Peter Thiel predicts the 2024 election won't be close: 'One side is simply going to collapse'
Nordin Catic/Getty Images for The Cambridge Union
- Peter Thiel predicted that either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would win the 2024 election handily.
- Thiel, who says he's "very strongly pro-Trump," pointed out that most elections aren't close.
- He was justifying why he hasn't spent money on the 2024 election, despite some pressure to do so.
Peter Thiel, the right-wing tech billionaire who's known for his contrarian views, is making another unusual prediction: The 2024 election won't be close.
During a live appearance at "The All-in Summit" earlier this month, Thiel acknowledged that this year's race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is "basically 50-50," though he believes Trump is favored.
But he also argued that the last two presidential elections may have been historical aberrations in terms of how close they were.
"My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close. You know, most presidential elections aren't," Theil said. "2016 and 2020 were super close, but two-thirds of the elections aren't."
Though he didn't go into detail, Thiel mused that either the "Kamala bubble will burst" or "maybe the Trump voters get really demotivated and don't show up."
"One side is simply going to collapse in the next two months," Thiel added.
It happens to be a self-serving argument for Thiel. After spending money to elect Trump in 2016 and pouring millions of dollars into two key Senate races in 2022 — JD Vance in Ohio and Blake Masters in Arizona — the conservative tech billionaire has stepped back from financial involvement in politics. He's since faced pressure from Vance to "get off the sidelines" this year.
Thiel has argued that political spending has little impact, especially at the presidential level. During the "All In" appearance, he said that's even more true in a landslide election. "If it's not even close, I don't think it makes much of a difference," Thiel said.
"I am still very strongly pro-Trump, pro-JD," Thiel said. "I've decided not to donate any money politically, but I'm supporting them in every other way possible."
He went on to claim that if the election is indeed close, Harris and Democrats will "cheat" via ballot harvesting and election rule changes.
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
When pressed on how he would change US elections, Thiel said he'd prefer to see just one day of voting, "practically no" absentee ballots, and stronger voter ID laws.