Series Preview: Mets Wrap Up Road Trip in Pittsburgh

The New York Mets (42-43) were in the driver’s seat to win another mid-week set, but two straight losses to the Washington Nationals has slightly stunted their positive momentum. Edwin Díaz’s absence in the bullpen was more apparent than ever and has further brought the team’s biggest weakness to light. While he will return from his suspension this weekend, additions to the bullpen will be a priority if the front office chooses to buy at the deadline.

The Mets will now get their second look at the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45), who have lost six of their last 10. They have an abundance of talent in the pitching department, but an offense that ranks No. 24 in runs per game will need help ahead of the trade deadline if the Pirates want to compete for a playoff spot.

Let’s look at some notes ahead of the four pitching matchups in this one.

Friday, July 5, 2024: RHP Luis Severino (5-2, 3.42 ERA) vs. RHP Paul Skenes (4-0, 2.06 ERA)

Luis Severino had a solid month of June, going 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in five starts. The glaring difference for him over that stretch was his strikeout rate, which went down from 7.1 strikeouts per nine in May to 5.4 in June. Severino managed to push through seven innings last Sunday against the Houston Astros despite allowing four runs on eight hits. Length has not been an issue for the right-hander this season as he has thrown at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts. Severino is 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA against the Pirates in his career.

Paul Skenes may only be 22-years-old, but he is already one of the most electrifying pitchers in the game. The right-hander does not look overmatched at this level, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of his first nine starts. Hitters have been aggressive early and often in Skenes’ recent starts, evidenced by the fact that Yandy Díaz and Jarred Kelenic have hit leadoff home runs against him in back-to-back outings. Watch out for that as Francisco Lindor steps into the box tonight. Skenes is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts at home this season.

Saturday, July 6, 2024: LHP David Peterson (3-0, 3.51 ERA) vs. LHP Bailey Falter (4-6, 3.87 ERA)

David Peterson has impressed since retuning to the big leagues at the end of May, giving up two earned runs in five of six starts this season. The 28-year-old threw 6 1/3 innings against the Nationals on Monday, allowing two runs on seven hits. Peterson has certainly stepped up recently, although he has also been lucky at times. He owns a 5.82 expected ERA, much higher than his current mark of 3.51. Peterson carries an ERA of 3.00 in his career against Pittsburgh.

Bailey Falter is a name the Mets are familiar with going back to his days with the Philadelphia Phillies. The left-hander has been a key figure at the back-end of the Pirates’ rotation, ranking second on the team in starts. While his season-long numbers are strong, his month of June did not go well as he pitched to a 5.63 ERA and a 1.667 WHIP in 24 innings. The 27-year-old allowed a season-high four walks in five innings on Sunday against the Atlanta Braves, yet he was still able to pick up the win. He is 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA across five career games against the Mets.

Sunday, July 7, 2024:  LHP Sean Manaea (5-3, 3.67 ERA) vs. TBD

Sean Manaea had arguably his best start of the season last time out against Washington. He threw a season-high seven innings in the Mets’ 7-2 win on Tuesday as he was able to be effective and efficient while avoiding long innings for most of the night. He gave up just one earned run on five hits while striking out five. Manaea will hope to continue his strong pitching against the Pirates, a team he has yet to beat in four career appearances (two starts).

Jared Jones was lined up to make a start during this series, but he was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right lat strain on Thursday. The likeliest option to fill in for the young right-hander is Luis Ortiz. 20 of his 45 career appearances in the big leagues have come as a starter, although he has made just one this season. That outing came on June 26 against the Cincinnati Reds as he surrendered one run on four hits while striking out seven in six innings. Ortiz is 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in 11 appearances (25 2/3 innings) at home this season.

Monday, July 8, 2024: RHP Christian Scott (0-2, 4.32 ERA) vs. RHP Mitch Keller (9-5, 3.48 ERA)

Christian Scott returned to the big leagues with an impressive performance, at least until he made a critical mistake. He was one out away from completing six strong innings against the Nationals on Wednesday when manager Carlos Mendoza left him in to face Luis García Jr. with runners on the corners. The right-hander hung a sweeper over the middle of the plate that the second baseman crushed over the wall in right field, cutting the Mets’ lead to 5-4 en route to a 7-5 loss. Scott would ultimately end up with a no-decision on his ledger, allowing four runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings. In three career road starts, he is now 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA. Scott will be hoping for a better outing as he continues to search for the first win of his career.

Mitch Keller may not get as much attention as Skenes or Jones, but he has been a key member of the Pirates’ rotation for a number of years now. The right-hander is already up to 103 1/3 innings after throwing a career-high 194 1/3 innings last season. Keller did not have a good start to the year, finishing the month of April with a 5.18 ERA. Since then, however, he is 7-2 with an outstanding 2.42 ERA in 10 starts. The Mets will certainly have their hands full with Keller, as he is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in three career starts against them.

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