Do or Die: Mariners at Astros Series Preview
The Mariners head to Houston for a do-or-die series.
Despite the agonizing loss on Sunday, the Mariners still have a slim chance of sneaking into the playoffs during the final week of the season. Technically, they’re not even eliminated from the AL West just yet, though that could change with a single loss to the Astros this week. With both the Royals and Twins in free fall, the Wild Card race remains the most likely path forward. I’ll go over the potential scenarios in the final section of this preview — tl;dr: the Mariners need to win at least five of their games this week and six would be ideal.
To keep their slim playoff hopes alive, the M’s will need to overcome the Astros. Seattle has already won a series in Houston this year and swept a series there in mid-August last year. Since June 1, the ‘Stros have been the best team in the American League, though their ascent to the top the AL West hasn’t been exactly smooth. This isn’t the juggernaut we’re used to seeing, though it’s clear they’re still the best team in the division.
The Astros’ lineup looks a little different from the last time the Mariners faced them immediately following the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker, who missed three months of the season due to a fractured shin, is back and quickly making up for all that lost time. The Astros also picked up Jason Heyward off the scrap heap after he was released by the Dodgers in August; he’s given Houston a capable left-handed bat for the bottom of their lineup and essentially replaced Chas McCormick on the roster. The big question mark for this series is the status of Yordan Alvarez; he injured his knee on Sunday while sliding into second base and will be undergoing imaging to determine the severity of the injury on Monday.
Probable Pitchers
From a previous series preview:
Hunter Brown has had an extremely weird season so far. He was absolutely pummeled to start the season, running a 9.78 ERA through his first six starts. He experimented with adding a sinker to his repertoire beginning with his start against the Mariners on May 5 and it’s worked pretty well; he’s run a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts since adding that pitch to his arsenal. He doesn’t have pinpoint accuracy with his fastballs, leading to far too many heaters left over the heart of the plate. He also doesn’t have as much confidence in his secondary offerings which means his pitch mix is extremely fastball heavy, even if the sinker has allowed him to diversify his offerings.
Brown held the Mariners scoreless across six innings in his last outing against them in July. Altogether, he’s allowed three runs in 16.1 innings against Seattle this year.
From a previous series preview:
A minor elbow injury cost Framber Valdez a couple of weeks of the first month of the season. Valdez wasn’t quite as good last year as he was in his huge 2022 breakout season. A new cutter really helped him down the stretch but that pitch has disappeared from his pitch mix this year. His two breaking balls are still fantastic and true plus plus pitches, but his arsenal needs something that sits between them and his 95 mph sinker.
Valdez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball during the second half of the season; his ERA and FIP sit at 1.74 and 2.50, respectively, since the All-Star break. The Mariners have done well to score 10 runs off him in three previous outings.
From a previous series preview:
Yusei Kikuchi finally put together his best stateside season last year, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 4.12 FIP and accumulating 2.6 fWAR. The key to his breakout? Reducing his walk rate to just 6.9% while still striking out an above average number of batters. He managed to locate his slider in the zone more than half the time while still maintaining the pitch’s whiff rate. He also cut his home run rate by more than eight points thanks to a fastball that finally delivered positive results that align with the pitch’s fantastic physical characteristics.
Kikuchi was the Astros big deadline acquisition and many (including myself) derided the amount of talent they gave up to acquire him. Houston definitely knew what they were doing because Kikuchi has been great since switching teams; he’s posted a 3.00 ERA and a 3.30 FIP with the Astros and the team has won every single game he’s started. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed thanks to a revamped plan of attack with his slider.
The Big Picture:
Because the Mariners do not own any tiebreakers against any of the teams they’re chasing in the Wild Card race they need to make up three games on the Tigers or Royals this week and surpass the Twins by two games. Here are the various permutations of results needed elsewhere based on how many games the Mariners win this week:
If the Mariners go 6-0:
- The Tigers OR Royals need to go 3-3 or worse AND
- The Twins need to go 4-2 or worse
If the Mariners go 5-1:
- The Tigers OR Royals need to 2-4 or worse AND
- The Twins need to go 3-3 or worse
If the Mariners go 4-2:
- The Tigers OR Royals need to 1-5 or worse AND
- The Twins need to go 2-4 or worse
The Tigers have the White Sox on the schedule to end the season so you can pretty much bank three wins for them already which means the Mariners need to really hope that Kansas City and Minnesota continue their free fall.
Rooting/scoreboard watching interests this week:
- Marlins over Twins
- Nationals over Royals
- Rays over Tigers
- Orioles over Yankees (to keep the AL East race close for the final weekend of the season when Baltimore plays Minnesota)
- Mets over Braves (to keep the NL Wild Card race close for the final weekend of the season when Atlanta plays Kansas City)