Emmys 2024 predictions: Who will win vs. who should win?

This year’s Emmy Awards ceremony pits 17th-century Japanese politics against modern-day family dynamics, the drama of the British monarchy, and murders in both a New York apartment building and a freezing Alaskan town.

The 76th Primetime Emmys, airing live at 8 p.m. Sunday on ABC, celebrates the outstanding shows and miniseries that aired from June 1, 2023 to May 31, 2024.

The FX network leads the nominations with “Shōgun” and “The Bear” earning a whopping 25 and 23 nods, respectively.

But it’s not just about who’s expected to win, but also who should win. Below are the predictions for the night’s biggest awards.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Will win: Toss-up — “Abbott Elementary,” “Curb Your Enthusiasm” or “The Bear”

“Abbott Elementary” and “Curb Your Enthusiasm” have the added benefit of being genuine comedies, while many argue that “The Bear” — with its tense atmosphere and themes of suicide and depression — is far better suited for the drama categories.

But despite the restaurant-set show running away with many comedy wins at last year’s awards, and being expected to do so again, “Curb” could take the gold given that its most recent season was its last.

Should win: “Abbott Elementary” or “Curb”

The third season of “Abbott Elementary” boasts a perfect 100% critics approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. And while the final season of “Curb” doesn’t reach the same heights as earlier years, Larry David remains in top form. The finale — much like the “Seinfeld” one it alludes to — might strain credulity but largely sticks the landing.

Lead Actor (Comedy)

Will win: Jeremy Allen White

What “The Bear” lacks in laughs it makes up for in White’s sophomore season range as Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto — a pinch of spice, a dash of vulnerability, and voila. White took home the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy last year, and could very likely do it again.

Should win: Jeremy Allen White or Larry David

While White indeed deserves the win, so does Larry David. At 77 years young, the comedian remains a master of improv and subverting audiences’ comfort, while still getting the laugh as an exaggerated version his surly self.

Lead Actress (Comedy)

Will win: Quinta Brunson or Jean Smart

Brunson, the 34-year-old star and creator of “Abbott Elementary,” remains pitch-perfect as second-grade teacher Janine Teagues in the ABC hit. But Jean Smart, at 73 years old, is getting her long-awaited due as stand-up diva Deborah Vance in “Hacks.” The role has twice earned her the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy.

Should win: Quinta Brunson or Jean Smart

Outstanding Drama Series

Will win: “Shōgun” or “The Crown”

The freshman season of “Shōgun” has a 99% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes and has been nominated more than any other series this year. The epic that was originally billed as a limited series, but went over so well it was renewed for two more seasons.

Though “The Crown” has somewhat fallen out of favor since its 2016 premiere, it’s the Netflix saga’s last opportunity to win, which could prove to be the clincher.

Should win: “Shōgun”

Lead Actor (Drama)

Will win: Gary Oldman or Hiroyuki Sanada

Oldman and Sanada are both masters of their craft and are at the heights of their power in “Slow Horses” and “Shōgun” respectively.

Should win: Hiroyuki Sanada

Lead Actress (Drama)

Will win: Imelda Staunton

With the reign of Queen Elizabeth II having come to an end with the final season of “The Crown,” it’s a healthy bet that Staunton will take home the gold this go-round.

Should win: Anna Sawai

Sawai’s performance in “Shōgun” has enticed viewers and critics, in part for its effectiveness through her reservedness. She could and likely should take home the award.

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Will win: “Baby Reindeer”

Richard Gadd’s semi-autobiographical black comedy deals in the gray and dominated the zeitgeist long after it dropped out of the Netflix Top 10. There’s almost no way it won’t win.

Should win: “Ripley”

Another Netflix hit, this Andrew Scott-led take is the first TV adaptation of Patricia Highsmith’s novel “The Talented Mr. Ripley” — and a widely lauded one at that.

Lead Actor (Limited Series/Anthology)

Will win: Andrew Scott

The acclaimed actor has long been praised for his range of performances, from villainous Moriarty in “Sherlock” to the sexily pious Hot Priest in “Fleabag.” Still, he’s rarely awarded for his talents, but “Ripley” could finally be his time.

Should win: Andrew Scott

Lead Actress (Limited Series/Anthology)

Will win: Jodie Foster

Foster’s portrayal of a prickly yet protective police officer in the latest installment of “True Detective” is just as dynamic as any of her past efforts, proving she hasn’t skipped a beat over her lengthy career.

Should win: Juno Temple

Temple’s work in the most recent volume of “Fargo” has been somewhat overlooked in the run-up to the Emmys, but her physical and completely captivating performance is deserving of recognition. Should she win, it would be the first time “Fargo” has won an acting award, despite many of its stars being nominated.