‘Jamaica didn’t know they were going to have such a direct hit’: Woman shares why you shouldn’t trust local news weather forecasts
If you've never heard of the ICON weather model, there's a chance you're not getting the most accurate weather predictions. A recent TikTok video details how the European and American weather systems differ and some reasons to add the European model into your forecast projections.
GFS stands for Global Forecast System and is the main U.S. weather system while Europeans tend to use the ECMWF and ICON models. According to a Wind.App article, "in general the most important variables of the ICON are air density and virtual potential temperature, horizontal and vertical wind speed, humidity, cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow." The ICON model is currently in competition with the ECMWF and GFS models. TikTok user Jpall20 (@jpall20) tells viewers how they recently learned about these different weather systems and claims the ICON is way more accurate than the GFS.
Is the American forecast model inferior to the European?
"While the GFS is saying that hurricane Beryl will hit Corpus Christi or around [it] as a category 1, ICON model is showing that it's going to be hitting the Houston area as maybe a category 4...The GFS model is often wrong. The ICON model has been known to be more accurate, yet the United States continues to use the GFS," says Jpall20. They then proceed to mention that Jamaica is currently experiencing a bigger hit from the hurricane than anticipated due to GFS's predictions but that allegedly the ICON model always showed they were in for major impact.
The video has 583,400 views and 1,569 comments at the publishing time of this article.
Many viewers in the comments are in agreement with Jpall20 about the European ICON weather mdoel.
"im an emergency management student, i was told the european model is the best/ most accurate," says one comment.
"I always watched the European models when I was in Texas. More storm accurate," says another.
"meteorologist here... I appreciate your intentions, but the national weather service takes into account all models when making their forecast," interestingly mentions another comment.
@jpall20 PLEASE use the app I showed you. It is far more accurate than the news. #hurricaneseason #hurricanes #hurricaneberyl #beryl #jamaica #supremecourt #immunity #democrats #live #tiktoklive #traffickingawarenes ♬ original sound - Jpall20
Per a Washington Post article about the GFS compared to the ECMWF, this meteorologist is correct. "Skilled meteorologists review the forecasts of both models, along with others, understand their strengths and weaknesses, and understand in what circumstances to place more or less weight on a specific prediction," states the article.
While it seems that meteorologist do take into account diverse weather models outside of just the GFS, Jpall20 recommends downloading an app to stay up to date yourself on what different models are predicting. The Daily Dot has reached out to Jpall20 for comment via TikTok comment and message.
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