Cubs series preview: Away from the Friendly Confines
The Cubbies haven’t been in contention as hoped.
The Cubs got off to a solid 24-17 start, but had a terrible May and June, losing 20 of 29 at one point. They have been better in July, but are coming off losing back-to-back home series against the Diamondbacks and Brewers.
Chicago Cubs (49-55) vs. Kansas City Royals (56-47) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Cubs: 4.08 runs scored/game (24th in MLB), 4.17 runs allowed/game (11th)
Royals: 4.63 runs scored/game (12th), 3.91 runs allowed/game (5th)
The Cubs are 22-30 on the road, but 15-8 against American League clubs. They are just 34-41 against teams with a .500 record or better.
Cubs hitters have the fifth-highest walk rate, but the sixth-lowest batting average. Only five teams have hit fewer home runs than the Cubs - and they’ve actually hit slightly more home runs on the road, away from the “Friendly Confines.” The Cubs have stolen 84 bases with the fifth-best success rate, but they have made the second-most outs on the basepaths overall.
Ian Happ is hitting .275/.379/.625 with 7 home runs in his last 24 games and he has the eighth-highest walk rate in baseball overall. Rookie Michael Busch has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 31.4 percent. Nico Hoerner has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate at 10.5 percent. Mike Tauchman is just 2-for-20 since returning from the Injured List where he was sidelined with a groin injury. Cody Bellinger has been out since July 10 with a fractured finger, but could return this weekend.
Kyle Hendricks was demoted to the bullpen in late May, but returned to the rotation in mid-June. He has pitched a bit better lately, giving up three runs in 12 innings over his last two starts. He throws a change up more than any other starter, throwing it 38 percent of the time. He also throws a sinker that opponents are hitting .358 off of, but his out pitch is a curveball with a 36 percent whiff rate. Hendricks has a 45.6 percent groundball rate.
Shota Imanaga has the 12th-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio among starters. He gave up ten runs in less than four innings on June 21 against the Mets, but has a 2.52 ERA in four starts since then. He has a better ERA on the road at 2.51, but a slgihtly worse OPS than at home at .640. He throws a 91 mph fastball with a splitter, sweeper, and curve.
Javier Assad missed a month with a forearm injury and has been on a strict pitch count, failing to go as many as four innings in either of his two starts since returning. He walked six of the 17 batters he faced last time out, but gave up just one hit and no runs. Assad has the eighth-highest walk rate among starters. He primarily throws a sinker, with a cutter, four-seamer, curve, and slider.
The Cubs bullpen has a 3.81 ERA, 14th-lowest in baseball, with the sixth-highest strikeout rate, but the sixth-highest walk rate. Héctor Neris has converted 14-of-18 save opportunities despite the third-highest walk rate among relievers. Mark Leiter Jr. has struck out over a third of all batters he has faced with the best splitter in baseball and has yet to give up a run in six outings since coming off the Injured List. Former Royals reliever Jorge López has given up just one run in 9 2⁄3 innings since joining the Cubs after getting released by the Mets following an incident where he tossed his glove in the stands.
It has been a disappointing season for the Cubs, but they still have some talented players that could make things tough for the Royals. There will likely be a lot of Cubs fans at the K, making it harder to have home field advantage. The Royals have a shot to clinch a winning homestand, but they need a good weekend heading into the trade deadline.