Dems bank on boost from Florida's abortion and marijuana ballot measures

Two Florida ballot measures on abortion and recreational marijuana are turning the state's elections upside down, worrying Republicans while giving Democrats hope in this year's presidential battle and in a key Senate race. 

Polls have tightened in the battle between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, and in the Senate race between GOP Sen. Rick Scott and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D). The abortion and marijuana measures could bring more Democratic-leaning voters to the polls.

Florida voters will be able to weigh in on Amendments Three and Four, which would legalize recreational marijuana and enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution, respectively. 

Democrats point out that the issues fired up key parts of the Democratic constituency during the 2022 midterm elections and in Virginia’s off-year elections. 

“It’s clear that those ballot measures are going to have an impact on turnout and enthusiasm, but most importantly they’re also going to be investing aggressively in efforts to mobilize voters, which is a tool we need as Democrats,” said Christian Ulvert, a Florida-based Democratic strategist who served as a senior adviser to President Biden's 2020 campaign in the state.

Republican strategists, on the other hand, warn the state has a history of voting for liberal ballot measures and Republican candidates during the same election. For example, in 2020, former President Trump won Florida by just more than 3 points, while the measure to raise the state’s minimum wage passed with 60.82 percent of the vote.

Florida Republicans have seen major victories since 2020 that have helped move the red state further into the conservative column. While Democrats across the country successfully campaigned on tying their Republican opponents to the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, Florida Republicans saw sweeping double-digit victories.

But abortion access has since changed in Florida, impacting the political climate. In 2023, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed the state’s six-week abortion ban into law. One year later, Florida’s Supreme Court approved the ban but also allowed for the ballot measure to go before voters in November.

Harris's and Mucarsel-Powell's campaigns have zeroed in on the issue of abortion in the state. Earlier this month, Harris’s campaign launched her “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Palm Beach, with Mucarsel-Powell in attendance. 

“They’re motivated to vote on abortion,” said Mucarsel-Powell’s communications director Lauren Chou. “It’s not just that Democratic voters or women voters are drawn out because of the abortion issue, it’s mobilizing all across the spectrum, I would say. They’re coming out, and they’re voting for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, somebody who’s going to fight for freedom.” 

Last month, Trump confirmed he would vote no on Amendment Four, after saying the state’s six-week ban was too strict. 

“At the same time, the Democrats are radical because the nine months is just a ridiculous situation,” the former president said. “All of that stuff is unacceptable, so I will be voting no for that reason.”

Florida Republican strategist Ford O’Connell called Trump’s position “most acceptable to Floridians on abortion statewide.” 

Scott has also said he will vote no on Amendment Four. Earlier this year, he said he would support a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions over the six-week ban. 

Other Republicans facing reelection in Florida have been less clear about how they will vote on the amendment. In a Thursday interview with Politico, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said her opinion on the measure “doesn’t matter” and that questions of policy should not be placed on the ballot. 

While Republicans like Luna are facing attack from Democrats on abortion, DeSantis is urging Republicans to publicly voice their support for the amendment. 

"It’s important that all of our political leaders, you know, stand up and be counted. Right now. You know, there’s some people that just, it’s like the political winds. Like if the winds are against you, you run and hide. That’s not leadership, that is not what’s going to make this state great,” DeSantis said on Sept. 7, speaking at a Florida GOP fundraising dinner. 

Republicans are less united in their support for Amendment Three. Trump confirmed last week that he would vote for the measure to legalize recreational marijuana. The announcement led to swift pushback from the Harris campaign, which accused Trump of “blatant pandering.”

However, Scott and DeSantis have come out against the measure. Scott referenced his brother’s lifelong struggle with substance abuse in his decision. 

Republicans say there is a strategy behind Trump and Scott’s stances on the marijuana amendment when it comes to appealing to certain age demographics. 

“[Trump] understands that that plays better with voters under 40,” O’Connell said. 

A Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research poll released last month showed an age gap in support for the amendment, with 69 percent of 18- to 49-year-olds saying they were in support and only 47 percent of voters over 50 saying the same. 

In Collier County, which includes the Naples-Marco Island metropolitan area, support for the amendment could end up having a significant impact among the region’s large senior population. Earlier this week, the county’s board of commissioners voted 5-0 to formally oppose Amendment Three. Scott, who has a home in Collier County, won the county with 65 percent of the vote in 2018. 

But proponents of Amendment Three are skeptical of the narrative that seniors are less supportive of legalizing marijuana. 

“They were the same people I was worried about with my other amendments,” said Florida attorney and Democratic donor John Morgan, who led two major campaigns to legalize medical marijuana in the state, one of which passed with more than 70 percent support. 

Morgan has been dubbed “Pot Daddy” for his marijuana legalization efforts. 

Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that the efforts behind the ballot measures are technically nonpartisan. 

“Sixty percent is a pretty high threshold to meet,” said Chris Hartline, a senior adviser to Scott’s campaign. 

“The reality is to get 60 percent they need Republicans to vote for them. They don’t want those ballot measures to be tied to Debbie’s campaign or Kamala’s campaign, frankly,” he said.

But Democrats maintain they are building a broad tent with the help of the two issues. 

“Neither of these issues are partisan,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. ”You’re seeing that Democrats, Republicans and Independents are coming together for Amendment Four and the same thing on the cannabis side.” 

Morgan predicted the two measures will not hurt Democrats.

“It can only help,” he said.