Yunus Wants To Change Bangladesh’s Regional Destiny – OpEd

Forty days after Sheikh Hasina Wajed fled from Dhaka, Bangladesh finds itself in a moment of both relief and uncertainty. The aftermath of her government’s brutal crackdown on student-led protests, which reportedly claimed over 1,000 lives, has left a significant mark on the country. The global intellectual community is now focused on understanding the rapid decline of Hasina’s power, the changing political landscape of Bangladesh, and what it signifies for the nation’s future.

For over 15 years, Hasina ruled Bangladesh with an iron fist. Her leadership, marked by the suppression of opposition and the creation of a cult around her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, painted her as a strong but increasingly autocratic figure. While she maintained a firm grip on the country, her sudden ouster has pacified widespread concerns about the erosion of democracy and her attempts to move towards a one-party system under the Awami League.

The Monsoon Revolution

Some commentators have dubbed the student-led protests and Hasina’s subsequent fall as the ‘Monsoon Revolution,’ symbolizing a spontaneous and powerful push for change. Yet, while it is clear that the people’s will has been a decisive force, it remains uncertain whether this change will lead to long-term political stability. The Awami League has suffered a significant blow but will likely attempt a comeback, emphasizing its claim to Bangladesh’s secular heritage. Despite her fall, Hasina’s administration has left deep roots in the nation’s institutions, from the judiciary to the bureaucracy.

Economically, Hasina’s reign saw notable development, especially in infrastructure and industrial growth. However, these gains were not evenly distributed, and many Bangladeshis felt the sting of rising inequality, unemployment, and inflation. Although the GDP grew, the benefits were disproportionately concentrated, leaving large sections of the population disillusioned and hungry for change.

India’s Dilemma and Foreign Policy Repercussions

One of the more significant shifts in the post-Hasina era is Bangladesh’s foreign policy stance. Throughout her tenure, Hasina cultivated close ties with India, much to the discomfort of freedom-loving Bangladeshis who felt India’s influence was suffocating. Her willingness to comply with Indian interests, particularly in matters of border security, trade, and regional politics, often frustrated nationalist sentiments in Bangladesh.

Now, India finds itself in a complex position. Hasina’s presence in India creates a diplomatic conundrum. With over 90 criminal cases against her in Bangladesh, many voices in Dhaka are calling for her extradition under the 2013 treaty between the two countries. However, India’s handling of this delicate situation will be crucial, as any attempt to shelter Hasina could further strain relations with Bangladesh’s new government.

Meanwhile, India is working hard to shape the narrative surrounding the transition. Indian media and researchers have already begun to paint a picture of potential instability, claiming that the new wave of leadership may lead to a rise in Muslim fundamentalism and increased targeting of Hindus in Bangladesh. These claims, however, have been widely dismissed as speculative, with the BBC reporting most such incidents as unverified rumors. Ironically, India itself faces rising religious persecution, undermining its position as a moral critic of Bangladesh’s internal affairs.

Muhammad Yunus and the Interim Government

The man now at the helm of the interim government, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, faces significant challenges as he attempts to guide Bangladesh through this turbulent period. Yunus has quickly set up a task force titled ‘Re-strategising the Economy and Mobilising Resources for Equitable and Sustainable Development’ to address the country’s pressing economic concerns. Bangladesh’s critical garment industry, which has long been a driver of the economy, suffered substantial losses during the protests, making recovery all the more urgent.

Politically, Yunus’ administration must navigate a highly charged environment. The student leadership, which was instrumental in bringing about Hasina’s downfall, is demanding significant reforms, particularly in the judiciary, police, and election commission. Elections, initially scheduled to take place soon, are now likely to be delayed as these structural changes are discussed and implemented.

Yunus has also highlighted the need for a revival of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), first established in Dhaka in 1985, signaling Bangladesh’s intent to reclaim a central role in regional diplomacy. Furthermore, Yunus has expressed aspirations for Bangladesh to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), potentially serving as a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Conclusion

As Bangladesh enters this new phase of its political history, the road ahead remains uncertain. Sheikh Hasina’s ouster marks a pivotal moment for the country, but the question of whether the change will bring long-term stability is still unresolved. Muhammad Yunus and the interim government have their work cut out for them as they strive to heal the nation’s wounds and rebuild the economy. For regional players like India and Pakistan, this is a time to recalibrate their approaches to Dhaka, with the potential for both challenges and new opportunities on the horizon.