UFC 304 Gambling Preview: Will Leon Edwards and Tom Aspinall defend home field and titles in Manchester?

UFC 304 takes place this weekend back across the pond as the world’s leading MMA promotion returns to Manchester, England for the first time since 2016. In the main event, welterweight champion Leon Edwards puts his belt on the line against former for Belal Muhammad, while the co-main event features another rematch, this time between interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. On top of that, there are a plethora of other quality matchups, so let’s get to the breakdowns.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Bobby Green (-120)

Though his name is now officially King Green, he’s still “Bobby Green” on DraftKings so we’ll go with that for the sake of clarity.

Here’s the thing: Paddy Pimblett is not a bad fighter, but he’s not quite a good fighter either. Pimblett’s striking and cardio are both works in progress but he’s gotten away with that by being a good grappler with a good chin, and not fighting the best guys. By those metrics, Green is a massive leap for Pimblett.

Green is a solid wrestler, very good defensive grappler, and a much better striker than Pimblett. In the past four years, the only times Green has lost has been to top-shelf competition who either knocked him out or were Islam Makhachev. Pimblett is not likely to knock out Green and I doubt he’ll be able to consistently get takedowns and hold position, so King Green should have a good night in England.

Gregory Rodrigues (+114)

Rodrigues takes on Christian Leroy Duncan in a main card middleweight matchup that promises to be a banger. “Robocop” is guaranteed action every time out and “CLD” has been equally as fun, but there’s one small issue: Rodrigues doesn’t have to brawl if he doesn’t want to. Robocop is also an accomplished jiu-jitsu player, and while he often is happy to slug it out on the feet, Rodrigues has also been willing to show off his ground skills when necessary. It’s necessary on Saturday night and I think he’ll do just that.

Prop Bets

Leon Edwards To Win by Decision (+100)

There’s a full breakdown of this matchup over on SBNation.com, but the bullet points are this: Edwards is bigger, younger, faster, and better in just about every facet of MMA. Don’t get me wrong, Muhammad is a very good fighter, but his particular brand of pressure-wrestle/boxing is poorly suited against Edwards, who excels at slowing fights down and preventing wrestling from even taking place.

On the feet, Edwards has more speed and power, and a more diverse set of tools, and that’s where the bulk of this fight will be contested. That being said, Edwards is not much of a finisher (12 of 16 UFC bouts have gone to decision, not including the no contest) and Muhammad has only ever been finished once. Expect a classic Edwards decision win.

Quick Same Game Parlay - Tom Aspinall To Win by KO/TKO/DQ + Under 4.5 Rounds (-150)

I’ve never used the DraftKings Same Game Parlay option but figured now is as good a time as any, because though I think Curtis Blaydes is being a bit underrated writ large, I do ultimately think Aspinall is a generational kind of fighter.

For years Blaydes was the guy I thought would put things all together and ascend to championship level status, and while he has steadily improved, the truth is his chin is too large of a liability to overcome at heavyweight. Don’t get me wrong, Blaydes isn’t made of paper mache, but he just doesn’t have the sort of iron-clad chin you need at heavyweight to take the belt.

I suspect Blaydes will have some success in this fight as he’s very good, but Aspinall is too fast and hits hard enough to put Blaydes in serious trouble.

Curtis Blaydes Over 0.5 Takedowns (+110)

All the above being said, I do think Blaydes gives a better account of himself than most expect. To whit, this is Curtis Blaydes we’re talking about and the over/under on takedowns is 0.5? Come on, man!

Blaydes is BY FAR the UFC heavyweight leader in takedowns (62) and has a 53.5 percent success rate on takedowns! He’s basically taken down every single opponent he has tried to do so against, and while Aspinall is a terrific athlete, I believe Blaydes can get at least one on him.

Parlay of the Week

Arnold Allen (-218)

Here’s a list of Allen’s losses in the past decade: A competitive fight with Max Holloway, and a razor thin fight with undefeated Movsar Evloev. That’s it.

Giga Chikadze had a moment a few years back, but he was never able to capitalize on it and now Allen should end it entirely. Allen’s well-roundedness and fight I.Q. should serve him well to take away Chikadze’s best weapons and break the Brit’s current losing streak.

Molly McCann (-345)

Should anyone be betting McCann at this price? Probably not, even if Bruna Brasil isn’t exactly a world-beater. But the Manchester crowd is going to go bonkers for McCann when she walks out and this is more about the vibes of supporting two of England’s favorite children on Saturday.

Parlay these two bets together for -114 odds.

Wrap Up

Terrible week last weekend. That’ll teach me to go chasing after bad cards. We don’t have that problem this Saturday though, as UFC 304 is excellent from top to bottom (mostly). Let’s hope we cash some tickets.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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