Double Trouble: Mariners vs. Twins Series Preview

The Mariners limp home to start a long homestand beginning with a series against the Twins.

The Mariners finally return home after a long and disappointing road trip. When they left Seattle a week and a half ago, they were 8.5 games ahead in the AL West — and that gap increased to 10 games after their win in the first game of their road trip in Cleveland. Their division lead has been whittled down to 4.5 games thanks to their 3-7 showing over their last 10 games and the simultaneous charge up the standings by the Astros. That makes this homestand against some of the toughest teams in the AL all the more important. Not only will the M’s be facing some tough, playoff-caliber competition, they’re suddenly being forced to defend their division lead too.

The Twins have been a bit overshadowed by the excellent play of the Guardians and the surprising season of the Royals, but they’ve overcome a pretty rough start to the season to firmly establish themselves as one of the better teams in the American League. That shouldn’t be too surprising since they won the division last year and the bulk of their roster carried over to this year, but they’re also seven games behind Cleveland which gives the illusion of second-tier status. Make no mistake, these Twins are a dangerous ballclub.

If you’re feeling particularly cynical about the Mariners odds of holding onto their division lead, this series against Minnesota holds even more importance; should the Astros surpass Seattle in the standings, the Twins are one of the key challengers vying for a Wild Card berth. Minnesota has already won three of four in the head-to-head matchup — that’s the first tiebreaker in the standings — so the Mariners would need to secure a sweep in this series to flip that tiebreaker in the off chance they end up with the same record in the Wild Card standings at the end of the season.

The last time these two teams faced each other, both Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton were on the IL. Both have since returned, though Lewis has made a much larger impact in his limited time since recovering from a hamstring injury suffered on Opening Day. Since being activated off the IL on June 4, Lewis has crushed nine home runs and slashed .286/.356/.688 in 20 games. Not to be overlooked, Buxton has hit a lot better this month after struggling during the first two months of the season; he’s posted a .289/.337/.526 slash line this month. If you look at their month-by-month splits, it seems like every hitter in the Twins lineup is surging in June; Carlos Santana (189 wRC+ in June), Carlos Correa (185), Jose Miranda (172), and Willi Castro (163) are all enjoying their best months of production.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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From a previous series preview:

Bailey Ober uses his gigantic 6-foot-9 frame to generate 96th percentile extension on all of his pitches. That helps his otherwise unremarkable velocity play up significantly and creates a unique release point simply due to the height he’s releasing the ball. He has a pretty standard three-quarters arm angle, but because he’s so tall it does some weird things with the movement of his pitches and their approach angle as they cross the plate. It’s why his fastball has one of the most extreme batted ball profiles in baseball — batters almost never put it in play on the ground and the pitch generates an extremely high popup rate. His best pitch is his changeup and he commands all four pitches in his arsenal extremely well.

Ober allowed two runs on three hits in five innings in his last outing against the Mariners.

From a previous series preview:

Pablo López improved his strikeout rate by nearly six points last year thanks to a brand-new sweeper that he added to his repertoire upon joining the Twins in the (other) big Luis Arraez trade a couple offseasons ago. That new pitch gave him a consistent breaking ball to pair with his already excellent changeup. With those two plus secondaries under his belt, he raised his ceiling from a solid starter to a true frontline ace. This year, his results have been a little unfortunate despite peripherals that look better than they did last season. His ERA is nearly a run higher than his FIP thanks to some uncharacteristic struggles with runners on base.

López struck out 10 in his previous start against the Mariners, allowing just a single run on four hits in 6.1 innings.

Joe Ryan has taken a big step forward this year after flirting with long-term success over the last few years. His fastball is an outstanding pitch with elite carry at the top of the zone that produces both whiffs and weak contact. He struggled with finding a consistent secondary pitch to keep batters off his heater, experimenting with two different sliders over the last few years, one a harder gyro variety and the other a slower sweeper. The real key to his breakout has been a splitter that plays off his four-seamer and gives him a true weapon to keep left-handed batters at bay. He’s added five mph to his offspeed pitch this year and that’s turned it into one of the best splitters in baseball.

The Big Picture:

Following their sweep of the Orioles last weekend, the Astros won a pair of games against the Rockies earlier this week to extend their winning streak to seven games; they’ll travel to New York to take on the red-hot Mets this weekend. While Houston surges up the standings, the Rangers continue to falter. They were swept by the Brewers earlier this week and lost the first game of a big four-game series in Baltimore yesterday. Speaking of the Orioles, they surpassed the Yankees to take the lead in the AL East, though most of that is due to New York’s own struggles. The Yanks have won just three of their last 13 games and lost the first game of their four-game set against the Blue Jays yesterday.