Mailbag: On the massive Pac-12 expansion penalties, AAC options, the Mountain West’s future and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline

Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

I keep hearing that the Pac-12 is paying the so-called “poaching penalty” for the teams from the Mountain West. But I haven’t heard if the Pac-12 is paying the schools’ exit fees. — Craig B

The financial piece is top-of-mind for many fans — not to mention the involved parties — and worth addressing with as much sweep as possible.

There are two main components:

— The exit fees Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State owe the Mountain West. So long as they give official notice of departure at least one year in advance, the fee is about $18 million per school (one year of conference revenue distributions).

— The poaching penalty that was written into the 2024 scheduling agreement between the Pac-12 and Mountain West and equates to $43 million for the four schools combined.

In all, the Pac-12 and its new members are staring at approximately $115 million, or $28.8 million per school.

Yes, the conference will dip into its reserves to offset the poaching penalty — that’s why it squeezed $65 million out of the 10 departed schools. And there are ways to assist the newcomers with their departure fees. For instance, the Pac-12 could offer loans at little or zero interest.

But as a source told the Hotline recently: “Never in the history of realignment has a departure penalty been paid in full.”

Put another way: In the realignment game, billable hours are the No. 1 overall seed.

Once the attorneys for the Pac-12, the four schools and the Mountain West get serious, the bill won’t remain $115 million for long. At some point, the cost of litigation starts to wear down university presidents.

The Hotline has given much thought to this matter, and we can’t help but wonder if there’s another piece to the Pac-12’s calculus. And it goes something like this: If the Mountain West dissolves, that $115 million could drop to $0.

We don’t believe that outcome is likely, but it’s worth mentioning.

A supermajority vote would be required to dissolve the Mountain West — that’s nine schools.

Currently, there are four votes for dissolution: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State.

If Air Force jumps to the American, where it would join Army and Navy, that’s five.

If the Pac-12 grabbed UNLV and one other school, the count climbs to seven votes for dissolution — only two more needed.

What if a few Mountain West schools determine there isn’t enough media value in the remaining collection to justify sticking around? What if a few scatter to the American or drop to the FCS level?

Might there be enough votes to shut down the conference?

Or the Pac-12 could fully embrace its inner Machiavelli, identify a few schools pondering other leagues and pay them $20 million each to vote for dissolution.

That’s more than any single Mountain West school would get if the eight remaining members split the $115 million, and it would cost the Pac-12 and the four new schools roughly half of what they are currently expected to pay.

Again, this scenario is not only unlikely but probably logistically impractical. But realignment is ruthless — if you haven’t already figured that out — and no scenario should be discounted.

Our general point remains: Once the attorneys get involved, the departure fees and poaching penalty will be revised downward.

What kind of media revenue can the rebuilt Pac-12 expect to have relative to other conferences? — @memomoment

The media rights issue has a chicken-and-egg feel: The conference needs to confirm its membership in order to secure a media deal, but it needs a media deal in order to secure its membership.

Would Memphis, Tulane, UTSA and South Florida — just to name four — agree to leave the American without knowing the essentials of the Pac-12 media deal?

That feels risky. The so-called whisper numbers that networks offer conferences have a way of vanishing into the wind before it comes time to sign term sheets.

That said, here are the relevant numbers:

The American is believed to distribute $7 million to $8 million annually to its members. If the Pac-12 lands a combination of the aforementioned quartet and there’s sufficient media rights demand from linear networks and streamers, then $10 million per school is a reasonable target, with perhaps $12 million at the top end for the total distribution.

If the Pac-12 doesn’t land any of the American schools, which offer both solid markets and flexibility with kickoff windows (thanks to their time zones), then any forthcoming media deal could fall to the $8 million to $9 million per-school range.

So figure $8 million on the low end and $12 million on the high end. We’re fairly confident the deal will land somewhere in that range.

Which, for context, is roughly one-fourth of the Big 12’s campus payouts.

Any chance the Pac-12 and ACC could merge in the future? — @CelestialMosh

The only path to this outcome requires the ACC to fracture, with Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina bolting for the SEC/Big Ten and the remaining schools concluding that a western wing would be the optimal solution.

We find that extremely unlikely.

In the event of a fracture, the remaining ACC schools would attempt to rebuild with the likes of Memphis, UConn and Tulane. Or they would seek a partnership with the Big 12.

Bottom line: There would not be enough competitive or financial value for the ACC to pursue a merger with the reconstituted Pac-12.

Does this new conference mean Oregon State and Washington State have accepted their “relegation” to Group of Five status? — @NateJones2009

You would have to ask them, but the Hotline never believed that membership in the Power Four was anything beyond a remote possibility for WSU and OSU.

That said, let’s be clear on the significance of Power Four status.

Yes, it provides a certain aura, especially in recruiting. And it offers some autonomy on NCAA issues and carries influence on College Football Playoff governance issues.

But as we see it, Power Four status has limited weight in perhaps the most vital matter of all: CFP access.

The new format calls for the five highest-ranked conference champions to receive automatic bids. If you assume the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 winners will be included in the quintet, there is one spot available for the top team from the other leagues.

And there’s nothing within the selection process that precludes the Pac-12 or American winner from being ranked higher than the ACC or Big 12 champ.

So in that regard, the rebuilt Pac-12 has a fairly reasonable path onto the sport’s biggest stage — even though it’s not considered a power conference.

