Debate between columnist and polling data aggregator spills into online cursing match
Political stalwart and longtime columnist Greg Sargent on Friday got into a spat with Real Clear Politics co-founder Tom Bevan over the 2024 election polls.
In a chart Bevans uploaded to the social media site X, he provided a column showing how far off the polling numbers were in 2020 and 2016. The implication is that the polls recently, showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading, are just as far off as they were in 2020 and 2016.
Sargent, however, said that Bevan should not simply assume that the polls in 2024 are just as off as they have been in the last two elections.
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"Tom, you neglected to mention that many pollsters have taken steps to correct for previous presidential-year errors," said Sargent. "You also seem to have said nothing here about how pollsters performed in 2022. Don't these omissions risk misleading your followers?"
"In other words, Tom," he continued, "don't these omissions risk giving your followers a sense of false hope? Sure, the same polling errors are *possible* again. But simply signaling to your followers to expect that to happen without mentioning adjustments seems like it does them a disservice."
Sargent then expanded on why he believed Bevan to be mistaken.
"Your followers are now tweeting that they are *certain* the polls are wrong, and that Trump is *certain* to win," he posted. "Unless your goal is to actively deceive your followers, you might want to let them know that you are not nearly as certain of that."
Bevan, however, responded with curses.
"What a ridiculous chickens--- thing to say, not to mention dishonest," he complained. "I said very clearly, 'Maybe they'll get it right this year. We'll know on Nov 6.' I have no idea who will win Pennsylvania. Neither do you. It's close. The whole election is close."
Sargent remarked that Bevan sounded "angry."
"But posting the errors of 2016/2020 without also noting that correctives have been made is, in fact, giving your followers false hope. Just read their replies. And yes, it's close. I have no idea who will win. That's why I cite the averages on the pod," Sargent said, about his New Republic podcast.