Fed rate cuts are arriving too late and layoffs show the US economy is already in a recession, bond king Jeff Gundlach says
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
- The Fed should have cut interest rates a lot sooner, according to Jeff Gundlach.
- The "Bond King" thinks the economy is already in recession, as evidenced by rising layoffs.
- Job cut announcements climbed 193% over the last month, per a report from Challenger.
The Fed is cutting interest rates too late, as mounting job losses show that the US economy is already in a recession, according to Jeff Gundlach.
The billionaire "bond king" and DoubleLine CEO pointed to the Fed's anticipated rate move on Wednesday, with markets expecting central bankers to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at the conclusion of their policy meeting. That will mark the first rate cut the Fed has issued in over four years — a shift to prevent high rates from weighing too heavily on the job market and economic growth.
But the economy has already slowed to recessionary levels, Gundlach said in a conference panel on Tuesday, pointing to concerns surrounding the weakening job market.
"We are in a recession already," Gundlach said at the event, per Bloomberg's report. "I see an awful lot of layoffs announcement."
Hiring has slowed steadily over the past year, even as GDP has continued to grow in recent quarters. Layoff announcements climbed 193% over the last month, according to a report from the consultancy Challenger, Gray, & Christmas. Hiring plans for the year have also fallen to their lowest level on record, down 41% in August compared to last year, the report added.
Still, most experts note that the US economy remains on solid footing. GDP grew 3% last quarter. Unemployment, meanwhile, remains near historic lows, with the jobless rate clocking in at 4.2% in August.
Gundlach, though, said he would give the Fed an "F" grade for its performance over the past several years. Central bankers hiked interest rates 525 basis-points in 2022 and 2023 to lower inflation, but they should have responded to inflationary pressures much sooner, he said, which could have prevented interest rates from being kept too high for too long.
"I think they're going to cut 50 — they seem so out of line," Gundlach said. 'The Fed is way behind the curve and they should get their act together."
Markets will be watching for the Fed's next rate move and Powell's prepared remarks Wednesday afternoon. The Fed chief is expected to deliver guidance on the path of further rate cuts, as well as the outlook for the job market and the economy.