How soon can the Valkyries contend?

Soon, hopefully.

Basketball is about to get a whole lot more exciting in the Bay Area. Just as you’re hopefully cheering on the Golden State Warriors through a deep playoff run, a second team will start playing at Chase Center: the Golden State Valkyries.

The Valkyries will kick off their inaugural season next year, as the 13th team in the WNBA. The next year, Portland and Toronto will join Golden State as expansion franchises, bringing the WNBA to at least 15 teams (another expansion team could still be on the table).

We know that Joe Lacob, who owns both the Warriors and Valkyries, has little patience for losing. He’s brash and competitive, and has already guaranteed that the team will win a title within its first five years. But what can we realistically expect from the Valkyries in terms of competitiveness and timeline?

There’s not a lot of precedent. After debuting with eight teams for the inaugural 1997 WNBA season, the league added eight expansion franchises over the next three seasons. But we can’t really learn much from them, as it doesn’t really feel like a true expansion franchise when you’re joining a league where no teams have established themselves yet.

Instead, we have to look at teams that joined the W once it was already up and running fully. And there are only two teams that fit that bill: the Chicago Sky and the Atlanta Dream. So how did they do?

The Sky joined the WNBA in 2006, which brought the league up to 14 teams at the time. Things did not go particularly well for Chicago, as they went just 5-29 in their debut season, finishing with half as many wins as the next-worst team.

It wasn’t until their eighth season that Chicago finished with a winning record or made the playoffs (they did both that year), and in their ninth season they made it to the WNBA Finals, though they were swept by the Phoenix Mercury. In 2021 — their 16th season in the WNBA — the Sky exacted their revenge on the Mercury, and won their first (and to date, only) WNBA championship.

Two years after Chicago joined the league, Atlanta followed suit, also becoming the 14th team in the league after the Charlotte Sting had folded. Like the Sky, the Dream got off to an absolutely dismal start, going 4-30 in their debut season. But unlike Chicago, Atlanta immediately found their groove: in their second season they sported an 18-16 record, and made the postseason for the first of what would become a six-year streak of playoff appearances. They made the WNBA Finals in three of those six seasons, though they lost each time and remain one of three active franchises without a title, joining the Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty. Still and all, their fast-track to contention is something that the Valkyries can model themselves after.

There are also a few reasons to think that Golden State can be closer to Atlanta than to Chicago when it comes to immediate success. Lacob and the rest of the ownership group stand out as a clear advantage. While the salary cap will keep Golden State from spending ludicrously out of the gates, and the CBA prohibits owners from spending money on certain perks, there can be no denying that Lacob’s open-wallet approach will be a pull, especially in a league where players are often overlooked and undervalued.

I used to be a beat reporter for the Sparks, the WNBA’s Los Angeles team, which not only plays in a huge, basketball-obsessed city, but has championship pedigree, a history of star power, and a very wealthy ownership group. Yet the Sparks have bounced all over the greater-LA area practicing, usually making their practice home in collegiate gyms. Not only is it offensive to ask the world’s best players to practice out of small-scale college gyms (and commute all over the city to get to them), but those gyms usually are lacking in the perks that NBA players have: weight rooms, training rooms, film setups, and clock equipment to help simulate game situations.

Golden State’s ownership group is, thankfully and justly, not doing that to the Valkyries. The Vs (is that an acceptable nickname?) will have a full setup just for themselves, as the Warriors old practice facility in Oakland has been renovated for the Valkyries. The organization unveiled the facilities recently, and they’re frankly a mile ahead of what the bulk of the league’s teams use. That’s the type of perk and commitment that will make Golden State a desirable home for free agent targets.

Furthermore, the Valkyries will have their own, high-end locker room at Chase Center, where their home games will be played. That’s also a very unique thing in the WNBA, where teams are usually at smaller arenas, or stuffed into smaller locker rooms if they play at NBA facilities.

A few months ago, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Marisa Ingemi quoted Liberty star and Bay Area native Sabrina Ionescu as saying, “They’re in good hands over there. My experience with the (New York) Liberty having committed ownership, with the (Brooklyn) Nets ownership there, holding us to a really high standard because we see what the men get. I think that will hold true with Golden State as well because they understand the investment that’s needed.”

Indeed, the Liberty were sold to Joe Tsai, who owns the NBA’s Nets, in 2019. He instantly became a favorite among players for his investment and commitment to the team, even accruing fines for going against the CBA and chartering flights for his players. It seems likely that the resources he gave the team played a role in them becoming a hot spot for high-profile free agents — including signing superstar Breanna Stewart prior to the 2023 season, even though Stewart had recently won a pair of championships with the Seattle Storm.

The Valkyries will also benefit from the depth of the WNBA, which is significantly greater than it was when the Sky and Dream were joining the league. While the W has yet to unveil how the expansion draft will go, it’s safe to assume that Golden State will have access to a better pool of players than Chicago and Atlanta did. If they’re building a roster out of sixth and seventh-best players on other teams, they could steal field a competitive team as early as their first year, if they can make a splash in free agency.

And there’s a splash in free agency to be had. Between potentially grabbing some quality players in an expansion draft and becoming a desirable home for players, the Valkyries should be players in a free agency class that includes players like Stewart, former Stanford star Nneka Ogwumike, Brittney Griner, Kelsey Plum, Alyssa Thomas, Brionna Jones, DeWanna Bonner, and so many more high-profile names.

In other words, Lacob’s promise of a championship in the early years might be brash, but it might not be inaccurate.