Sole moderate candidate leads Iran presidential vote amid low turnout

dubai, united arab emirates — The low-key moderate candidate is leading the vote count in Iran's snap presidential election among a tightly controlled group of four candidates loyal to the supreme leader at a time of growing public frustration and Western pressure.  With more than 3.8 million ballots from Friday's election counted so far, Massoud Pezeshkian won over 1,595,000 votes, while his hardline challenger former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili gained about 1,594,000, Interior ministry official Mohsen Eslami told state TV early Saturday.   While some insiders said the turnout was around 40%, lower than expected by Iran's clerical rulers, witnesses told Reuters that polling stations in Tehran and some other cities were not crowded.   Iran's Tasnim news agency said a run-off election was "very likely" to pick the next president following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.   Vote unlikely to shift policies The election coincides with escalating regional tension due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear program.   While the election is unlikely to bring a major shift in the Islamic Republic's policies, its outcome could influence the succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's 85-year-old supreme leader, in power since 1989.  The clerical establishment sought a high turnout to offset a legitimacy crisis fueled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedom.   The next president is not expected to usher in any major policy shift on Iran's nuclear program or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters.  However, the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran's foreign and domestic policy.  A hardline watchdog body, made up of six clerics and six jurists aligned with Khamenei, approved only six presidential candidates from an initial pool of 80. Two hardline candidates subsequently dropped out.  Limited choices  Three candidates are hardliners and one is a low-profile comparative moderate, backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years.  A source close to Pezeshkian had earlier told Reuters that "so far, from the votes counted in small towns and villages, Pezeshkian is ahead of his rivals."   Prominent among the remaining hardliners are Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, parliament speaker and former commander of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, and Jalili, who served for four years in Khamenei's office.  Critics of Iran's clerical rule say that low turnouts in recent years show the system's legitimacy has eroded. Turnout was 48% in the 2021 presidential election and a record low of 41% in a parliamentary election in March.  "Based on unconfirmed reports, the election is very likely heading to a second round. Based on the votes counted so far, Jalili and Pezeshkian will compete in a run-off election," Tasnim reported.  If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one vote from all ballots cast, including blank votes, a run-off between the top two candidates is held on the first Friday after the result is declared.  All four candidates have vowed to revive the flagging economy, beset by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions re-imposed since 2018, after the United States ditched Tehran's 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers.  "I think Jalili is the only candidate who raised the issue of justice, fighting corruption and giving value to the poor. ... Most importantly, he does not link Iran's foreign policy to the nuclear deal," said Farzan, a 45-year-old artist in the city of Karaj.  Divided voters  Pezeshkian is faithful to Iran's theocratic rule, but advocates detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalization and political pluralism.  "We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior toward women," Pezeshkian said after casting his vote.  He was referring to the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 while in morality police custody for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.   The unrest sparked by Amini's death spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran's clerical rulers in years.   Pezeshkian's chances hinge on reviving the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls for the last four years as a mostly youthful population chafes at political and social curbs. He could also benefit from his rivals' failure to consolidate the hardline vote.  "I feel Pezeshkian represents both traditional and liberal thoughts," said architect Pirouz, 45, who said he had planned to boycott the vote until he learned more about Pezeshkian's plans.   In the past few weeks, Iranians have made wide use of the hashtag #ElectionCircus on X, with some activists at home and abroad calling for a boycott, saying a high turnout would only serve to legitimize the Islamic Republic.  "The youth were punished ... young girls were killed on the streets. ... We can't easily move on from that. ... After all that happened, it's unconscionable to vote," said 55-year-old writer Shahrzad Afrasheh.   In the 2022-2023 protests, more than 500 people including 71 minors were killed, hundreds were injured and thousands arrested, rights groups said.