NFL straight-up picks, Week 3: Recovering from a brutal week of upsets with an easy (???) slate

Well, ooooof. There’s nothing quite like starting Week 2 with four straight unanimous picks, then watching our panel fall flat on its face for all of them. The Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys all lost as favorites, with all but the Colts wetting the bed at home. After a chalky Week 1, the NFL snapped back with chaos in Week 2 and made us all look very, very dumb as a result.

Needless to say, we didn’t do very well in a week where underdogs won 50 percent of their matchups. 8-8 was the best our panel did, and after hitting nearly 70 percent of my picks in 2023 I’m currently standing at a heady 53 percent.

So, barely better than a coin flip.

Fortunately, I feel a little bit better about this week’s games than last. The extremely stoppable force of the Las Vegas Raiders’ run game meets the wildly moveable object that is the Carolina Panthers’ defense. The Seattle Seahawks face a Skylar Thompson Miami Dolphins offense at home. The Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys… well, alright, I am genuinely unsure how that will turn out.

Let’s take a look at this week’s schedule and see if there aren’t some other games to stack high on the confidence meter. Despite last week’s … unpleasantness, I had a pretty solid 2023, ending the year as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds — in fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 3 picks:

and:

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) over the Denver Broncos

Why I like this pick:

The Cincinnati Bengals have a great chance to dig out of their 0-2 hole thanks to a visit from the Washington Commanders. However, the specter of “September Burrow Bengals” is unshakable and should remind us all that, in the first month of the season, Cincinnati is untrustable.

Instead, let’s back Tampa Bay at home. Sean Payton is trying hard to establish a run game to buoy Bo Nix, but Javonte Williams’ -47 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) are second-worst in the NFL through two weeks. That suggests the run game issues that stand as the biggest weakness in Todd Bowles’ defense won’t be exploited in Week 3. Baker Mayfield continues to crush it and, well, the quarterback on the other side of the ball is a rookie with four interceptions and zero touchdown passes on his pro resume.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Denver’s defense has given up 268 total passing yards in two games and Tampa Bay doesn’t have the run game to create space downfield (3.4 yards per carry). The Broncos have turned the ball over five times but haven’t been blown out in either of their games so far. The Buccaneers could be due for a trap after a stirring upset win in Detroit.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 1-1 (.500)

Hardest favorite to back: Dallas Cowboys (+1, but they opened at -1) over the Baltimore Ravens

Look, the Cowboys aren’t a favorite, but they are at home and I want to talk about them. So let’s bend the rules here for a minute while I think out loud on a pick I kinda hate.

Why I like this pick:

The Cowboys are at home, where they were undefeated last regular season. The pressure is mounting on Dak Prescott to live up to his contract and now he’s facing a defense that ranks 26th in overall efficiency following the departure of coordinator Mike Macdonald and contributors like Geno Stone and Patrick Queen. Baltimore just gave up a 10-point lead, at home, to Gardner Minshew and the league’s worst rushing attack.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Dallas’ last two home games were both blowout losses in which their defense was crushed into dust. This looks like a get-right game for *someone,* and facing a Cowboys defense that just made Derek Carr the best quarterback in the NFL certainly seems like a point in Lamar Jackson’s favor. I’m relying on a gut pick in a season screaming in my face about how worthless my gut is.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 1-1 (.500)

Upset pick of the week: Los Angeles Chargers (+2) over the Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has its own very good defense, but beat a post-injury/still-rusty Kirk Cousins and Bo Nix to get there. Justin Fields’ average pass has traveled just 6.2 yards downfield as a Steeler. While that’s been great for his accuracy, it’s also the kind of low-impact, compressed offense the Chargers just shut down vs. Carolina.

The Steelers are at home and still coached by Mike Tomlin, a man capable of turning a pile of sea garbage into an oceanside mansion. Folks are feeling optimistic about J.K. Dobbins again, which means the football gods are about to strike him down with a season-ending injury. It feels like a while since George Pickens did something absurd, so we’re probably due.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 0-2 (.000)