Emmys update: ‘The Bear’ season 3 boosts odds for season 2
Although 2023 Emmy nominations voters were able to view the entire second season of “The Bear” while judging the merits of its first, the team behind the FX series did not employ a similar strategy in 2024. Nonetheless, the newly released third season will still influence TV academy members as they spend part of August deciding whether season two is worthy of any wins. The latest episodes have already impacted the mindsets of Gold Derby’s 2024 Emmy predictors, who have collectively boosted its odds in several categories over the past week.
As has been the case since this Emmys season began, “The Bear” currently holds over 80% of the Best Comedy Series win votes in our predictions center. Even now that our number of participating readers exceeds 3,000, none of this category’s other candidates have managed to crack 10%. “The Bear” is also expected to dominate five of the six comedy acting races, wherein lead actress Ayo Edebiri, supporting players Liza Colón-Zayas and Lionel Boyce, and guest actors Jon Bernthal and Will Poulter all just improved upon their late June odds.
Also steadily rising in the acting ranks is “Hacks,” which has remained “The Bear’s” strongest competitor all season. Since last Tuesday, supporting actor Paul W. Downs and guest actress Helen Hunt have moved into the first alternate positions just outside of our predicted lineups, bumping Bowen Yang (“Saturday Night Live”) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“Only Murders in the Building”). Downs already has the backing of our editors and Top 24 users, while his most frequent scene partner, Meg Stalter, has shot up to 10th place on the main supporting actress list.
Since she recently reclaimed the second place slot in the movie/limited supporting actress race, it appears inevitable that Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer”) will soon displace frontrunner Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”), especially since only one of our predictor subgroups (the experts) aren’t forecasting her win. Other generally predicted nominees who moved closer to the top of their lists this week are Steve Martin (comedy actor, “Only Murders in the Building”), Reese Witherspoon (drama actress, “The Morning Show”), and “The Voice” (competition program).
Proving to be one of this year’s most dynamic categories is Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor, where Finn Bennett (“True Detective”) knocked Hugh Grant (“The Regime”) out of our predicted lineup last week. Now, both are two pegs lower following the ascension of Sam Spruell (“Fargo”) and Tom Goodman-Hill (“Baby Reindeer”). Given that Goodman-Hill is also now one of our Top 24 users’ predicted nominees, these featured actors’ placements are far from settled.
The Top 24 users also presently stand alone in predicting bids for Maya Rudolph (“Loot”), Maya Erskine (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”), Tokuma Nishioka (“Shōgun”), Naomi Watts (“Feud”), and Lily Gladstone (“Under the Bridge”). Other performers with the support of just one predictor group each are expert picks Yang and Grant and editor favorites Jessica Lange and Kathy Bates (both of “The Great Lillian Hall”).
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
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