Former MLB GM predicts Phillies will land one of 3 star center fielders
Take this for what it’s worth.
Former Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals general manager Jim Bowden predicted on his MLB Network Radio Show Sunday (H/T to Phillies Tailgate on X, a must-follow) that the Philadelphia Phillies are going to come away with one of a trio of big-name center fielders before the July 30 trade deadline.
“I guess my take is [it’s] very clear in what [general manager] Sam Fuld and [president of baseball operations] Dave Dombrowski of the Phillies are trying to do,” Bowden said. “They’re trying to fix center field. And they’ve made it the priority. They feel like they have enough starting pitching and they have enough bullpen. They feel like their lineup is good. But they really wanna figure out center field.
“And so, Luis Robert of the [Chicago] White Sox, Jazz Chisholm of the Miami Marlins and Cody Bellinger of the [Chicago] Cubs have been their top priority. Now, they know both Robert and Chisholm are available and that both of those teams will trade them. The Cubs have not decided yet if they’re going to buy, sell or hold.
At this point, Robert has been written about ad nauseam in regards to being a target for the Phillies. He is a right-handed hitter that homered 38 times a year ago and in the best-case scenario would be a perfect fit for the Phillies, especially considering he’s signed through 2025 with affordable club options for 2026 and 2027.
However, it’s not difficult to imagine the worst-case scenario with Robert, either. 2023 is the only time Robert has ever played more than 100 games in a season, and he’s not going to sniff 162 this year. Robert missed nearly two months earlier this year with a right hip flexor strain. If you trade for Robert, you’re taking the risk that he gets hurt again and isn’t even in the picture in October.
On Phillies Nation, we examined the possibility of the Phillies trading for Chisholm last weekend when the Marlins were in town. On one hand, he’s a left-handed hitter that would be joining a lineup that already includes Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott. Defensive metrics are also torn on his performance since moving to center field last year, as he has -15 defensive runs saved but four outs above average.
But on the other hand, there’s no question that the current form of Chisholm would be a drastic offensive improvement in center field over Johan Rojas. Plus he’s only 26 years old, so you could reasonably convince yourself that the best is yet to come from a player who can’t become a free agent until after the 2026 season.
Chisholm is, of course, a big personality. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, Chisholm would likely be energized by going from playing his home games at an empty loanDepot Park to the sellout crowds of Citizens Bank Park. It’s just something to consider.
Finally, Bellinger is a former NL MVP that’s particularly difficult to evaluate. He had a nice bounce-back season last year for the Cubs after being non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers. But concerns over his hard-hit data were among the reasons he had to settle in free agency for a three-year/$80 million deal that includes player opt outs after both the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Bellinger has been good, but not great this season, as he’s hitting .270 with nine home runs and a .747 OPS for the Cubbies. He is a left-handed hitter, though, which isn’t as ideal for the Phillies. With that said, he’s graded out well in his career as a center fielder, and previously won a Gold Glove Award in right field. And while first base is occupied by Bryce Harper, it doesn’t hurt to know that Bellinger has played that position at a high level in the past as well.
But beyond Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer being unsure about how to proceed before the trade deadline, any possible suitors will likely have a tough time figuring out what would be a fair return for Bellinger. Not only has his offensive performance fluctuated drastically over the last five years, but you know if he helps you make a deep playoff run, he’ll probably opt out and just be a rental. If not, you could be on the hook for one or two more years at a high price. With Robert and Chisholm, you would be guaranteed to have them at least through 2025.
Interestingly, Bowden goes on to say that the Phillies have made clear to opposing executives that center field is their No. 1 priority, and he believes Dombrowski will get his man, even if it includes giving up infield prospect Aidan Miller.
“The one thing I know about him [Dombrowski] is that when he targets something, he’ll get it. And when he targets it, it’s not gonna be a risk. It’s gonna be the best. When he targets the best, he gets the best. So Dave is gonna get one of those three guys.
“That’s my best guess for the Phillies at the trade deadline, they get one of the three. I don’t know which one, and it’s gonna cost them. Because when they’re done making that deal, they’re gonna end up having to put Aidan Miller in it and they’re gonna have to put in one of their top pitching prospects too. So it’s gonna be a price, but they’re gonna pay it.”
Personally, I would be skeptical that they’ll trade Miller, whom Aram Leighton of Just Baseball has ranked as the No. 57 prospect in the sport less than a year after the Phillies used a first-round pick on him. It almost certainly would take moving Miller to pry Robert away from the White Sox, but that may be a reason to be skeptical about the possibility of that trade coming to fruition.
As for Chisholm and Bellinger, they probably aren’t intriguing enough trade candidates that you would consider moving a prospect like Miller for. If that’s the asking price for either, then perhaps the Phillies will have to pivot to someone like Brent Rooker of the Oakland Athletics, with the plan to play him in left field and have Brandon Marsh play center field primarily.
It is a legitimate question what prospects the Phillies would be willing to trade that would move the needle for other teams. If Andrew Painter and Miller are off the table — and the shine might be off Mick Abel, who has a 6.58 ERA at Triple-A Lehigh Valley — it may very well limit how much of an outfield upgrade the Phillies are able to make.
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