Giants series preview: The last home series of the year
The high-priced Giants haven’t recaptured the success of 2014.
The Giants wonthree titles in the 2010s, including the 2014 World Series over the Royals. But since 2016 they have had just one winning season - a 107-win, post-season disappointment in 2021. They have also become overshadowed by their rivals, the juggernaut Dodgers.
They came into this season hoping to contend with the ninth-largest payroll in baseball and investments in free agents like Jung Ho Lee, Jorge Soler, Jordan Hicks, Matt Chapman, and two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell. But they’ve been a pretty mediocre team all season, traded Soler mid-season, and have lost many key players to injury. Of the 25 players that made the Giants Opening Day roster, only 14 will be available for the first game of this series. The disappointing season will likely cost executive Farhan Zaidi his job.
San Francisco Giants (74-79) vs. Kansas City Royals (82-71) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Giants: 4.25 runs scored/game (17th in MLB), 4.38 runs allowed/game (17th)
Royals: 4.69 runs scored/game (9th), 4.05 runs allowed/game (7th)
The Giants have dropped 16 of their last 25 games, a slide that included a 32-inning scoreless streak. They are coming off a road sweep of the contending Baltimore Orioles, but have been a poor road team overall, going 33-42.
The Giants are hitting .238 as a team with the tenth-lowest on-base percentage in baseball. Their .665 OPS with runners in scoring position is the fourth-worst mark in baseball. They have fared worse against right-handers, batting just .232/.300/.383 against them compared to .254/.322/.415 against lefties.
Matt Chapman is on paternity leave and could return this weekend - he leads the team with 24 home runs, but has struck out 150 times. Tyler Fitzgerald has been a phenomenon since his recall from the minors in early July, hitting .296/.346/.549 with 13 home runs in 56 games. Heliot Ramos is hitting .373/.444/.745 against lefties. LaMonte Wade Jr. has the third-best walk rate in baseball among hitters with 350 plate appearances.
Brett Wisely is hitting 7-for-his-last 60 (.117). Patrick Bailey is hitting just .203/.279/.291 on the road. Only two teams have stolen fewer bases than the Giants. Bailey has thrown out 27 percent of would-be base-stealers and has the best pitch-framing metrics in baseball.
Mason Black is a rookie ranked #8 in the Giants farm system by MLB Pipeline who has been up and down this year, posting a 4.59 ERA in 20 Triple-A starts. He has never gone more than five innings in a MLB start and has given up a home run in every outing. He throws a 92 mph fastball that opponents are hitting .343 against with a sinker, sweeper, slider, and change up.
Landen Roupp was a reliever most of the year, but has been stretched out his last three games. In two starts, he has given up just seven hits and two runs in 10 innings of work. He has yet to give up a run on the road, although that has come in just eight relief appearances. He throws a curve 44 percent of the time with a 35.9 percent whiff rate. He has a 47.3 groundball rate and has allowed just one home run all year.
Blake Snell got off to a slow start, but has come around to his Cy Young form since the start of July with a 1.33 ERA and opponents batting average of .125 in 13 starts. He gave up just one hit in six innings in his last outing against the Orioles, striking out 12 hitters. Lefties are hitting just .109/.246/.236 against him this year. In four career starts against the Royals, he is 1-3 with a 7.27 ERA. He throws 95 mph with one of the best curves in the game.
The Giants bullpen has a 4.01 ERA with the fourth-fewest blown saves in baseball. All-Star reliever Camilo Doval, who led the league in saves last year, lost his closer’s role and was demoted at one point and has continued to struggle since his return, allowing nine runs in his last ten innings.
Ryan Walker has gotten recent save opportunities and has the second-most appearances in the National League. The second-year pitcher has the 15th-lowest ERA among qualified relievers with the four-best slider and a 33 percent strikeout rate. Erik Miller has allowed just one earned run in his last 9 1⁄3 innings with 16 strikeouts. Lefties are hitting just .159/.275/.205 against him, striking out 38 percent of the time. Taylor Rogers has a reverse platoon split, with lefties hitting him much better than righties. His twin brother Tyler Rogers has a 4.86 ERA on the road.
The Royals are still in good position for the playoffs, but they really need to win this series to feel better about not collapsing down the stretch. They’ll face some inexperienced, ineffective pitchers in the first two games, and an offense that has been struggling lately. They can’t panic over a poor stretch of games, and if they get back to the play that got them to this point, they should be able to win the last home series of the year.