Do these potential Biden replacements have what it takes to beat Trump?
The panic following last week’s disastrous debate performance by President Biden has shifted the spotlight to potential replacements for the president at the top of the Democratic ticket, though most would still likely be underdogs against former President Trump.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are two names that have emerged as potential replacements for Biden if he were to leave the race, but both have trailed behind Trump in polling of a hypothetical matchup.
Whitmer would fare the best in a matchup with Trump, with a Fox News poll from November showing the Democratic governor within the margin of error of the former president, garnering 46% of the support of registered voters compared to 48% for Trump.
The two-term governor of the crucial Midwestern swing state could be an attractive option for Democrats, though Whitmer has reportedly expressed annoyance that her name is being mixed in as a potential replacement for Biden. Responding to a recent Politico report that the Michigan governor warned the Biden campaign the president no longer had a shot at winning her home state following the debate, Whitmer took to social media and argued anyone who thinks she would make such a claim is "full of s---."
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If Whitmer were unwilling to step up for Biden, Newsom, who has been one of the more visible Democrats supporting Biden, would make a natural choice to replace the president if he were to end his campaign.
California’s Democratic governor ran slightly worse against Trump in the November poll, garnering 45% of the support of registered voters compared to 49% for the former president.
Like Whitmer, Newsom has distanced himself from the idea that he would replace Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.
"I would never turn my back on President Biden. Never turn my back on President Biden. I don't know a Democrat in my party that would do so. And especially after tonight, we have his back," Newsom said shortly after Biden’s debate performance. "We run, not the 90-yard dash. We are all in. We're going to double down in the next few months. We're going to win this election."
Notably, both Newsom and Whitmer performed better in the poll than Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris, who has also been floated as a potential replacement for Biden, trailed Trump by five points in the poll, garnering 45% support compared to Trump’s 50%. The two Democratic governors also compared favorably to Biden’s number, who the poll found losing the race to Trump by four points, with Newsom tying that mark and Whitmer besting it by two points.
Another option is Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who has proved popular in typically red Kentucky.
While the Fox News poll did not feature Beshear in a hypothetical matchup with Trump, the Democratic governor’s ability to win over Trump voters in two elections could appeal to Democrats looking to defeat the former president in November.
In one example highlighted in a Politico report, Beshear was able to flip Kentucky’s deeply red Perry County during his 2023 re-election bid, a county that supported Trump over Biden by a resounding 77-22 margin in 2020. Just three years later, Beshear was able to carry the country with a 56-44 margin, a dramatic 65- point swing.
According to a Morning Consult poll conducted in April, Beshear enjoys a 65% approval rating in typically-red Kentucky, making him the most popular Democratic governor in the country and the fourth most popular governor overall.
In comments to reporters Monday, Beshear acknowledged that Biden had a "rough" debate performance, but also said he had no desire to replace the president at the top of the ticket.
"Well, the debate performance was rough. It was a very bad night for the president," the Kentucky governor said. "But he is still the candidate. Only he can make decisions about his future candidacy, so as long as he continues to be in the race, that’s important."