The Polls Matter More Than Ever Now

We at the Washington Monthly have long counseled against panicking over early trial heat polls of the contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Just last month we showed how June polls are notoriously not predictive of the November outcome.

But the first batch of polls sampled in July may well determine who is on the ballot in November.

First, here’s what’s currently leading the Washington Monthly website:

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The Trump Immunity Decision Is Even Worse Than You Think: Caroline Fredrickson of the Open Markets Institute explains how the Supreme Court’s ruling adopts “the extreme version of the unitary executive theory pushed by the Right for decades.” Click here for the full story.

I Worked for and Support Joe Biden. We Need Radical Candor From His Team—and Those Who Want Him to Quit the Race: Jonah Blank, a former aide to then-Senator Biden, calls for “telling and owning your awkward truths.” Click here for the full story.

The Supreme Court Comes for the Homeless: Legal Affairs Editor Garrett Epps dissects the majority opinion in the City of Grants Pass v. Johnson case. Click here for the full story.

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So far, following the June 27 debate debacle, Biden and his campaign team have prevented an exodus of support from other party leaders and major donors.

Helping maintain that united front are the immediate post-debate polls—sampled in the last days of June, showing little movement—suggesting that the debate hasn’t impacted the trajectory of the race.

But the Biden team is well aware that multiple days of media coverage replaying Biden’s lowlights and amplifying calls to withdraw could negatively impact the next batch of polls.

A Biden campaign memo released Saturday sought to inoculate the candidate from such a development: “If we do see changes in polling in the coming weeks, it will not be the first time that overblown media narratives have driven temporary dips in the polls.”

This is unlikely to provide a big enough dose of vaccine.

Overblown media narratives can be corrected. Theoretically, correction could happen organically, as voters revert to comparing an aging Biden to a convicted Trump.

More plausibly, correction will require extra effort on Biden’s part, submitting himself to more unscripted scrutiny to assuage concerns.

Considering that Biden went into the debate slightly behind, I can’t presume the damage will be repaired organically.

The obvious rationale for the Biden campaign to propose a June debate in the first place was that the preexisting media narrative about Biden’s age needed correction, so maybe a decent early debate performance would do the trick.

Instead the narrative was further fed.

Biden, apparently, isn’t rushing to schedule a high-profile press conference, hard-hitting interview or televised town hall.

Anything unscripted comes with risk. But risk of a sharp dip in the polls already looms, which would pose an existential threat to Biden’s candidacy, and perhaps, his presidency.

Biden is known to take his time with decisions, unfazed by the hyperactive 24-7 news cycle.

This time, time is not his ally.

The incumbent and his inner circle cannot assume public loyalty from elected officials can be sustained if Trump builds a wider lead. The argument that poll dips can be temporary will not hold if Biden isn’t providing evidence he will make it temporary, especially with so few days between now and the Democratic National Convention.

Statistical hemorrhaging would likely prod top Democrats to make the grave pilgrimage to the White House and say: it’s time. Such a meeting would leak to the press and engulf the campaign.

But even a status quo in the polling is not terribly reassuring. Again, Biden is already behind.

Yes, the deficit is small and surmountable. But surmounting it likely requires convincing wary voters he can hack four more years in the job.

I have long argued Biden is poised to win, as no incumbent in 100 years has lost during an improving economy. Concern about age is arguably the only thing holding him back. (As for the other issues that have dogged him, inflation has considerably cooled, and Biden’s new border crackdown has slashed the number of illegal crossings.)

Things can happen between now and November to positively change the trajectory of the race for Biden, and refocus voter attention on the strengthening economy and the unhinged Trump. But the debate was supposed to be one of those things.

Now he needs a different thing. A 60 Minutes interview. A CNN town hall. A prime-time White House press conference. A face-off with a Fox News personality. And, of course, he needs to ably perform.

Otherwise, bad poll numbers may come soon, and Biden won’t be able to convince his own party he can turn them around.

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Best,

Bill Scher, Washington Monthly politics editor

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