JD Vance Could Get Dumped by Donald Trump. He Needs to Listen to Nixon
The 39-year-old Republican vice-presidential nominee was reeling. After a heady beginning, he was suddenly mired in national controversy as the press corps targeted him for destruction. There was increasing talk about dumping him from the ticket and replacing him with a more mainstream candidate. Only at the last minute was he able to give a speech on television that rescued his political fortunes.
This was the plight of Richard M. Nixon in September 1952—and it could serve as a model for J.D. Vance as Donald Trump ponders throwing him overboard and House Republicans refer to him as “the worst choice.” Like Nixon, Vance was brought on to bolster the enthusiasm of the Republican base. Like Nixon, Vance is 39-years-old. And like Nixon, he will need to deliver a ”Checkers” speech that addresses his imprudent comments about marriage and children.
In 1952 Nixon got into hot water when the New York Post alleged that Nixon had a secret slush fund that was backed by a “millionaire’s club” of his California supporters who ensured that it was “devoted exclusively to the financial comfort of Sen. Nixon.” The fund was in fact not illegal—the Democratic candidate for president Adlai Stevenson had a similar one--but the press corps went into a frenzy. Numerous newspapers called for Nixon to exit the race. Eisenhower, whose campaign had emphasized that he would clean Washington’s Augean stables of corruption and influence peddling, was on the defensive. As Eisenhower prepared to drop Nixon and tap William Knowland, the senior senator from California, his running mate chose the bold expedient of addressing the accusations in a nationwide address in Los Angeles in an empty El Capitan Theatre. The pressure was on--and Nixon delivered.
Early on he alluded to his humble origins, stating that he had only used the fund for campaign expenses and declared that his wife “Pat doesn’t have a mink coat. But she does have a respectable Republican cloth coat.” It was Nixon’s first alignment of himself with the silent majority. He went on to declare that one supporter had sent him a cocker spaniel named Checkers and that “regardless of what they say about it, we’re gonna keep it.” Once the talk ended, an emotionally spent Nixon broke down sobbing.
As he watched the speech, Eisenhower, who was nauseated by the lachrymose tone of the talk, realized that Nixon had outflanked him. It would no longer be possible to dispatch Nixon from the ticket. According to the historian W. Joseph Campbell, “Americans responded by the tens of thousands, expressing support for Nixon. Members of the Republican National Committee voted without objection to keep him on the ticket.”
Vance needs to pull a similar coup de theatre or risk toppling into the political abyss. Right now, he is mired in controversies about his previous remarks that women should stay in abusive relationships, that abortions should be outlawed nationally and that women who fail to give birth are tantamount to “childless cat ladies.” These are anything but terms of endearment. There needs to be a new Vance, just as there was a new Nixon. Put otherwise, Vance needs to deliver an emotional talk about his family, underscoring his devotion to his wife Usha and daughter Mirabel. Perhaps he can even invoke a cuddly family pet that was recently sent to him by an enthusiastic supporter.
As he contemplates his political future, Vance would do well to recall Nixon’s observation that “the greatness comes not when things always go good for you.” Just as Nixon outmaneuvered Eisenhower, so Vance can outflank a restless Trump. But he must do it quickly. Otherwise, when it comes to remaining on the Trump team, Vance may discover that it is only a question of how many Scaramuccis he lasts.
About the Author:
Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel. In 2008, his book They Knew They Were Right: the Rise of the Neocons was published by Doubleday. It was named one of the one hundred notable books of the year by The New York Times. He is the author of America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators.
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