Keir set to be Britain’s next Prime Minister with landslide 170-seat majority over Rishi, exit poll predicts
SIR Keir Starmer is set to become Britain’s next Prime Minister after thumping Rishi Sunak to one of the biggest landslides in modern times.
The exit poll projects the Labour leader to thunder into Downing Street with a 170-seat majority – eclipsing Tony Blair’s 1997 rout.
Labour are on course to win 410 seats – up 209 since their defeat under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.
Mr Sunak’s Conservatives are set to plunge to just 131 MPs in a cull of 241 of the constituencies they won five years ago.
The Lib Dems are forecast to increase their haul to 61, while Nigel Farage’s Reform are on course for 13 seats.
It puts an end to 14 years of Tory rule after Mr Sunak’s early election gamble failed to revive the party’s flagging fortunes.
Barring a spectacular overnight upset, the PM will formally resign to King Charles on Friday morning before Sir Keir is asked by the monarch to form the next government.
He will then appoint his Cabinet before finalising a blizzard of new laws to be announced to Parliament on July 17.
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Labour’s expected victory is a significant turnaround from five years ago when the party crashed to its worst defeat since 1935 under Mr Corbyn.
However polls have shown Sir Keir’s own personal appeal will be among the lowest of any incoming premier.
Deputy leader Angela Rayner said tonight: “The numbers are encouraging. but of course, the exit poll is a poll so we haven’t had any results yet.
“I think Keir Starmer has done a tremendous job of transforming the Labour Party and putting forward a program for government.”
And Labour veteran Lord Peter Mandelson hailed the results as a “political meteor”.
The final results are likely to show a collapse in Tory support in both the Red Wall seats won by Boris Johnson in 2019, as well as their traditional heartlands in the south.
Exit polls: Everything you need to know
THE exit poll gives Brits a sniff of the election result just minutes after voting ends.
Interviewers at 133 polling stations across the country ask voters to fill in a replica ballot paper and put it in a ballot box as they leave.
The pollsters choose a mix of constituencies which best reflect national trends, many of which are marginal seats.
Data collected at polling stations is sent in a secure pipeline to a secret location in London where boffins crunch the numbers.
Their phones are taken away and the room is protected by security guards.
It has usually been on the money in recent years – except in 2015, when it predicted a hung parliament only for David Cameron to win a majority.
Number-crunchers also got the result wrong in the 2016 Brexit referendum, when the exit poll suggested Remain had won.
The faulty poll even prompted Brexiteer Nigel Farage to concede defeat on Twitter – before rejoicing at the Leave victory in the morning.
Expert Javier Sajuria told Channel 4: “As polls go, it is probably one of the most reliable.
“Even in 2015, when the polling industry suffered a lot of criticism for their failures to anticipate a Tory majority, the exit poll outperformed everyone else.
“In general, I would say that the UK exit polls have been largely successful, and much better than in other countries.”
Veteran BBC presenter David Dimbleby has revealed the exit poll to the nation following 11 different elections from 1979 to 2019.
Dimbleby said revealing the winner of the election can be a “heart-stopping moment”.
But he caused a stir this week by saying the exit poll is “the worst invention ever”.
Dimbleby told the BBC’s Newscast podcast: “The exit poll is the bane of the broadcaster’s life.
“It’s the worst invention ever brought in – it’s like a thriller and you’re given the answer before we’ve even started on page one.
“The exit poll seems to me entirely detrimental to the excitement of election night.
“It gives people something to talk about until three in the morning when the first serious results flow starts.
“But I never liked them. It takes the fun away.”
Mr Sunak has been under further pressure from Mr Farage’s Reform party and Sir Ed Davey’s resurgent Lib Dems.
Mr Sunak’s failure to neutralise Mr Farage’s insurgents will kickstart Conservative bloodletting between moderates and right-wingers.
Grassroots darling Kemi Badenoch is currently the bookies’ favourite to succeed him.
Cabinet Ministers Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt are all expected to lose their seats.
The Tories have been heavily criticised for running one of the most disastrous campaigns in the party’s history.
While winning a fifth election in a row is unprecedented, recriminations were last night underway in Tory high command over the misery of the past six weeks.
It included a string of unforced errors including returning early from the D-Day commemorations and the betting scandal.
It added to wider structural problems like funds drying up as donors closed their chequebooks.
