Bangladesh’s Volte-Face: Strategic Shift From India – OpEd
Has Bangladesh finally emerged from its regional shadow? Leaving aside its previous affiliations, Dhaka is charting an independent course, a course that proactively searches new security strategic partners.
With talks of a nuclear deal with Pakistan resonating through the South Asian region, Bangladesh appears all set to rise up to the challenge and redefine its strategic reality. Being situated between South Asia and South East Asia with proximity to the Bay of Bengal it has a massive advantage. Bangladesh is capitalizing on its strategic location and creating new partnerships, while changing the balance of power in the South Asian region. The discussion on a possible nuclear treaty between Bangladesh and Pakistan is the first step towards such a measure.
Bangladesh’s geographical location an opportunity that the country can tap. Sandwiched between India and with 4,075 km of international border, people often presume that Bangladesh has no choice but to bow to its much larger neighbor. But that is proving to be a gross underestimation of the contribution that Bangladesh can make to the South Asian equation. The access to the sea through the Bay of Bengal provides channels for trade and linkages beyond the Indian control. Secondly and more importantly, the ‘docile’ projection of Bangladesh has begun to weaken as it looks for partners beyond India, especially Pakistan.
The concept of a nuclear treaty with Bangladesh and Pakistan has caused ripples across the sub continental region. Opposed to orthodoxy, this proposal is offered by Dr. Shahiduzzaman from Dhaka University. “India can be better off without this alliance, Bangladesh must liberate itself from the constant perception of India that determines its fate,” he opined. For decades of Bangladesh’s foreign policy conduct has been dictated by India, Bangladesh’s neighbor.
During Sheikh Hasina’s tenure as the Prime minister of Bangladesh the country’s foreign policy was strategically interlinked with New Delhi regime. In trade to defense and military matters, Dhaka’s policy objectives were mostly in parallel with India’s agenda. This was particularly seen in Bangladesh whereby many perceived this as a surrender and a blow to national interests in exchange for a compromise to a neighboring country.
Nevertheless, as Sheikh Hasina goes into exile, a new phase has set in that entails the resurrection of Bangladesh’s strategic calculations and configurations. An erstwhile foe, Pakistan finally stands as a trustworthy ally.
Pakistan, however, despite the bitter experience of 1971, bears no ill feeling. Today, there are no conflicts with borders, waters and seas, as well as no trade wars between the two countries. While India approaches Bangladesh with naked self-interest and while Pakistan has presented itself as a more reliable ally, Pakistan has sought to assume the role of a fraternal power ready and willing to assist in the Bangladeshi people’s regaining of their sovereignty. Establishment of a nuclear treaty would cement this emerging relationship and offer Bangladesh the much desired strategic depth to confront India.
Bangladesh already has possibility of getting the maritime resources and the trade access because it is nearby the Bay of Bengal. Supporting a nuclear capable country like Pakistan will also bring an extra layer of security that the state needs to prevent a larger neighbor from threatening military action. Such discourses have already conditioned and altered the tenor of Bangladesh’s foreign policy – more assertive, more autonomous and more Bangladesh-centric rather than an adjunct to the Indian diplomacy.
Bangladesh new foreign policy indicates a change of the geo-political alignment. The country has already been wooed through the BRI and is still an important factor in the Indo-Pacific. Thus, pursuing nuclear cooperation with Pakistan, Bangladesh has switched from reliance on India and move towards becoming a regional player. In calling for a nuclear treaty, Dr. Zaman, for all his seeming provocativeness, has pointed to a bitter fact that no one can deny the hold that India has had on Bangladesh for decades. It has been over 15 years Dhaka has directly come under. New Delhi’s political interference goes beyond being a neighboring country; it single-handedly dictated major policies of Bangladesh. The nuclear treaty proposal is not just a measure of defense and security of Bangladesh; instead, it is a way of Bangladesh stating its independence and its determination to not to bow down to the dominance of India.
From a strategic perspective this is not only a practical change that needs to occur but rational one as well. Bangladesh could have been a rising power after gaining its independence in 1971 and India is the principal gainer of Bangladesh obedience. This idea of Bangladesh turning into Pakistan’s strategic partner would not only boost the security of the country though this but it would send a message to India: to ensure that days when one country used to unilaterally dominate others cannot recur again.
Islamabad looks at Bangladesh as a natural partner – two countries with large populations and a majority of Muslims; they are not neighbors, but strategic partners. This synergy may shift the dynamics of power within the South Asian region with Bangladesh in a leading role. In this regard, India has always sought to influence Bangladesh’s and to link its foreign policy to that of India, while Pakistan’s objective has never been like that.
The facts, therefore, are clear, why should Bangladesh should allow India to determine its destiny? As a nuclear agreement is in the offing, it can be discerned that Dhaka has no more inclinations to be a subordinate. This treaty would not only serve the purpose of strengthening its defense lineup but it would also provide it with the might to negotiate with India on its own terms.
A nuclear Bangladesh in league with Pakistan would mean that the hegemony which India has enjoyed in South Asia would not continue indefinitely. More to the point, it would enable Bangladesh to engage in the management of its own affairs and maintenance of national sovereignty—that was once denied to it. The message is clear: Dhaka is no longer a passive player in regional geo politics. And it is ready to take its fate in its hands, and Pakistan is all prepared to make it possible. The map no longer defines Bangladesh’s freedom as a geographical territory but as a continuum of the ideology of two nation theory.