Can Jarred Vanderbilt stay on the floor enough to help the Lakers?
Jarred Vanderbilt is a key to the Lakers defensive ceiling, but injuries and offensive limitations could get in the way of him being on the floor enough to fulfill his promise.
Welcome to our Lakers Season Preview Series! For the next several weeks, we’ll be writing columns every weekday, breaking down the biggest questions we have about every player the Lakers added this offseason. Today, we take a look at Jarred Vanderbilt.
After acquiring him at the 2023 trade deadline, the Lakers saw firsthand the type of impact Jarred Vanderbilt could have for them — particularly on the defensive side of the floor.
His ability to defend almost any type of perimeter threat at the point of attack on the ball while still helping to disrupt offenses by jumping passing lanes and navigating screens helped elevate the Lakers defense in ways they had not seen since Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope were on the roster.
Add in Vando’s ability to clean the defensive glass and offer some backline rim protection and he was a fantastic complement to Anthony Davis and someone who helped fill out all different types of lineups with his defensive versatility.
However, in the team’s playoff run that spring, Vanderbilt’s offensive limitations were spotlighted by opposing defenses as the more targeted gameplans by opposing offenses gamed to put him in more compromised defensive positions to limit his effectiveness. By the time the Western Conference Finals ended in a Nuggets sweep, Vando was a sideline spectator who had been replaced in the starting lineup.
And then last season, Vanderbilt had a season from hell from an injury perspective, hurting his heel in the preseason and then spraining his foot in early February — effectively ending his season. In between those two injuries, the need to work his way back into game shape and inconsistent playing time limited his minutes and, ultimately, his impact on what was supposed to be a building block season in which he cemented his status as a key role player and reinforced the investment the team made in him with his contract extension.
After that lost season, the hope is that Vando can solidify his role and return to form, but rumblings of him not being fully healthy and potentially not ready for the start of training camp linger, putting his status into jeopardy again.
What is his best-case scenario?
For Vando to take that step forward into reliability, there’s three key factors:
- Health
- Offensive improvement
- Trust and belief from the coaching staff
The best case for him and the Lakers is that all three of these things break in Vando’s direction, setting him up to play the type of role that the Lakers desperately need in their rotation.
It’s well understood that Vanderbilt can be a high-level defensive player whose versatility allows him to defend players ranging from big guards and wings like Luka Doncic, Devin Booker and Jason Tatum to small and shifty guards like Ja Morant or even Steph Curry.
A healthy season would not only allow Vando to be available to take on these asks but would also impose zero limitations on his ability to do them effectively. Last season, even when available, it was clear that Vando was not always himself physically, which limited his effectiveness. Good health would eliminate those concerns.
The other part of this, however, is how well Vando can play offensively and how much the coaches prioritize that success and believe in his value to drive their want to have him in the game. If Vanderbilt can show he can knock down the wide-open threes the defense will give him at just a respectable rate, it will go a long way toward cementing that trust.
Beyond the shooting, if Vando can also show he’s improved his concentration on catching the ball cleanly and finishing at the rim, it will further open up the playbook to make him more of a half-court threat.
This will require JJ Redick and his staff to help Vando help the team by incorporating him into the offense in ways that put him in positions to succeed vs. the types of coverages thrown against him, but we already saw hints of how that could work last season to pretty good results.
The key, then, is bridging all of these ideas. No small task, but certainly one that is on the table.
What is his worst-case scenario?
On the other side of the coin, we also understand what the worst case can be.
Reports of lingering health issues are already out there. A season in which he’s not fully healthy, particularly to begin the year, could torpedo his year before it ever really gets momentum, putting him behind the eight-ball and playing catchup.
Further, if he’s even just slowed down — even when available — his ability to chase and play with his patented high motor could be impacted and his overall effectiveness would then be lowered, too.
And then, of course, there’s the chance that his lack of health has impacted his training and skill development offensively and ultimately left him looking very much like the player who struggles to hit open shots and is not ready to be a positive contributor on offense beyond some screen setting, some transition play and the occasional put-back or finish via a spoon-fed assist.
And, if that’s the case, we are very likely to see the same player who can be a help defensively in an 82-game season — as his health permits — but not someone who can be relied upon in the playoffs as the gameplans get sharper and individual player weaknesses are highlighted.
What is his most likely role on the team?
I think the most likely outcome for Vando this season is a combination of both the best and worst-case scenarios laid out above.
On the positive side, I think Redick will see Vando’s value as a defensive floor-raiser whose skill set is needed to help the team thrive. Accordingly, I think he’ll value him as a key rotation player and potentially even a part-time starter who helps balance out the team’s lineups — particularly ones that need more perimeter defense and motor.
I also think Redick has a good understanding of how to leverage non-shooters in a five-out offense and that he’ll cook up ideas on how to use Vanderbilt in the halfcourt as a screener, cutter, DHO player, and short-roll worker who can use his activity to get into the cracks of the defense and finish when the defense shifts its attention to the Lakers bigger offensive threats.
That said, the fears about Vando’s health and general availability are already staring the team in the face and there seems to be a real chance that he does not begin the season healthy. Under a new coach, I think this could put him in a position where it takes him longer to find his stride and settle into the type of role envisioned for him, potentially upsetting ideal rotations and five-man groupings in the process.
Further, while it’s fine to hope that sharper schemes and attention to detail can help Vando offensively, I think it’s also fair to wonder if meaningful strides as a shooter or finisher in traffic will materialize. And, if that is the case, how useful he can be offensive and the ceiling that puts on him and the lineups he plays in would be real questions.
Ultimately, then, I see a version of Vando in which he proves really useful on defense and a strong regular season player when healthy, but also someone whose playoff utility is again put front and center and is more dependent on matchups for success than just his general ability to impact the game against every type of opponent.
You can follow Darius on Twitter at @forumbluegold.