically located and can be a useful member in the global economic infrastructure. The two main God Given assets of the region are its coastal waters which overlook one of the main shipping waterways of the world and the Blue Nile River which starts in the region. Instead of making its populations suffer through wars and poverty, the leaders of the region should calm it down and work on providing basic services even without stretching their hands to others for help. Tightening one’s belt is sometimes the best way to free oneself from the pressures of others.
The general reliance on ‘destiny’ as seems to be the case on the part of some of the leaders is wrong. Destiny is changeable and can be changed but they should have the will to change the destiny of their countries and people for the better, not at the expense of others, though and especially not at the expense of the neighbors. The leaders of the region should be taking appropriate political remaking of themselves to view themselves as the instruments of a better change for the region, where the rule of law prevails, and which is equitable and fair. Ethnicity is the worst enemy of the region, and they should remove this from the platform of governance.
An integrated economic scenario for the region will be the best they could do for the region, and this could be achieved with ease. Those who have wronged others should first apologize to those they wronged and show sincerity in their dealings with others. In this particular region Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed should publicly apologize to Somalia and to all the coastal countries of the region, and he will be received with open arms. He has no clue how he will be respected should he have such a courage and leadership trait – the ability to realize one’s mistakes and correcting them as is appropriate.
The political failure of the leadership of the region will be cured instantly or at least to a great extent and this will allow them to address the other challenges of the region in terms of dealing with the poverty, the climate change, the interference of others, and indeed, the crimes of the region including those committed by imported religious terror. It is how the security of the region will improve quite dramatically, when the personal tensions among the leaders of the region are removed and they work together for the betterment of the populations of the region and not for others. The region is vast and is some 3.8 million sq.km. with thousands of kilometers of porous borders which are currently used for importing transnational arms and weapons of whatever class or nature from small arms to large ones and latest war technologies of drones and surveillance equipment.
A region working together would be able to manage the inflow of arms and weapons of whatever nature into the region. This would allow free trade and customs union and other collaborative economic activities to take hold in the region. This will enhance transportation infrastructures as well, be it land, sea and air and it will allow the region to negotiate better terms with other regional blocks and countries instead of dealing with them on individual country basis as is the case at present.
The dynamics of the years ahead for the region are unclear for the time being. The region seems to be under the spell of non-regional parties who are competing over, not only the waters of the region, but also other resources, which among others include keeping the region dead and underdeveloped, marred in its own internal ethnic conflicts.
Wars between the countries of the region and in particular between Somalia and Ethiopia over Ethiopia’s blatant interference in Somai affairs is likely and would disrupt life in the region. Ethiopia may end up fighting for its survival instead of attaining a sea access as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia repeatedly announces. It is a grim period with investments probably linked only to Somalia’s offshore oil and gas projects being probably the largest. No investments will touch the countries of the region as long as they keep the war footing in place, with Ethiopia’s floating currency losing more value and its economy becoming more shattered through the inappropriate political choices the Ethiopian administration, both internally and externally.
Sudan’s plentiful gold and its eastern coastline on the Red Sea attract many governments to the country. It is probably why Sudan is much like Somalia a country in trouble because of its resources and location. The Sudanese, however, unlike Somalis represent different ethnicities, which is being exploited to the fullest by many of the foreign parties.
For now, it is only watching the region as it drifts apart and the years ahead are as unclear as they could ever be.