Rishi Sunak on brink of historic hammering – as bitter battle for future of Tory party looms
RISHI Sunak is heading towards a historic hammering tonight – triggering a battle for the soul of the Tory party.
Fourteen years of Conservative rule is set to end with a crushing defeat to Labour following one of the most bruising election campaigns of modern times.
Read our general election live blog here for all the latest results
The exit poll put Labour on course for 410 seats – a majority of 170 – while the Tories were set for 131.
The rout is expected to leave the party with one of the lowest number of MPs in modern times – and is a mammoth plunge from the 365 seats won by Boris Johnson in 2019.
Conservative support collapsed across both the northern Red Wall and the party’s once-reliable southern heartlands, with Labour and the Lib Dems hoovering up seats.
Reform UK split the Tory vote, as traditional Conservatives fed up with soaring taxes and immigration made their feelings known.
Tory warnings of the dangers of a so-called Labour “super majority” appeared to have fallen on deaf ears.
Mr Sunak’s failure to neutralise Nigel Farage’s insurgents will kickstart Conservative bloodletting between moderates and right-wingers.
Grassroots darling Kemi Badenoch is currently the bookies’ favourite to take the crown.
The Conservatives’ previous spell in opposition under New Labour saw four brutal leadership battles before David Cameron finally returned them to power in 2010.
Mr Sunak has said he is proud of the party’s record in government which included a recovery from the financial crash, strides in education and finally achieving Brexit.
But during the campaign Sir Keir Starmer effectively highlighted the turmoil of five different PMs while punching bruises on various sleaze scandals, including Tory aides gambling on the date of the election.
While winning a fifth election in a row is unprecedented, recriminations were last night underway in Tory high command over the misery of the past six weeks.
Various gaffes like Mr Sunak returning home early from D-day commemorations and the betting saga grabbed headlines.
It added to wider structural problems like funds drying up as donors closed their chequebooks.
And candidates were furious that various Cabinet Ministers had effectively conceded defeat on the airwaves ahead of Polling Day because it dispirited their activists.
Tory HQ’s defensive strategy saw them divert resources from marginal seats to shore up ultra-safe ones – with Mr Sunak visiting constituencies with over 20,000 majorities.
Mr Sunak was last night expected to stay on as Tory chief – possibly until September – while a replacement is elected.
While he could yet cut and run, party elders fear an immediate resignation would trigger an explosive civil war.
Veteran Conservatives urged the outgoing PM to stay put and see through an orderly transition of power.
This would give the party breathing space before a contest possibly culminating at the party’s autumn conference.
Staying in post will be tough for Mr Sunak, who will suffer weeks of excruciating taunts from Sir Keir at the Commons despatch box.
Election night key timings as big beasts battle to cling on
A RUNDOWN of how the election night will unfold
1215: Tory chairman Richard Holden could be the first big beast to lose in his Basildon and Billericay seat
2.00: Tory leadership fave Kemi Badenoch is expected to win her new seat of Essex North West
2.45: Deputy PM Oliver Dowden is fighting to hang on in Hertsmere
3.00: Jeremy Corbyn could lose the Islington North seat he has held for 40 years
3.30: Penny Mordaunt’s Portsmouth North seat is facing an onslaught from Labour and could turn red
3.30: Jeremy Hunt could become the first sitting Chancellor to be ousted as the Lib Dems eye his Godalming and Ash seat
4.00: Nigel Farage will learn whether his eight shot at Parliament is successful in Clacton
4.00: Rishi Sunak should win his Yorkshire seat of Richmond and Northallerton – where he might concede the election to Labour
4.00: Reform chairman Richard Tice is hoping for victory in Boston and Skegness – the biggest Brexit-voting seat
4.15: Sir Keir Starmer will comfortably win in Holborn and St Pancras and will be the first time we hear from him
5am: Former PM Liz Truss will learn if she has hung on to Norfolk South West where she is defending a 24,000 majority
Alternatively, the outgoing PM – whose aides insist will remain an MP rather than move to California – could hand over to a “caretaker” leader.
