Election night 2024: what the experts say
It’s been a chaotic election campaign. From bombshell polls to Gamblegate, tense debates and manifestos, the Conversation’s academic expert authors have covered it all.
And we’ll be bringing you more expert reaction to the results as they’re announced, as well as analysis of what they mean for whomever forms the next government (and opposition) and for the British public.
We’ll be updating this page throughout election night so bookmark it and return for the latest reactions, or follow along on X (formerly Twitter) or our new WhatsApp channel. Or check back here tomorrow morning to get the full picture of what the experts are saying.
To start things off, we’ve prepared a series of expert guides to election night itself and what to watch out for in the results.
Exit poll
The first indication of whom may have won will come shortly after the polls close at 10pm, when the results of the exit poll are released. Hannah Bunting, co-director of the Elections Centre at the University of Exeter, has explained how this poll works and why it’s usually a trustworthy guide to the final outcome:
“In most years, the exit poll has been remarkably accurate,” she writes. “In 2019, it was out by just three seats for the Conservatives. It slightly overestimated Scottish National Party and Liberal Democrat success, meaning it was 12 seats under the result Labour got. But the overall picture was strikingly similar to the eventual outcome.”
However, she also adds: “There’s always a chance the exit poll will miss something – and that’s slightly more likely this year, in particular.”
The results
We should have the first results of some individual constituency battles by midnight. Jonathan Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, has prepared a useful timeline of when some of the key seats will be declared in the hours following that (things might get particularly interesting after 3am), and what will happen once it’s confirmed who will form the next government (presuming there’s a clear winner).
Read more: Election 2024: what happens on the big day – and at what time
Key races
Every race is important to the constituents voting in it, but some seats will be more important than others to our overall sense of how each party has performed. Oliver Heath and Humphrey Southall, experts in voting behaviour and political geography respectively, have laid out for us which constituencies most commonly act as bellwethers for the election as a whole.
“Some of these seats will be easier for Labour to win than others,” they write. “In Hendon, London, Labour were only eight percentage points behind the Conservatives in 2019. But in Cannock Chase in Staffordshire, Labour faces a tougher task.
"Despite residents backing Tony Blair’s New Labour in 1997, 2001, and 2005, Labour’s support among residents declined from 55% in 1997 to just 25% in 2019. The Conservatives took 68% of the vote in 2019, making Cannock Chase one of the safer Tory seats in the country (47th of 650). If Labour does end up winning there, the Tories will be in for a very bad night indeed.”
They also explain which are the most marginal and volatile seats, which could also provide interesting indications of how things have gone. These include Clacton – the seat being contested by Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage
Read more: Election 2024: these are the races to watch
What counts as a good night for each party?
For a bigger picture of just how well or badly each party is performing, you can use this guide by Louise Thompson, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Manchester. She breaks down the status of each party going in to the election and what they will all be hoping for.
“The Conservatives are almost guaranteed to be sitting on the opposition benches in the next parliament, with one recent poll suggesting they could fall to just 66 seats – their worst electoral performance ever,” she writes. “This could put them in dangerous territory. It would be a humiliation for Sunak if the party performed so poorly that it fell into third place behind the Liberal Democrats.”
Remember to bookmark and return to this page throughout the night for the latest updates, or follow along on X (formerly Twitter) or our new WhatsApp channel.
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