GOP scrambles to contain Robinson fallout in North Carolina
Republicans are scrambling to mitigate the fallout from North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson’s latest scandal, fearful it could cost them more than just the governor’s mansion as the state becomes a critical battleground in the presidential race.
CNN’s bombshell report Thursday that Robinson made many inflammatory comments concerning race, gender and sexual preferences has left Republicans seeking distance from him. Democrats, meanwhile, have sought to underscore Robinson’s ties to other candidates, including former President Trump, who has heaped praise on the North Carolina lieutenant governor in the past.
While questions remain as to the effect Robinson could have on the White House race and other contests in the Tar Heel State, Republicans acknowledge that the controversies surrounding their gubernatorial candidate could prove to be a drag on their party in November.
“This is a unique situation where you’re not just seeing somebody who’s putting the down-ballot races in jeopardy, but I think it’s going to have an up-ballot effect as well,” said one Republican consultant working in North Carolina, adding that it could “really hurt” Trump’s chances of winning the state.
Robinson’s candidacy already seemed to be in trouble before the latest reports. Although North Carolina is one of the main battleground states and Trump and Vice President Harris are currently about even in polling there, Democratic candidate Josh Stein had been leading Robinson by double digits in many polls.
Members of both parties had said they expected a closer race in November, but Stein seemed to be in the stronger position to win.
That feeling has only grown after the report that Robinson made a litany of comments on a pornography website’s message board, including that he was a “Black Nazi,” his wishing for slavery to come back, and his preference that Adolf Hitler be in charge of the country over former President Obama.
Whispers surfaced online throughout Thursday in advance of the story’s release that Republicans were pressing Robinson to drop out, as he was already struggling and his campaign was set to take another hit. The timing was instantly critical, as candidates only had until just before midnight Friday to withdraw from a race.
But Robinson vowed in advance of CNN’s story that he would stay in the race, seemingly dooming hopes of a last-minute change. He denounced the story as fake and accused the Stein campaign of leaking it.
The consultant said they personally thought Robinson would step aside and that political leaders in the state were “all aware” of the pending deadline, but Robinson’s statement made clear that “there’s no going back.”
After some delay, state officials mailed out the first absentee ballots Friday, including not just Robinson’s name but other Republicans running in the same state who have publicly embraced him previously.
The state party issued a statement Thursday evening backing Robinson, accusing Democrats of trying to “demonize” him, but other Republicans have criticized the comments and hinted at concerns for what they could mean for the GOP’s chances throughout the state.
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) posted on social platform X that the party must “stay focused on races we can win,” mentioning Trump and contests for state Assembly and judicial races.
Veteran North Carolina GOP strategist Carter Wrenn said the result of a gubernatorial race normally would not affect a presidential race much, but it could this time if Robinson loses by as much as the polls show him trailing by.
During the primaries, Trump gave his highly coveted endorsement to Robinson, further cementing him to become the nominee after he already was the front-runner for the nomination. And Democrats are now pointing to Trump’s praise of Robinson to tie the two of them together.
The Harris campaign’s X account has posted numerous photos of Trump and Robinson together and videos of the former president complementing Robinson.
The Trump campaign did not directly address the allegations against Robinson in a statement but emphasized the importance of North Carolina to Trump’s path to victory.
“President Trump’s campaign is focused on winning the White House and saving this country,” said Karoline Leavitt, the campaign’s national press secretary. “North Carolina is a vital part of that plan. We are confident that as voters compare the Trump record of a strong economy, low inflation, a secure border, and safe streets, with the failures of Biden-Harris, then President Trump will win the Tar Heel State once again. We will not take our eye off the ball.”
But a source told The Hill that Robinson will not attend Trump’s scheduled rally in the state on Saturday. The gubernatorial candidate had joined Trump during his rally there last month.
Wrenn said Robinson and Trump have a similar vulnerability on the question of character and could both be dragged down.
“Swing voters, which is what really matters, they’re going to look at Robinson and say, ‘I’m not gonna vote for him because I don’t like him,’” he said. “They may say I don’t like Trump either.”
Democrats meanwhile are feeling even more optimistic than before about their chances in the state. They said a race is never over until all the votes are counted, but Stein should get a boost and that can apply to other Democrats too.
North Carolina Democratic strategist Doug Wilson said he still thinks the race may tighten toward November, but Robinson may have already been having a downward effect on Trump more than originally believed. He pointed to a recent poll that showed Harris up in the state by a point.
“That tells me that Harris has momentum here and that Robinson has probably been pulling down Trump more than a lot of strategists like myself and others have realized,” Wilson said.
And Republicans said the impact could be felt even more in the lower-level races.
North Carolina GOP strategist Doug Heye said the revelations are “deadly” for downballot candidates, and one candidate competing for statewide office told him they thought they were “toast.”
“They’ll be stung by this,” Heye said.
A couple candidates in key races seem to be trying to create some distance.
Republican Laurie Buckhout, who is running in the only competitive House district against an incumbent Democrat, appears to have deleted at least two photos of her and Robinson together from her X account. A pro-Democratic super PAC called her out over it.
Scott Lassiter, a Republican candidate in a competitive state Senate district, called on Robinson to suspend his candidacy after the report surfaced.
The North Carolina consultant said they would not be surprised if other candidates follow Lassiter’s lead, but the next week will be telling. They said candidates often tend to take a wait-and-see approach, but they need to decide “to what extent” they are willing to disavow Robinson or call on him to step aside.
“I think that’s what it’s going to take for a lot of these folks to be able to revive their candidacies,” the consultant said.
Wrenn viewed that as less likely, saying he expects them to “shake their heads and say, ‘I don’t know the facts. It doesn’t sound good,’ and then they’ll just submerge and won’t say anything more.” He said the Republican candidates in deep-red districts may feel safer and not want to offend a Republican base.
“But if you’re in a district where swing voters matter, this stuff for Robinson’s gonna bite you,” he said.