Hurricane season heating up with likely Gulf storm

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — By most measures, the summer of 2024 has been a lackluster hurricane season especially when you compare it to what was expected — a hyperactive season. But there are signs that things are about to pick up.

First, the models have a strong signal for a storm in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The latest American model pictured below at the end of next week is the furthest east and strongest solution.

Secondly, a zone of rising air currently traversing the Pacific will be moving into the Atlantic by next week, and will likely have an enhancing effect on the Atlantic through mid-October.

Lastly, La Nina is finally developing in the Pacific as sea surface temperatures are below critical thresholds in the Equatorial zone. This should help reduce Atlantic wind shear, making the environment more hospitable for hurricanes in the Atlantic.

You can measure the activity of the season by named storms or by accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). To date, we have had seven named storms, which is close to normal for the middle of hurricane season. In terms of ACE, after being above normal due mostly to Category 5 Beryl early in the season, we have now dropped below normal.

The image below shows the ACE tracker from Colorado State University. Normal by now is around 70 units, but the season so far is only at roughly 60 units.

This deficit can unfortunately be made up — and quickly — if a hurricane forms in the Gulf next week. As of now, the National Hurricane Center has outlined an area in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf for a medium chance of development by early next week.

Assuming the system forms, the models bring the storm into the Gulf. But since the system has not even started to form yet, details like strength and track are impossible to pin down. This should become more clear by Sunday or Monday.

The image below, taken from Thursday morning's model, shows where the storm is tracking. The intensity ranges from a tropical storm to a strong hurricane. And since the exact track is unknown as of now, everyone along the Gulf Coast is potentially in play, and will need to keep close tabs on this.

The reason Florida needs to pay close attention to this time of year is three-fold.

First, sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the Caribbean and Gulf are at record levels. This can provide unlimited fuel for any storm that may try to form.

Secondly, systems tend to start forming closer to home due to a large-scale circulation called the Central American Gyre which becomes active in the fall. The Gyre tends to spit out pieces of energy, and due in part to the spin of the parent circulation, these can often become tropical systems, especially in fall.

Third, as seen below, storms that enter the Gulf are more likely to hook eastward as the steering currents adjust to the change of seasons. In summer, systems tend to move westward from the open Tropical Atlantic Ocean due to steering from the Bermuda High.

But in fall, the steering changes as colder air associated with the jet stream begins to press south. In fact, the track of the upcoming potential Gulf system may be influenced by a dip in the jet stream over the U.S., but it's too early to say.

As a result of these factors, by the time we reach late September into October, development is more likely close to the U.S. and no longer as likely in the deep Tropical Atlantic. The tracks of Caribbean and Gulf systems can often recurve back into Florida — consider previous storms like Hurricane Ian in late September and Hurricane Wilma in October.