Assessing the state of the Oscar race after Toronto, Venice and Telluride

Now that the fall festivals of Toronto, Venice and Telluride have concluded, a number of anticipated awards season hopefuls have now premiered in front of audiences and critics. Some films that were at one point considered strong contenders are being reevaluated, while other films that were outside of prognosticators’ radars are suddenly looking likely to pick up a nod or two come Oscar nominations morning.

“Joker: Folie à Deux” received a somewhat mixed response in Venice. While critics have generally respected the new tonal direction of the sequel, most agree that it’s not quite as good as the first, which notably won the Golden Lion at Venice in 2019. As a result, the film has dropped out of the top ten in Gold Derby’s combined odds for Best Picture (15th at the time of writing), while star Joaquin Phoenix has dropped out of the top five for Best Actor (now 7th). Lady Gaga, who is now seemingly campaigning as a supporting actress instead of in lead, is in 10th place in her category. This could, however, be due to the fact that GD users have yet to update their predictions in light of the category switch. While none of this is good news to the campaign team of the Warner Bros. sequel, the fact that the first film also received mixed reviews from critics before becoming the most-nominated film at the Oscars that season should give them some hope.

SEE Oscar hopefuls descend on Venice and Toronto film festivals in search of buzz, awards season liftoff

The sequel did not win Venice’s top prize as its predecessor did; that honor went instead to Pedro Almodóvar’s English-language debut “The Room Next Door.” The drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has been receiving rave reviews from critics, with some calling it Almodóvar’s best film in years. Despite this, the film has remained outside of the Best Picture top 10 (13th) due to its mixed audience reaction. The movie doesn’t seem to have broad appeal, meaning that for now it will have to wait until its December theatrical release to see if that’s true.

As foreshadowed by my article written prior to the fall festivals, eyes have turned towards Pablo Larraín’s “Maria” since its premiere, specifically in the Best Actress category. Angelina Jolie’s turn as the opera legend Maria Callas was the talk of Venice, and her odds have shot up from outside the top fifty contenders to third. She may have missed out on the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at the festival to Nicole Kidman for “Babygirl” (also in GD’s predicted top 5), but Oscar-winner Jolie now seems primed to receive her first Academy Award nomination since 2010. Similarly, Venice saw Daniel Craig’s chances at a Best Actor nomination for his role in Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer” shoot up to fifth in our combined odds. Like “Maria,” though, “Queer’s” chances to get into the Best Picture lineup seem slim, with both films finding themselves well outside the top 20 contenders on Gold Derby.

The final picture – and perhaps most significant with relation to the Oscars – to discuss from Venice is “The Brutalist.” A film that didn’t figure in the top fifty in our combined odds for Best Picture prior to Venice now finds itself in 7th. Reviews have been stellar for this three-and-a-half-hour epic starring Adrien Brody, who is said to give one of the best performances of the year, and perhaps his entire career. It may have surprisingly missed out on the Golden Lion, but Brady Corbet did take home the Best Director prize at the festival and is now in pole position to crack into the top five in our combined odds for the Oscars. So is Guy Pearce – currently in 6th place for the Best Supporting Actor category – who has surprisingly never been nominated for an Academy Award. Brody, on the other hand, is now 4th in our odds to get a Best Actor nomination, which, if proven correct, would mark his second in the category. That first nomination saw him win Best Actor in 2003 for “The Pianist,” making him the youngest actor in history to do so.

Coming out of a lot of buzz from Telluride is RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys,” a drama about segregation during the Jim Crow era. This is Ross’ narrative feature debut, with his only other feature film being the documentary “Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” which cracked into the Best Documentary lineup at the Oscars in 2019. Its glowing reviews have seen “Nickel Boys” maintain its place in Gold Derby’s predicted ten for Best Picture, currently 8th. Users are also expecting a nomination in Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, both in third place.

Currently ranked first in our odds for Best Supporting Actress is Danielle Deadwyler, whose performance in “The Piano Lesson” is said to be a standout. Unfortunately, the reviews for the film have been solid but not stellar, meaning its chances at a Best Picture nomination seem to be slipping. Samuel L. Jackson is reportedly not in the film for as long as Gold Derby users expected, and has thus dropped from first place to sixth in the Best Supporting Actor race. In lead, John David Washington has also slipped to sixth in his category.

Jason Reitman’s “Saturday Night” was one of the most talked-about films at Telluride and TIFF this year. Though the reception has generally been positive, it has received scathing reviews from a few big publications, and it failed to place in the top three at TIFF’s People’s Choice Awards as many expected. Nevertheless, it’s right on the periphery to nab a Best Picture nomination, moving up from 16th to 12th in our combined odds, while also moving closer towards a Best Original Screenplay nomination. Also failing to place but receiving a much more positive critical response is Edward Berger’s “Conclave.” The psychological thriller starring Ralph Fiennes has remained firm in our pre-TIFF estimation, continuing to land among the nominees for picture, director, actor and adapted screenplay in our predicted odds.

The big story out of TIFF this year is “The Life of Chuck” unexpectedly winning People’s Choice. Directed by Mike Flanagan and starring an ensemble cast that includes Tom Hiddleston, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Mark Hamill, few could have predicted this life-affirming sci-fi drama to suddenly become part of the Oscars conversation. Just one film since 2008 has managed to win the top prize at TIFF without also earning a Best Picture nomination at the Academy Awards. “The Life of Chuck” will look to replicate the success of “American Fiction,” whose win at TIFF last year was equally unexpected. It ended up receiving five Oscar nominations and winning Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Though currently just 16th in our combined odds for picture, expect that ranking for “Life of Chuck” to rise in the coming weeks. Based on a Stephen King novella, it’s gaining ground in the Adapted Screenplay race as well as the race for Supporting Actor, where Hamill is currently ranked 10th. 

Rounding out the top three at TIFF were “Emilia Pérez” and “Anora,” whose stocks in the Best Picture race have been high since their debuts at Cannes earlier this year. “Emilia Pérez” is solidly in the top 10 in our combined odds for Best Picture, in fifth, while “Anora” is currently our frontrunner, overtaking “Sing Sing” since its appearance at TIFF. Director Sean Baker also finds himself in first for director and original screenplay, meaning that “Anora” looks to be the biggest Oscar contender of the season coming out of the fall festivals.

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