What are MLB’s playoff tiebreakers?
What are the tiebreaker procedures?
The Yankees, and Guardians have both clinched at least a share of the division title, and the Houston Astros could clinch the Western Division tonight. But the Wild Card race remains unsettled going into the final week of the season. Here are the current Wild Card standings:
The Orioles are sliding, but they seem to have the top Wild Card secured. Four teams are within two games of the last two spots however, potentially giving us a chaotic final week of the season.
The Royals still control their own destiny - win and you’re in. But that has proven harder in practice, as the team has lost seven in a row. The Twins haven’t played much better, dropping 12 of their last 18. The Tigers, who were sellers at the deadline and were eight games under .500 as recently as August 10, have won 27 of 38 since, the best record in baseball over that time. And even the Mariners, who have been mediocre for much of the year, find themselves lurking in the hunt with a chance to make the playoffs if they can get hot in the final week.
The teams are bunched together enough that the possibility of two or more teams finishing with the same record is high. Baseball no longer plays a “game 163” to settle two teams finishing with the same record, instead all tiebreakers in seeding fall under the same procedure.
For two team ties, the first tiebreakers is head-to-head matchups. So for the Wild Card teams:
- The Royals hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers, but not the Twins, and they tied the Mariners (see below).
- The Tigers hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners, but not the Twins nor the Royals.
- The Twins hold the tiebreaker over the Royals, Tigers, and Mariners.
- The Mariners do not hold the tiebreaker over anyone.
If two teams are tied in head-to-head record - like the Royals and Mariners - the next tiebreaker is intradivision record, even if the two teams play in different divisions. The Royals went 33-19 in their division (thank you White Sox!), while the Mariners have gone 27-19 so far with six games remaining against the Astros and A’s. They would have to sweep this week to equal the Royals, which would send us to the third tiebreaker - intraleague record.
The Royals are done playing AL teams, finishing 63-53 in their own league. The Mariners have gone 54-56 in the league, with six games remaining, but there is no way they could catch the Royals. So the Royals would win the tiebreaker over the Mariners.
What if there is a three-way tie? If one team has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the other two teams, they would win the tiebreaker, and the other two teams would revert to the head-to-head tiebreakers. If all three teams each have a tiebreaker over another team, then it goes to overall winning percentage against the other two teams. So let’s look at some scenarios:
- If it is Royals, Tigers, Twins, it would be 2nd WC Twins, 3rd WC Royals, Tigers out
- If it is Royals, Tigers Mariners, it would be 2nd WC Royals, 3rd WC Tigers, Mariners out
- If it is Royals, Twins, Mariners, it would be 2nd WC Twins, 3rd WC Royals, Mariners out
- If it is Tigers, Tigers, Mariners, it would be 2nd WC Twins, 3rd WC Tigers, Mariners out
And what if all four teams tie? CHAOS! The four teams would be ordered by winning percentage against the other three teams. Here’s how that would stack up:
Twins (19-14, .576)
Tigers (17-15, .531)
Royals (16-16, .500)
Mariners (6-13, .316)
So the Twins would be the second Wild Card, the Tigers would be the third Wild Card, and the Royals and Mariners would be at home.
Got all that? Hopefully the Royals can just get the bats going and win some games to clinch this week. But Royals fans may be holding their butts until the final out on Sunday.