NFL Week 3 picks: Packers making the best out of a Love-less situation
Best Bet
PACKERS at TITANS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Titans by 2.
Total: 38.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 1-1/1-1; Titans 0-2/0-2.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love returned to practice this week, on a limited basis, and could start Sunday against the Titans after missing last week’s game against the Colts with a sprained MCL.
And if not? Matt LaFleur will more than likely figure it out. He did against the Colts, when Malik Willis stepped in and managed a 16-10 victory by not messing up.
The Packers leaned on newcomer Josh Jacobs (32 carries, 151 yards) and their strong running game — 53 carries for 261 yards — and lightened the load for Willis, who didn’t even join the team until Aug. 27 after the Packers traded a seventh-round draft pick to the Titans to get him.
With only a week’s worth of first-team reps, Willis was unspectacular but typically efficient for a quarterback tutored by LaFleur. He completed 12 of 14 passes for 122 yards (8.7 yards per attempt), one touchdown and no interceptions for a 126.8 passer rating. The touchdown was no gimme, either — a well-thrown ball to wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks near the right sideline for a 14-yard scoring play that gave the Packers a 10-0 lead.
Willis’ performance didn’t mute the urgency to get Love back. Eventually, the Packers will run up against a team that can contain their running game and force Willis to do too much. And LaFleur seems to know exactly what Willis is capable of doing less than a month into learning his offense.
There’s an added layer of intrigue into the Packers’ quarterback situation this week, with the possibility of Willis facing his old team. Willis, in fact, was traded one day after throwing two touchdown passes to wide receiver Bryce Oliver — 34 and five yards — in the Titans’ final preseason game.
The Titans were set at quarterback with 2023 second-round pick Will Levis. At least they were at the time of the trade. Levis has had a troubling start to his second season. Against the Bears, he threw a pick-six to Tyrique Stevenson on an ill-advised pass while in the grasp of defensive lineman DeMarcus Walker.
He did it again last week, with an ill-advised lateral that was recovered by the Jets — with television cameras catching coach Brian Callahan’s reaction: “What the [bleep] are you doing?”
Callahan is standing by Levis. The Packers have a decision to make: Love or Willis. Advantage: Packers.
Pick: Packers 24, Titans 17.
Top plays
CHARGERS at STEELERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Steelers by 1½.
Total: 36.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 2-0/2-0;
Steelers 2-0/2-0.
Outlook: Justin Fields (1 TD, 0 INTs, 94.4 rating) is completing 69.8% of his passes in the Steelers’ offense after completing 60.8% with the Bears, but that’s a discussion for another day. Justin Herbert (274 yards) has thrown for just one more yard than Fields (273), but Jim Harbaugh knows he has plenty of high-octane gas in that tank when he needs it.
Pick: Bolts 23, Steelers 17.
GIANTS at BROWNS
Time: Noon.
Line: Browns by 6½.
Total: 38½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 0-2/0-2;
Browns 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: Beleaguered Giants coach Brian Daboll just can’t win. The Giants scored three TDs and did not allow a TD vs. the Commanders and still lost 21-18 — the first time in NFL history that has happened. Browns QB Deshaun Watson is just as beleaguered as Daboll, but he has DE Myles Garrett (two sacks) on his side.
Pick: Browns 23, Giants 10.
BEARS at COLTS
Time: Noon, CBS-2.
Line: Colts by 1.
Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bears 1-1/1-0-1;
Colts 0-2/1-1.
Outlook: We’ve all seen this movie before. After rookie QB Caleb Williams was sacked seven times vs. the Texans, the Bears will run 35+ times against a Colts defense that allowed 261 rushing yards vs. the Packers last week — and is without Pro Bowl DT DeForest Bucker — dominate time of possession and let their defense do the rest.
Pick: Bears 24, Colts 13.
The rest of the games
EAGLES at SAINTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Saints by 2½. Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 1-1/1-1; Saints 2-0/2-0.
Outlook: The Bears passed on Klint Kubiak, but that’s a discussion for another day. The Saints and veteran QB Derek Carr have scored 91 points in Kubiak’s first two games, Eagles on tilt after collapsing vs. the Falcons.
Pick: Saints 30, Eagles 26.
BRONCOS at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Buccaneers by 6½. Total: 40.
Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 0-2/1-1; Buccaneers 2-0/2-0.
Outlook: Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix getting a rough introduction to the NFL — 59.7% completions, 0 TDs, 4 INTs and a 51.0 passer rating. The last four rookie QBs to face Todd Bowles’ defense are 0-4, though Jayden Daniels (91.7 rating) was not bad in Week 1.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Broncos 14.
TEXANS at VIKINGS
Time: Noon.
Line: Texans by 2. Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 2-0/0-1-1; Vikings 2-0/2-0.
Outlook: The Texans sacked Bears rookie Caleb Williams seven times and intercepted him twice — and still needed a defensive stand in the final minute to win 19-13. Kevin O’Connell working wonders with Sam Darnold.
Pick: Vikings 20, Texans 17.
LIONS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 51½.
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 1-1/1-1; Cardinals 1-1/2-0.
Outlook: Lions coach Dan Campbell will have his team primed to respond after a 20-16 home loss to the Buccaneers. But just like the Buccaneers, the Cardinals are an under-the-radar team, with a rejuvenated Kyler Murray, who had a 158.3 rating last week vs. the Rams.
Pick: Cardinals 26, Lions 23 (OT).
PANTHERS at RAIDERS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Raiders by 5. Total: 40.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 0-2/0-2; Raiders 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: The Raiders scored 26 points vs. the Ravens’ defense in Luke Getsy’s second game, but that’s a discussion for another day. Panthers benched QB Bryce Young, but veteran Andy Dalton is an upgrade.
Pick: Raiders 24, Panthers 17.
DOLPHINS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Seahawks by 4½. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 1-1/0-2; Seahawks 2-0/0-1-1.
Outlook: Dolphins’ offense wasn’t very good even with Tua Tagovailoa. Don’t be surprised if Skylar Thompson provides a boost.
Pick: Seahawks 17, Dolphins 14.
RAVENS at COWBOYS
Time: 3:25 p.m., Fox 32.
Line: Ravens by 1. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 0-2/0-2; Cowboys 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: Ravens in early desperation mode at 0-2. That’ll be the difference vs. a Cowboys team coming off a blowout loss to the Saints.
Pick: Ravens 26, Cowboys 24.
49ERS at RAMS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 1-1/1-1; Rams 0-2/0-2.
Outlook: Rams in a tough spot without WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp vs. a 49ers team smarting after a loss to the Vikings.
Pick: 49ers 31, Rams 14.
CHIEFS at FALCONS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Chiefs by 3½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 2-0/1-1; Falcons 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: Both teams turned defeat into victory in the final minute last week — Chiefs at the horn — but one is better than the other.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Falcons 17.
JAGUARS at BILLS
Time: 6:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Line: Bills by 5. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 0-2/1-1; Bills 2-0/1-1.
Outlook: Trevor Lawrence’s downturn (51.0% completions, 82.3 rating) since signing a five-year, $275 million extension is mystifying.
Pick: Bills 26, Jaguars 20.
COMMANDERS at BENGALS
Time: 7:15 p.m., Monday, ABC 7.
Line: Bengals by 8. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 1-1/1-1; Bengals 1-1/1-1.
Outlook: Joe Burrow is on steam after his fumble greased the skids for a loss to Patrick Mahomes, and he will respond accordingly.
Pick: Bengals 31, Commanders 17.