Former leader Lord Cameron has also been speculated as a possible stand-in although this would be tricky as he is not an MP.
Allies of Mr Sunak have insisted he will do “whatever is needed of him by the party”.
Even as campaigning began “shadow leadership operations” were already getting off the ground.
Business Secretary Ms Badenoch is the 4/1 frontrunner and expected to run on an anti-woke platform having led the campaign against trans infringement on women’s rights.
Ex Home Secretary Suella Braverman and Priti Patel as former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick would offer hardline stances on borders.
Ms Braverman and Mr Jenrick have both said they are prepared to haul Britain out of the European Court of Human Rights – a touchstone issue for Tory MPs.
On Wednesday Ms Braverman said her party should “read the writing on the wall” and “prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition”.
And throughout the six week election campaign Ms Patel has flooded social media with posts pitching herself as Britain’s counter-offer to Starmerism.
From the One Nation wing of centrists, sword-wielding Penny Mordaunt could look to make her third run at the leadership, alongside outgoing Foreign Secretary James Cleverly.
Security Minister and former soldier Tom Tugendhat has also taken soundings for the role.
And outgoing Health Secretary Victoria Atkins has been touted as a fresh start for the rundown party.
One hopeful, Steve Baker, publicly declared his intention to run with days of campaigning still to go.
Mr Tugendhat and Ms Patel are both in the running at 5/1, while Ms Braverman and Mr Cleverly sit on 17/2.
Candidates with close ties to potential replacements have even begun bartering for prospective shadow opposition roles.
But much of the race will fall to who survives the march of the reds.
Surviving members of the 1922 Committee executive, who set the terms for a leadership race, are expected to meet next Tuesday.
Standard practice is for contenders to go through a series of MP-only ballots before a final two names are put to the wider party membership.
Previous elections: How the Tories gained and held power
By JACK ELSOM, Chief Political Correspondent
2019 – the Brexit election
BORIS Johnson called the 2019 general election to break the Commons deadlock over Brexit.
A coalition of Opposition parties and Tory Remainers were blocking his deal from passing and had effectively put the country in limbo.
After purging the Conservatives rebels – and battling Jeremy Corbyn to actually let him trigger the election – the date was set for December 12.
The winter campaign saw Johnson adopt an effective Get Brexit Done slogan while Labour struggled to explain their policy of holding a second referendum.
The result saw the collapse of Labour’s Red Wall fortress of northern seats who switched to back the Tories and helped them win an 80-seat landslide majority.
CON: 365/43.6% LAB: 202/32.1%
2017 – May fluffs it
THERESA May was riding high in the polls in the spring of 2017 when she decided on a walking weekend in Wales to call a snap election.
While commanding a slim majority, she wanted her own mandate having inherited No10 from David Cameron after a Tory coronation contest.
But the wheels quickly fell off her presidential-style campaign, resulting in a disastrous press conference where she infamously insisted “nothing has changed!” as her social care policy was ripped to shreds.
It cost her the Tory majority as Jeremy Corbyn performed better than expected, and May was forced to do a confidence and supply deal with the DUP.
CON: 317/42.3% LAB: 262/40%
2015 – Cameron wins majority
DAVID Cameron let his Tory-Lib Dem coalition reach its full five years, resulting in a long 2015 campaign.
He successfully turned on his own deputy PM Nick Clegg – blaming them for all the faults of their government and asking voters to help him cut them loose.
It was an effective strategy that saw him clinch a small Tory majority, the first since 1992.
CON: 330/36.1% LAB: 258/29%
2010 – Cameron falls short
AFTER 13 years of New Labour, Gordon Brown was ousted as Prime Minister – but the Tories fell short of an outright majority.
Brown had bottled calling an election in 2007 upon succeeding Blair after letting speculation run and run.
After five days of coalition talks, Cameron forged a deal with Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems.
CON: 306/36.1% LAB: 258/29%