By what date is the Pac-12 required to pay the poaching fee to the Mountain West? — @KevinGH158627

According to the contract, the money is due soon:

“Any Withdrawal Fee which becomes payable by the Pac-12 pursuant to clause (A) of Section 7.01 shall be due and payable to MWC in full in accordance with the terms of Section 2.03 no later than 30 days following the date each such Accepting MWC Member Institution accepts, or announces that it will accept, such offer.”

The Pac-12 announced expansion on Sept. 12, with the schools publicly acknowledging the move in some form or fashion.

However, one note of caution: The Pac-12 could attempt to delay payment to the Mountain West until the departing schools send a written notice of withdrawal — and until their attorneys try to hammer away at the fees.

So that $43 million could be flowing to the Mountain West in the next few weeks or not for many months.

I’m hearing that Tulane and Memphis are working together on analyzing a potential Pac-12 move and that either both schools will make the move together or neither of them will make the move and instead stay in the American. Is that what you’re hearing? — @luigi8604

Generally, yes. There is strength in numbers when it comes to changing conferences. If Memphis and Tulane work together, they have a better chance to raise the price for the Pac-12, lower their departure costs to the American and receive political cover — no one school, president or athletic director could be blamed for undercutting the conference.

This isn’t complicated: If the Pac-12’s offer is good enough, both schools will accept.

If it’s not, they will stay.

Within that calculation, of course, is the American’s counteroffer: Would the remaining members agree to outsized revenue distributions for Memphis and Tulane in exchange for their continued commitment?

That’s the future, folks. Whether it’s the American or the ACC or the Big Ten, unequal revenue distributions are coming to every conference in the next five-to-seven years.

Putting all of the armchair expert opinions aside, who does the Hotline see as likely to fill the No. 7 and 8 slots for the Pac-12? Feel free to suggest a ninth, as well. — @WHS1969

We aren’t convinced the Pac-12 will succeed in grabbing the best of the American, meaning Texas State (Sun Belt) and UNLV could emerge as the top Plan B options.

It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which the Rebels are not part of the rebuilt conference. The booming Las Vegas market is simply too important on numerous fronts, including recruiting.

Also, don’t rule out Air Force, despite the American chatter. Or Gonzaga. The conference is considering schools that don’t play football.

Will we see Mountain West schools follow Idaho to the Football Championship Subdivision? —  @CurtisBlack

Unknowable at this point, although certainly not implausible.

The cost of business in major college football is about to soar, thanks to revenue sharing with athletes. Meanwhile, whatever media rights deal the Mountain West secures will offer pennies on the dollar relative to competing leagues.

We believe it’s far more likely that a few Mountain West schools drop down to FCS than any FCS schools jump into the Mountain West.

Don’t forget, the NCAA recently raised the barrier to entry for FCS schools looking to move up. Long priced at $5,000, membership in the FBS now costs $5 million.

How many former Pac-12 teams want to cash in a mulligan for an opportunity to return? — MrEd315

If we’re being honest, none.

The Hotline firmly believes the eight schools that fled in the summer of 2023 would have preferred to stick together with a reasonable media rights deal.

But now that they are entrenched in new homes, nobody is casting an eye to the rebuilt Pac-12 and seeking a means of reversing course.

For one thing, they are contractually obligated to their new leagues.

For another, they are receiving more revenue in their new leagues than they would collect in a modified version of the Pac-12.

And those are the only issues that really matter.

If the ACC dissolves, what about adding Cal and Stanford to the Pac-12 as football and basketball only schools? Give them full media share but allow them to compete in Olympic sports nationally. — Cole T

Let’s begin this answer with the same word that began the question: If.

If the ACC dissolves, then any number of options would be available to Cal and Stanford, including the one you mentioned. (Under no circumstances would they willingly agree to place their cherished Olympic sports in the rebuilt Pac-12.)

However, we strongly suspect the Bay Area schools would beg for membership in the Big Ten, even at greatly reduced revenue shares.

The presidents would take them, but would Fox approve?

We tend to think so, but that’s hardly a given.

The one thing I was glad about when the Pac-12 dissolved was the notion that I’d never have to see the terrible Pac-12 referees anymore. Are those refs working somewhere else this season? Did everyone agree they were the worst in college football? — Michael M

Many would agree, I’m sure. But there are egregious mistakes in other conferences, too.

And speaking of egregious mistakes elsewhere, Big Ten officials botched a call in Washington’s season opener. They failed to spot an illegal substitution by Weber State that resulted in the ineligible player injuring UW tight end Quentin Moore.

If that had happened in a Pac-12 game, there would have been a firestorm.

And guess what: Those Big Ten officials were hired away from the Pac-12.

Over the course of 18 months, the Big Ten quietly added a slew of former Pac-12 officials to its collection. More games require more bodies, and not for nothing: It’s cheaper to use officials who already live on the West Coast.

So it seems your personal nightmare will continue.

When does the arrangement for bowl games end for the Pac-12? Any ramifications from expansion in 2026? —  @RockDawg3

The current lineup of Pac-12 bowl games, from the Alamo to the Independence, runs through the 2025 season.

Notably, that expiration date coincides with the end of the current College Football Playoff deal with ESPN.

A new CFP agreement has been reached for the fall of 2026, but many details must be finalized, including the number of teams.

Clarity at the CFP level will lead to bowls either extending conference partnerships or seeking new deals.

It’s difficult to predict the outcome, but several Pac-12 bowl partners might look elsewhere in the aftermath of the conference’s demise and rebirth. After all, the brand value of the schools has been lowered.

That said, we have no doubt the reconstituted Pac-12 will secure deals with enough bowls to offer reasonable access to the membership.

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