What TikTok ban? Advertisers, employees, and creators seem unfazed by its increasingly precarious future
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- A TikTok ban feels closer than ever, as federal judges hear arguments on a US divest-or-ban law.
- But TikTok creators, advertisers, and employees are acting like the sky isn't falling.
- Some doubt the government will follow through on a ban, and many have backup plans if it does.
Much like the orchestra on the Titanic, TikTok users, advertisers, and employees appear to be waiting until the last possible minute to abandon ship despite the threat of a ban in the US.
TikTok is currently challenging the government's divest-or-ban law in the DC Circuit's appeals court, but it's not going well. A former Department of Justice attorney told Business Insider this week that the court seemed poised to rule against TikTok. This would mean that its owner ByteDance would need to sell its US operations to a non-Chinese company or else see it booted from app stores as early as January.
Even with that bleak outlook, TikTok's most important stakeholders are largely acting as if things are normal.
A current TikTok employee, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not permitted to discuss their employer, described the atmosphere at the company as "business as usual." They felt that in a busy news cycle, this week's court arguments weren't driving as much attention internally compared to when the divest-or-ban bill was signed. Managers at TikTok have been pushing their reports to stay focused on business goals rather than worry about broader political threats, The Information earlier reported.
TikTok didn't respond to a request for comment.
TikTok isn't slowing hiring and employees aren't jumping ship
According to its jobs portal, TikTok is still hiring for around 3,000 roles in the US. Tech recruiters told BI they're not seeing any major uptick in applications from TikTok staffers looking to flee a sinking ship, as might have been assumed.
"My sense is that tech workers are optimistic about it not getting banned," said Jovena Natal, founder of Clutch Talent, a recruiting agency that works with tech firms in New York and California.
Daniel Openshaw, managing director of emerging markets at Expand Group, which recruits internationally, described TikTok employees as "pretty relaxed" about the ban situation.
Many TikTok creators appear unconcerned by the prospect of a ban. Some are skeptical a ban will come to pass, as earlier efforts at the state and federal level haven't held up in court. Others are fighting it: In May, a group of eight TikTok creators filed a lawsuit against the US government over the potential ban.
Ultimately a ban may not matter too much for creators that have spent the past few years building audiences on YouTube shorts and Instagram reels. Plus, TikTok could still continue in some form if it ends up being sold to a US company — though that could be disruptive.
"It's not something that worries me as a creator," TikToker Alex Ojeda, who has around 8.5 million followers, told BI of a potential ban. "I already have a big audience on other platforms, so even if it were to, for whatever reason, get banned, I don't worry [about] my career." Newer creators who are more reliant on TikTok for an audience may be more afraid, he said.
Brands are planning to increase TikTok spending in 2025
Even if creators aren't too worried about the impact of a TikTok ban on their businesses, the app's 170 million American users may feel differently. TikTok users turn to the app for more than just entertainment. They're also increasingly using it to shop and discover news. According to the Pew Research Center, around 17% of US adults — and 39% of those aged 18 to 29 — consume news on TikTok, up from 14% in 2023, and 3% in 2020.
TikTok's competitors are poised to capture much of its audience if the app does get kicked out of the US. Business Insider sister company Emarketer has said TikTok's roughly 120 million US users would likely flock to Instagram and YouTube in the event of a ban. Meta could benefit by gaining as much as 22% to 27% of TikTok's projected $12.65 billion in US ad revenue in 2025, up to $2.38 billion, while YouTube could pick up an additional $1.54 billion, Emarketer projected.
Advertisers aren't backing away from TikTok right now, though. Guideline, which measures spending from major advertising holding companies, said ad spending on TikTok grew 73% year-on-year in August. That compares to a growth of 21% for Meta and 10% for Snap over the same period.
The current TikTok staffer told BI that they felt that advertisers were paying less attention to TikTok ban news as they've been busy gearing up for the holiday season.
About seven in 10 marketers surveyed by the research firm Kantar between May and June this year said they planned to increase their investment in TikTok in 2025. Kantar surveyed more than 1,000 senior global marketers.
"Even then, there's still space for TikTok to grow in the hearts of marketers, as it is the most preferred global ad platform among consumers alongside Amazon," said Gonca Bubani, global thought leadership director for media at Kantar.
"However, marketers do not yet trust TikTok as much as their most preferred platforms," she added.