And candidates were furious that various Cabinet Ministers had effectively conceded defeat on the airwaves ahead of Polling Day because it dispirited their activists.
Mr Sunak did manage to land some blows on tax and immigration during a series of campaign debates.
Sir Keir has run a cautious campaign and unveiled a manifesto of “no surprises” that pledged not to raise the headline rates of national insurance, income tax or VAT.
Mr Sunak spent the majority of his time visiting seats with sizeable Conservative majorities, where even there he took a pummelling on the NHS, immigration and MP sleaze scandals blighting his clean personal image.
Key Election Night Timings
So, what happens on Election Night? Here's our guide on when to expect the key results.
22:00 – Voting closes and the exit poll is released, giving the first indication of the election result
23:30 – First expected declaration in Blyth and Ashington, which are expected to be held by Labour
03:30 – Result expected in Godalming and Ash, Jeremy Hunt’s seat, which is on a knife-edge and could swing to the Lib Dems
03:45 – Half of all election results will have been declared
04:00 – Results expected in Richmond and Northallerton, Rishi Sunak’s seat, and Clacton, where Nigel Farage is standing for Reform UK
04:15 – Result expected in Holborn and St Pancras, Sir Keir Starmer’s seat. Labour chief will make first remarks on election results
06:30 – Final declarations to be made and full election results become apparent
He is almost certain to resign as Tory leader one year and nine months on from succeeding Liz Truss.
But the outgoing PM may not resign immediately and could choose to stay put until party members pick his successor.
Alternatively, a “caretaker” such as Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, could temporarily take charge.
The Tory leadership contest could be immediate or delayed until later in the year, giving party elders time to reflect and consider next best moves.
But even as the election campaign was in full swing, Tory leadership hopefuls were secretly canvassing support.
The contest could get brutal as the moderate and hard right Tory tribes fight for the soul of the party.
Business Secretary Ms Badenoch is the 4/1 frontrunner and expected to run on an anti-woke platform having led the campaign against trans infringement on women’s rights.
Ex Home Secretary Suella Braverman and Priti Patel as former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick would offer hardline stances on borders.
Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick have both said they are prepared to haul Britain out of the European Court of Human Rights – a touchstone issue for Tory MPs.
One Nation Tories are desperate to battle from the centre, while from the right a core group of MPs want to take the fight to Mr Farage and Reform.
Previous elections: How the Tories gained and held power
By JACK ELSOM, Chief Political Correspondent
2019 – the Brexit election
BORIS Johnson called the 2019 general election to break the Commons deadlock over Brexit.
A coalition of Opposition parties and Tory Remainers were blocking his deal from passing and had effectively put the country in limbo.
After purging the Conservatives rebels – and battling Jeremy Corbyn to actually let him trigger the election – the date was set for December 12.
The winter campaign saw Johnson adopt an effective Get Brexit Done slogan while Labour struggled to explain their policy of holding a second referendum.
The result saw the collapse of Labour’s Red Wall fortress of northern seats who switched to back the Tories and helped them win an 80-seat landslide majority.
CON: 365/43.6% LAB: 202/32.1%
2017 – May fluffs it
THERESA May was riding high in the polls in the spring of 2017 when she decided on a walking weekend in Wales to call a snap election.
While commanding a slim majority, she wanted her own mandate having inherited No10 from David Cameron after a Tory coronation contest.
But the wheels quickly fell off her presidential-style campaign, resulting in a disastrous press conference where she infamously insisted “nothing has changed!” as her social care policy was ripped to shreds.
It cost her the Tory majority as Jeremy Corbyn performed better than expected, and May was forced to do a confidence and supply deal with the DUP.
CON: 317/42.3% LAB: 262/40%
2015 – Cameron wins majority
DAVID Cameron let his Tory-Lib Dem coalition reach its full five years, resulting in a long 2015 campaign.
He successfully turned on his own deputy PM Nick Clegg – blaming them for all the faults of their government and asking voters to help him cut them loose.
It was an effective strategy that saw him clinch a small Tory majority, the first since 1992.
CON: 330/36.1% LAB: 258/29%
2010 – Cameron falls short
AFTER 13 years of New Labour, Gordon Brown was ousted as Prime Minister – but the Tories fell short of an outright majority.
Brown had bottled calling an election in 2007 upon succeeding Blair after letting speculation run and run.
After five days of coalition talks, Cameron forged a deal with Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems.
CON: 306/36.1% LAB: 258/29%